THE DRUMBEATS ARE GETTING LOUDER

PART TWO

by Holly Horning

Let’s continue the conversation we started on Tuesday about the multiple media reports that have been critical of the Tigers’ rebuild and their GM.  If you haven’t read the blog or are a glutton for punishment and want to review it again, here is the link:

https://totallytigers.wordpress.com/2022/06/27/the-drumbeats-are-getting-louder/

First of all, my apologies go out to those of you who needed a therapy session or some quality time with an emotional support animal after reading Tuesday’s blog.  For the record, I had to have a cocktail after writing it.

But you know what?  It’s actually a good thing that this is all coming out.

The elephant in the room is no longer being ignored.  People are no longer staying silent.  Much of the national media is now echoing what many of us have been saying for years.

That this rebuild has been horrible and that the GM is not capable of achieving any sense of measurable success or moving this team forward.

Once something like this gets out into the open, it’s hard to put the genie back in the bottle.

And there’s nothing like repeated media analyses that all come to the same conclusion in order to inspire change.

I seriously don’t see how things can possibly continue as they have been.  The spotlight is now shining brightly on the Tigers’ problems and the calls for action will only increase, not go away.

Ironically, since Tuesday’s blog, yet another national piece came out yesterday (in The Athletic) that is highly critical of the Tigers’ rebuild. It compared the Tigers’ process to that of the Giants.

To quickly summarize the journalist’s points, both teams started their rebuild in 2017.  The Tigers went the tanking route.  The Giants did not.

San Francisco spent only 4 years rebuilding.  They won 107 games last year and are over .500 so far this season.

The Tigers are in year #6 (officially, but you could add another year or two) and nowhere close to being competitive.  They are described as having single-handedly killed the strategy that tanking is the way to success.

The tanking method is no guarantee of winning.  It is dependent upon whom is leading the rebuild. 
And in this case, the Tigers were led by Al Avila.  The Giants?  By Farhan Zaidi.

That’s a Grand Canyon size difference.

So what could happen to the Tigers going forward?

Let’s start with Manager A. J. Hinch.

We now know that he doesn’t have an opt-out which was verified through multiple sources by The Athletic writer, Cody Stavenhagen.  Hinch is believed to have a 5-year contract, not 3.

But what is interesting is his dodge of when his contract ends.  I think he’s avoiding releasing the details because it might shed some light on Al Avila’s super-duper secret contract of indeterminable length.
The common thought is that Hinch’s contract extends beyond Avila’s.  Potentially so that he might slide into the GM chair upon Avila’s departure.

For multiple reasons, it doesn’t appear likely that Hinch would want to leave despite his mysterious refusal to answer contract questions. Requesting to be released from his contract would be a disaster of the greatest magnitude for the Tigers.  It also would tamp down Hinch’s desirability with other teams if he wanted to throw his hands up after only 2 years.

Let’s remember that A. J. came to Detroit (despite interest expressed by 5 other teams) because of Scott Bream (his best friend) and that the Tigers appeared to be the quickest way for him to be promoted to GM.  It’s well-known that Hinch wants to be a GM.

Meanwhile, the Tigers have hired many new personnel with either ties to Hinch or to those with whom he is close.  He has started building his own Front Office.  And it’s a definite plus when you enter a job knowing and liking many of the people there.

We’ll come back to Hinch shortly but in the meantime, let’s talk about Chris Ilitch.

No matter what some fans say, Ilitch threw $243 mill to Al Avila to spend just on just free agents alone this year.  And for what?  Regression and another 100-loss season?

You can bet he’s not happy.  If you lost that much, would you keep your current GM simply out of loyalty?  Would you keep him and repeat the check-signing once again next year?
 
Knowing that multiple sources have questioned Al’s roster building and being quoted as saying that Avila is in over his head?

And if most GMs in baseball believe that Avila doesn’t have the acumen or savvy to do his job, you better believe that they are going to continue to prey upon him when it comes to trades.  Wanna bet that his number is on every GM’s speed dial when they need something?

Ilitch is a businessman first, baseball owner second, and I believe that he’s not stupid enough to do the same thing again next year.  I believe that he will take steps in order to ensure that his future checks are well-spent.  What those steps are is still uncertain.

But now it gets tricky.

If he removes Avila after this season, who will take over?  It seems unlikely that Hinch would be promoted after only 2 years as manager.  And with losing records to boot.  Wouldn’t he want to see more promise before promoting?

But if Ilitch hires a new GM, it won’t be good news for Hinch.  Most GMs have, on average, 5 year contracts.  Hiring someone else to take Avila’s place may be the move that tells Hinch to look elsewhere for his next job.

A further complication with keeping Hinch as the manager may result in the Tigers losing George Lombard.  There are a number of teams who are interested in bringing him in as manager.  Some as soon as next year.  Keeping everyone in the same job could end up creating a brain drain.

Now, let’s turn to Al Avila.

To reiterate, multiple reports indicate that few believe he is cut out to be the GM.  No one supports any of the moves he’s made since 2015.  And now we have a national writer who states that Avila personally killed the “tanking wins” process.

Al himself indicated before this season that “the rebuild is over.”  It’s the reason why the Tigers didn’t trade Fulmer, Soto or Cisnero last season and why they extended Schoop.  Avila believed the Tigers would be contenders this year and would need them.

To use a baseball term, this man’s thinking is so off-base.  How can someone in charge possibly believe they would be shooting for a playoff spot this year and instead are fighting to avoid a 100-loss season?

So what will Ilitch do with his current GM?

We’ve already discussed above the odds of Hinch being promoted only after 2 years.  As well, the unlikelihood of allowing his GM to continue making stupid investments that won’t work out and waste payroll dollars.

Could Chris take away some of his duties like roster building?  Could he put others in charge of it?  Or could he ensure that multiple people are involved in the final decision-making process?

Currently, Avila is the Executive VP of Baseball Operations and GM.  Could Chris “promote” him to President of Baseball Operations and thus remove him from a job in which he builds the roster?

The President of Baseball Operations is a loose term that is interpreted differently by every team.  But in general, this position is more of a big picture one while the GM job is more day-to-day.

There are some teams who have multiple GMs and they divide up the responsibilities based upon each person’s strengths.

Could the Tigers do that, effectively taking away the roster responsibilities from Al?

Could Ilitch give Hinch expanded duties where he still manages yet has a vote on who gets signed?

This really is the sticking point.  A GM who has to go but his replacement not quite yet ready to take over.
Will Ilitch be willing to waste another year and millions more on payroll by keeping Avila for 1 more year? 

To extend that rebuild yet another year? 

To watch the young top players continue to age and get a year closer to free agency while also watching that window of contention get smaller?

And to watch that fan base continue to shrink because more and more fans are being turned off by the many years of losing and unwatchable teams?  Knowing that stats show organizations start to bleed fans after 5 years and that many of them end up never coming back?

Will Chris continue along the same path as this year realizing that MLB – and now fans – know that his GM has an industry-wide reputation as not being capable in his job?

Is he willing to listen to the increasing criticism and abuse on a grander scale in 2023?

Is he willing to take on the role of “the bad guy” that Avila currently absorbs for his boss?

Ilitch is in a tough spot due to timing.  Who knows what he will do?

But the one thing he cannot do is to stand pat.  There’s way too much to lose.

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