TWO TIMES TWO FOR TUESDAY

By:  Holly Horning & Kurt Snyder

Let the games begin! The Tigers will now head into a spring training schedule with an intent on winning of course but also with a desire to shore up concerns they have lingering.

Holly and Kurt will dig into those concerns and also address the importance of winning in the spring.

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1. What are the 2 most important things the Tigers need to resolve in Spring Training?

HOLLY

While many may be focused on whether the starting rotation can stay healthy, I chose to address the two biggest problems from last year that killed so many games.

The Killer B’s: Baserunning, which took a team 2nd in offense and put it 10th in scoring runs and the bullpen, which despite the yearly cellar-dwelling stats, was used horribly.

As I wrote the other day in  https://totallytigers.wordpress.com/2016/02/21/back-to-base-icks/, the Tigers were baseball’s worst in baserunning by a mile. Not just a couple of players, not just slow players, but fast players who created negative runs. The entire team, save for one, were responsible for the net -107 runs gained. The Tigers must find a way to be able to run from 1st to 3rd more successfully as well as avoid being thrown out at home so much.

As for the bullpen, the ERA of 4.38 and BA against them of .271 is only one of the issues. But pitchers were mostly used because they were the “7th inning guy”, “8th inning guy”, etc. and very rarely due to a particular pitching situation. Some got all the work, some got very little. Is it any wonder that Alex Wilson is now shut down with the same soreness he experienced last year due to too many innings?

KURT

The Tigers have included Kirk Gibson as an additional source for making a concerted effort to improve their baserunning. He’s been asked because it’s an area where they need to exhaust all of their avenues to improve. Brad has acknowledged it as an area of concern. Unfortunately, Gibson, who barreled into second base with the best of them, now must learn the new rules himself.

The Tigers also have a centerfield position to solve. It’s an interesting dilemma as neither Gose nor Maybin tear the cover off the ball. Neither have hit for a high average in their careers.

But there are arguments for a platoon as well as arguments for handing one of them the job outright. To me, if they send anyone to the bench it would be Gose because of all the tools he could offer the team; late inning defense, late inning pinch-running or even a lefty bat when needed. It will be a tough call and spring training will help to resolve it.

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2. How important will be it for the Tigers to end Spring Training with a winning record?

HOLLY

Last year taught me to change my historical answer in which the Tigers had the second worst record in spring training. And despite the mantra that “spring training doesn’t matter”, there actually is a proven correlation between the dress rehearsal and the actual season in baseball.

Since 2006, the Tigers have had only 1 losing Spring Training season. Otherwise, their records have put them anywhere from 1st to 3rd place with .600+ winning records. This is a pattern and has been mostly correct in foretelling how the team would do in the regular season for the past 10 years.

Last year, a .375 win-loss record and 7.5 GB. Granted, much of that was due to the injuries to the M&M brothers, but it should have raised a red flag.

I believe that Spring Training is the chance to see how the younger players develop, for the team to gel and for experimenting with the new. Losses on their own don’t really bother me but whole strings of losses tell me something else. Last year should have been a sign for management and coaches to really focus in on the factors causing them.

If the Tigers are to return to their established pattern, they need to finish no lower than the top 4 teams in the Grapefruit League.

KURT

Not important. Not important in the least. Sure the Tigers ran into a heavy dose of losing at the end of last season that had to shake their confidence. But this is not the same team.

This spring will be about forming a bond with the new guys that have been brought in to shore up weaknesses. They are already making news as the personalities in the bullpen may help to keep this group loose and it will be an important trait that they really haven’t had before.

I have never been one to find any kind of optimism or pessimism based on a spring training win/loss record. Too many teams have had brutal springs only to go on to win in the regular season. The same thing has happened the other way around.  Any good or bad feelings will be determined by health, which has been the death knell for this team year after year.

OWNERS’ INFLUENCE

By:  Holly Horning

Every season, fans sift through the actions taken – or not – to determine their team’s chances at winning a playoff spot.

They scrutinize the GM, manager, coaches and players. They pour over every stat for the starting rotation, analyze defensive metrics and put together starting lineups.

But there’s one thing they rarely do. They don’t consider the owner’s impact as much as they should.

Because, make no mistake, having the right kind of owner is the key to winning. Consistent winning. Division title winning. Winning that gets your team playing October baseball.

Not every owner is cut from the same cloth. Each one comes from different business backgrounds and has different reasons for owning their team. For some, it is the biggest toy to possess. For others, it’s their passion. And for the rest, it’s about making a profit or using their team to strengthen their other businesses.

Back in October, I wrote a 2-part blog that analyzed why owners do what they do. Catch them here at:

https://totallytigers.wordpress.com/2015/10/18/owners-intentions-part-one/

https://totallytigers.wordpress.com/2015/10/22/owners-intentions-part-two/

Each owner guides their team’s vision. They determine how much effort, quality and expense will be invested to obtain the desired results. While we have been blessed with an owner who puts his money where his mouth is, there are others with a priority of having a profitable team.

But profits don’t necessarily equate with having a winning team. Until recently, the lowly Houston Astros were baseball’s most profitable team. Juxtapose that with the Tigers who have had years of payroll exceeding revenue.

Where it gets tricky is understanding how and when, if at all, the owner gets involved. Some stand back and don’t create a sound and detailed vision for their team. Others get too involved and meddle in their GM’s work.  The rest are somewhere in between.

Owners generally fall into 3 categories:

1. Hanging in There: Typically consistent performance that is neither great nor poor as a result of the owner being relatively passive.

2. Steady and Competitive: A long-term vision and development in which the owner sets the standards and hires the right people to implement.

3. Roller Coaster: An owner who changes his mind frequently and meddles with the vision, producing some great highs but mixed more often with huge lows.

Unfortunately, the Roller Coaster owners far outweigh the rest. They are the teams who spend great sums of money, change their minds on a whim and go through management as quickly as a hot knife cuts through butter. Some of those teams include:

Angels – An owner with a wife who is best friends with his manager’s spouse. A guy who gave his manager a 10-year contract and supported him over the GM, who was forced to leave. A guy who spends $165 million on payroll yet can’t sign enough offense to pair with Mike Trout.

Dodgers – A large group of big money and former non-MLB jocks with a payroll that dwarfs all other teams. A GM with his power taken away and a manager so dissatisfied with the Front Office that he kept threatening to quit.

Marlins – Owner Jeffrey Loria has hired 7 managers in the past 5 years. He recently brought Don Mattingly on board primarily because Donnie Baseball was his favorite player growing up. ‘Nuff said.

Nationals – Alternating years of high wins followed by huge performance drops. Four GMs, 8 managers and 1 FBI investigation in 15 years. Clubhouse infighting and underperformance issues for the past 4 years which helps explain why the team chokes (sorry, I couldn’t help it) so often.

Orioles – Under former owner Edward Bennett Williams, they were the best-run organization in baseball for decades. The new owner dissolved the proven Orioles Way and placed a priority on saving money. Both the GM and manager have either attempted or hinted at wanting to leave.

Red Sox – In 2011, the Front Office and manager quit en masse because of ownership. Two new GMs in 4 years and a new President of Baseball Operations who will also perform the GM’s job despite hiring one. Without even a game played, the newest public battle has emerged between a player and Front Office over his weight. Confusing? You bet.

Say what you will about the late George Steinbrenner, but the man got the job done year after year. Now that his sons are running the team, the Yankees have been in experimental mode as they attempt to find a sustainable middle ground.

They, along with the Braves, are currently teams in transition. History is yet to be written on how these two teams will define themselves now that the torch has been passed.

But on the radar are teams with new owners who are rising quickly and threatening to become some of baseball’s best. Organizations that have clearly defined their vision and brought in the right people. They include the Astros, Cubs and Rangers. No surprise that these teams have improved significantly (barring injuries) every year since changing ownership.

Add the Cubs to the very short list of organizations who have clearly laid out a precise vision with a goal of long-term and consistent success. They join the Cardinals and Giants.

So what about the Tigers? Where do they fit in?

Mr. I has taken the Tigers into the Steady and Competitive category. A generous owner who willingly opens his wallet when he sees the need and rarely gets involved with the team’s vision unless he sees a potential impasse.

If any criticism is to be handed out, it’s that Mr. I is too loyal and patient with his top employees. A GM who couldn’t reach the stated goal even with an endless budget and 14 years in which to do it. A manager of 8 years with only 1 World Series win to his name and a pattern of squeaking into the Division title on the last couple days of the season despite possessing an immense amount of talent.

He’s also been tied to several unwise contracts which appear to be the only evidence of owner meddling. One, born out of desperation, to a player he’s known since his dad played for the team. A contract the Tigers are still paying through 2020. The other to another favorite player on the wrong side of 30 and limited to the DH role.

Good owners are very hard to come by and we Tiger fans should feel blessed to have Mr. I. But given the huge amount of money he’s spent again this year, we should hope he speaks up a little more this year if things start to go south. In this case, meddling may just be a welcomed event.

QUESTIONS, COMMENTS AND CONCERNS

By:  Kurt Snyder & Holly Horning

Saturday’s segment has become a day to touch on as many issues as possible. While the injury to Anibal Sanchez is sure to come up, what other topics have garnered their attention?

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KURT

CONCERN

Well, here we go again. Last year, coming out of spring training, Justin Verlander was struggling with a similar injury to his right triceps muscle that Anibal Sanchez is this season. JV’s injury was considered a strain and forced him to the DL to start the year, but ended up rendering him either ineffective or unavailable for more than half of the 2015 campaign.

QUESTION

As Sanchez and the Tigers play down his recent injury, thoughts now turn to who could possibly replace him to start the season should he become unavailable. Instead of guys like Shane Green, Michael Fulmer and Matt Boyd vying for a role in the bullpen, they should now be considered candidates to start the season in the starting rotation. How quickly things turn.

QUESTION

Is it appropriate to judge our manager on a topic before any decision has actually been made? You heard the words. Despite the importance of preserving the health of Cabrera and Martinez, Brad is actually considering having Miggy play third and VMart play first right away to start the season in Miami for a two game interleague series.

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HOLLY

QUESTION

Shane Greene mentioned that his fingers turned black and blue last year when he pitched. Given his dramatic falloff, wouldn’t the manager, coaches and training staff be looking for visible clues? And if your fingers are discolored, why didn’t the manager, pitching coach or trainers notice them, especially when you are visiting the mound or handing off the ball?

CONCERN

Ian Kinsler: “I still have a bad a taste in my mouth from last year. There are a bunch of particular reasons for it that I am going to keep to myself.” I don’t think I’m the only one who wants to know more and none of the Detroit papers have pursued the possible reasons. Let’s hope Mr. I and Al Avila read Ian’s comment and want to find out why he said what he did.

CONCERN

One newspaper reported late on Monday that Ausmus said there were no injuries, soreness or missed practices by any players while the other newspaper published a different quote 3 days later that indicated Brad hinted at something amiss to them on Monday. The latter publication indicated they knew Sanchez was pulled from practice on Monday yet did not publish the news until Thursday when it was evident Anibal was missing. A real concern here about what created the situation where two contradictory stories were published and where the allegiances of at least one newspaper lies in withholding a story.

REDEMPTION WEEK

By:  Holly Horning

Every industry has its busy periods and baseball is no exception. For the PR departments of each team, that period is the first week of spring training.

You see, this is redemption time. Time to get rid of whatever negative feelings are still hanging out there after last season. Time to close the loop so teams can move forward.

Where else but in sports does Jonathan Papelbon wait 5 months in order to serve up an apology for choking teammate Bryce Harper? Ohh, the Nationals’ PR Department really earned their keep for that one.

It’s all about putting that final bow on the controversies surrounding players’ actions from the previous season. Players who behaved badly. Players who had bad seasons. Players who let their team down. Players with injury concerns. And players in need of a little lovin’.

In my other line of work, PR is part of my job. But over the years, I’ve also worked with a number of public relation departments so I’ve come to learn the habits – and the signs. And this week was textbook in the Tigers’ camp.

While issues tend to get addressed shortly after they happen, fans have long memories. And if your team didn’t do so well the previous year, those fans are even more focused on what went wrong the previous year. Make no mistake, the PR departments do read the social media threads on news sites in order to get the pulse of the people. And if they keep reading negative thoughts about certain players, then their dance cards start filling up.

So why now? It’s because the media is moving into training camps and nothing sells a story like controversy. PR departments know that the reporters are going to bring up the old stories. Especially when there is little else to report in February.

Putting the players out there to specifically address last year’s issues is the equivalent of ripping off a Band-Aid in one quick move. It gets it done, it’s over and now it’s time to move on. Media disarmed.

And this is a smart move. The job of public relations is to eliminate negative topics and burnish the reputations of their employees. So they talk to the player, point out the benefits, coach them if necessary and serve them up to the reporters. This process allows them to control the spin and craft the message.

But more importantly, it allows the team to get back to business. It allows them to focus on what they need to do. And putting a positive spin on controversial issues is good for ticket sales. It’s also good in enhancing the value of any players for a future trade.

And every team performs this spring ritual. Some have more to do than others. The Tigers are in the middle of pack this year – foregoing the historic “I got kids”, chin flicks and wife-beating jokes-gone-wrong. Yet, they managed to have a nice little conga line going earlier this week.

Believe it or not, there is a hierarchy in the order of players who are diplomatically and discreetly frog-marched in front of the media. It starts with the most egregious sins and ends with the guys who make you feel warm all over. Let’s start the procession, shall we?

For the Tigers, the lead-off man was Bruce Rondon, accused of quitting on his team. JaCoby Jones, with his drug suspension followed. Iggy and his dugout dust-up batted third.

In the middle of the order were the players who had disappointing seasons, primarily due to injuries. VMart, Miggy, Greene, Sanchez and JV made their appearances to reassure everyone they were feeling great. (Note to the Tigers: There’s now a need to address Sanchez again.)

The PR department saved the best stories for last. Inspiring stories. Players who were most admired last year – or should have been. Enter James McCann, Daniel Norris and Ian Kinsler.

In this case, it’s good to be last.

ONE TOPIC – TWO TAKES

By:  Holly Horning & Kurt Snyder

Predictions. Prognostications. Projections. Pointless. Why do we bother? And why do they bother us?

Our writers take this one topic and provide their takes on the media’s perception of the Tigers and how the team will perform this season.

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Why do you think the Tigers win projection is so low?

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HOLLY

It’s interesting that there is a decided difference in assigning win totals between the media and those analysts who actually played the game. The latter are much more favorable towards the Tigers which I attribute to their deeper knowledge of the players acquired.

Yet, for the first time in many years, the Tigers aren’t forecast to take the Central. Could all the past years of success have spoiled us when it comes to expectations?

What I think is really going on is that these prognosticators are afraid of being too off the mark. If their theories are going to be wrong, they at least want to be in the neighborhood. It’s really more about their reputations than anything else.

This means they are basing their estimates upon the Tigers 2015 season in which they won 74 games. Twenty-one fewer than the Royals. And given that the Royals won the World Series, they are less likely to look closely at the changes made by both teams and even less likely to boldly predict significant changes.

Let’s face it – we tend to assign performance based upon the most recent examples. Even some of the most loyal fans don’t believe VMart will perform well again despite a consistent career of excellence.

And that’s what’s going on with the Tigers. They finished last in their division and were among the 10 worst teams in MLB last year. This is the primary reason why the media is not forecasting a larger number of wins for them.

Thirdly, many MLB analysts on both TV and radio have expressed concern over Brad Ausmus’ ability, especially given the parallel with the Nationals’ implosion last year with Matt Williams at the helm. There is a palpable lack of confidence in Brad as shown last week by a panel of 6 former All-Stars, managers and GMs who unanimously voted him as the manager most in danger.

But I think a fourth factor is the lingering concern over multiple all-star injuries and the pitching woes of last year.

Last year’s problems have turned into questions this year and taken most of the focus away from a number of significant changes and the addition of 9 new players.

As I explained in a previous blog,

https://totallytigers.wordpress.com/2016/02/18/its-good-to-be-mad/

I much prefer that the team doesn’t have that huge bulls-eye on its collective back this year. In October, I would much rather read about how the team performed beyond expectations, than how they fell short of the predictions.

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KURT

The national media paints a broad stroke on every team mainly because they can’t possibly dig as deep as say …us. While in Detroit, locally, with only one team to follow, fans and the media are closer to what has been happening with the team.

Think of all the negative vibes that the Tigers were floating in at the end of last season. That’s where the media started from in evaluating the Tigers.

The Tigers ended the season 74-87, last in the Central. The media had to have thought, wow, what a drop off for a team coming off a 92 win season and 4 straight division titles.

But we know as fans that the season officially ended on July 31st. After being stripped of Price, Soria and Cespedes, the free fall was sure to begin and it did. Does the media take that into consideration when they analyze what the team has done to improve since then? Or do they simply take a last place team with 74 wins and determine that an 8 win improvement would be pretty substantial progress?

What’s even more baffling are the Tigers’ odds to win a title. Now since we are talking Vegas, it’s just money that has determined, in less than a week, the Tigers decline from 20-1 to 30-1 odds to win it all in 2016. There really is no other rhyme or reason. And I put just as much stock in Vegas odds as I do in projected wins. Neither is based on much detail. The Tigers may not win a title, but Mike Ilitch didn’t risk the luxury tax for a .500 team.

But to be fair, the Tigers have had a difficult time staying healthy over the years and it is likely raising eyebrows. National media must wait every season for the annual injury to Miggy or VMart or JV, the 3 biggest dominos on the club. They just don’t trust the Tigers.

And I believe that regardless of how calculated and impressive the makeover, the injury bug is something that stands out when it is time to evaluate how well they will do. Oh, and Brad.

TWO TIMES TWO FOR TUESDAY

By:  Kurt Snyder & Holly Horning

Rookies. They get plenty of attention during spring training, because everyone is waiting for that next Joel Zumaya, that next Justin Verlander.  Who can help the team right away and who needs more time? Our writers spend this Tuesday looking at the rooks.

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1. Which rookies best serve the Tigers by making the team out of spring training?

KURT

There is really only one rookie to consider. And Michael Fulmer is probably the most popular choice even though we have hardly seen him pitch. But he comes with great advanced billing. The team wants what fans want, to see him emerge from spring training as someone ready to make a huge impact.

But it’s a lot to ask of someone who has barely sniffed Triple A ball, to come in, set the world on fire and dominate in the bullpen or in the rotation. I am ready to love Michael Fulmer. But I haven’t seen him pitch. However, if there is going to be a rookie to emerge, you have to figure it would be him wouldn’t you?

Actually, it would be of the Tigers’ benefit that Fulmer begin the season in Toledo. It would mean they are strong without him to start the season, with another serious gun waiting in the holster if they need him; a luxury of which they haven’t been familiar.

HOLLY

I need to preface my comments and include players who have had a taste of playing at the MLB-level.

I’m not a fan of taking, what appears to be, solid starters and turning them into relievers, especially if they are young and promising. We saw what happened when the Tigers did that to Porcello and Smyly – setting them back in their development and altering their approach to the game.

But I would do that with Shane Greene and only because he is recovering from his aneurysm and surgery. He doesn’t need the immediate pressure of making the starting rotation right out of spring training, especially given his train wreck of a season last year.

Let him ease back in and regain his strength and confidence. He’ll be the first choice for those spot starts and potentially may even take over a starting role later in the season. We saw what he was capable of doing before injury took its toll so Toledo would not offer much of a challenge.

Daniel Norris, I believe, is a solid bet for the starting rotation with his full arsenal, confidence and major-league attitude. The Tigers need him and Greene to solidify as starters given that the rest of the rotation is 30 years or older.

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2. Which rookies are better off being sent down to AAA?

KURT

It sounds like Fulmer is the closest to breaking the ice on the “tall buildings” but still should start the season in the Toledo. Matt Boyd, in his short stint with the Tigers last fall, showed he’s got talent and has a big future with this team. But you can see he needs more development.

If you consider Rondon a rookie, I believe, unfortunately that what ails him will not be solved overnight and he needs another Toledo stint. Speaking of controversy, the last thing the Tigers are going to do with JaCoby Jones is promote him after a 50-game suspension.

Unfortunately, Stephen Moya is again Toledo-bound as well as Tyler Collins. Moya’s stock is falling and I believe he should be dealt. Collins has that lefty bat, but just isn’t athletic enough, which may be holding him back.

Lastly, Dixon Machado, who someday will be roaming Comerica, will definitely head back down. There are too many guys ahead of him at this point.

HOLLY

Analysts say the mark of a good team is not rushing players to the majors. The Tigers did it at an alarming rate with their pitchers last year and now they have to deal with repairing the mental damage inflicted upon some very young and inexperienced guys. Players like Nesbitt and Rondon who need to get their confidence back and regain perspective.

JaCoby Jones, primarily for his suspension, needs to return to Toledo, but Machado needs to join him. Both will progress more quickly with regular playing time, important because they will probably be needed sometime this season in Detroit.

Tyler Collins, who looks almost ready and Stephen Moya, who still needs to address the high strikeouts, are victims of the overpopulated outfield, so back they go.

But it’s the pitchers who come under greatest scrutiny. Boyd, however promising, did not have a good record or ERA last year and Fulmer is also seen as a top-tier starter but he’s never pitched beyond AA.

Both need to be expanding and refining their pitch arsenals which can only be done with regular mound work. Sitting in a bullpen and getting an inning here or there is not the way to develop valuable assets.

BACK TO BASE-ICKS

By:  Holly Horning

How bad were the Tigers in baserunning last year? Bad. I mean, reeeeally bad.

(This is where you ask “How bad were they?”)

It’s not enough to mention that they ranked dead last in baserunning. The Tigers were a -107 net runs gained by baserunning. The next closest team was the Dodgers with -71. The better teams had +110 and up to +142.

(Warning! Graphic stats.)

To translate these stats even further, consider:

– They made 60 outs on the bases last year.

– 25 of those outs were made at home.

– They were picked off 19 times.

– The differential between runs created and runs scored was -76.

– They went from 1st to 3rd only 73 times out of 321 chances.

– They went from 2nd to home 100 times out of 183 chances.

– They went from 1st to home 29 times out of 75 chances.

– Only the Dodgers and Orioles took fewer bases last year.

– Ian Kinsler, one of the better baserunners (+212 in his career) was picked off 8 times and thrown out 6 more times.

But is baserunning all about speed? If it was, then we could understand why the Tigers don’t perform as well as other teams given some of their big, powerful players who naturally run more slowly than the lean-and-mean ones.

Baserunning is a bigger and complex topic that also adds strategy and the mental game to the physical skills. It includes developing and honing instincts, integrating it with situational hitting, taking solid risks, playing mental games with the pitcher and taking leads. Additionally, it also means training runners to read the ball and fielders better and look for opportunities to take advantage of them.

Where the stats really get interesting is with the multiple rankings of MLB’s worst baserunners. There are rarely any Tigers who make the top 10-15 lists of slowest or worst baserunners. In just two of over a dozen compilations, is Victor Martinez mentioned. No one else. (For the record, Prince Fielder is one who makes every list.)

But Miggy is not a member of any of these lists. Time to kill the hypothesis that the Tigers’ bad base-running is due to the Miggy-Martinez batting sequence.

The stats don’t show this to be true. But what they do show is that the Tigers penchant for bad base-running is not the result of a couple slow runners. It is the result of a team-wide problem.

Only 1 regular starter last year (Kinsler) avoided producing negative runs. You may not be surprised that Castellanos is bad on the basepaths, but did you know that McCann and Iggy are worse than Miggy and VMart?

The descent into baserunning oblivion started in earnest 5 years ago and has only picked up speed. (Pun not intended.) While Brad was lauded for making this a topic to address when he first came on board, he did not realize until after the season started that the team did not have anywhere near the skill set needed.

While this lack of foresight can be attributed to a guy with no managerial experience, Jim Leyland also failed to address it in his tenure as well. Could be he was waiting for those 3-run homers instead.

So what do the Tigers need to address as they seek to improve their running game?

– An emphasis on fundamentals and hopefully what is now part of the new Tigers’ Way manual.

– Evaluating how effective Omar, the official baserunning coach, really is.

– Working with Dave Clarke on his method for handling runners from 2nd base to home.

– How to integrate running with small ball and situational hitting.

– How to motivate players to buy in and be receptive to learning and practicing unfamiliar strategies.

– Penalizing players who ignore coaches and run through the signs.

– Keeping players from daydreaming on the bases and getting picked off.

– Targeting rookies/sophomores, characteristically the worst baserunners, for more practice.

With the signing of Maybin and Upton, the Tigers at least can add 2 players who have career positive net runs gained.

The strategy of hiring outside baserunning coaches over the past 2 years has not made a difference. Let’s hope Kirk Gibson has a better way of reaching the players.

QUESTIONS, COMMENTS AND CONCERNS

By:  Holly Horning & Kurt Snyder

Saturday’s segment has become a day to touch on as many issues as possible. Once again, readers have the opportunity to read and think about a wide variety of topics.

Take a look and see what our writers have on their minds this week.

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HOLLY

QUESTION

Omar Vizquel has been named manager of the Venezuelan team in the World Baseball Classic. It’s always been rumored that he wants to manage an MLB team someday, however his involvement as the Tigers’ baserunning coach and in 2014’s shortstop debacle doesn’t paint a positive picture. Will Venezuela’s performance and finish help polish his resume?

COMMENT

The Red Sox farm system was ranked #1 last summer. After trading for a reliever, in which Dave Dombrowski gave up a whopping 4 prospects all highly ranked within both Boston’s system and MLB’s, the Red Sox ranking has dropped to #10. It appears Dave is staying with his m.o. of stripping the farm system and overpaying for talent.

CONCERN

The Tigers televised games have been losing viewership for the past two years. The move last year to add Gibby and Morris reflected their attempt to right the ship as does this year’s plan to occasionally swap Mario Impemba and Dan Dickerson. Payroll continues to exceed revenue while future payroll commitments total 3/4th of a billion dollars – putting the Tigers in jeopardy if they can’t reverse the trend in advance of a new tv contract set for 2018.

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KURT

COMMENT

The team is embarking on another re-rack, now swapping around their TV and radio play-by-play guys. I know it is just a pilot program right now with only 10-20 games where Mario and Dan will switch places, but the organization is clearly looking for a fresh idea.  I think the logical move is to consider addition by subtraction in the interests of something new …

COMMENT

While we are all ramping up for baseball again, let’s take a detour and acknowledge something really  important.  Hearing that Mike Aviles’ daughter is cancer-free after a bone marrow transplant is the kind of story to which we should direct our focus.  After Chad Carr, the 5-year-old grandson of former University of Michigan coach Lloyd Carr lost his battle, it’s nice to hear some encouraging news on that front.

QUESTION

What would be the most exciting storyline to emerge from spring training?  To me, it would be Michael Fulmer giving the Tigers no choice but to bring him north.  Having Fulmer and Norris make meaningful contributions to the team this year would  make us feel pretty darn good about the return on a couple of the big trades last season.

 

IT’S GOOD TO BE MAD

By:  Holly Horning

Oddsmakers and analysts alike have now weighed in on where they expect all 30 teams to finish in their divisions once the dust has settled in early October. Most of them have relegated the Tigers to the bottom half of the AL Central.

And I am most happy they did.

Say whaaaat?

Yes, you read that correctly. I absolutely detest all those reports predicting the future or giving odds about how a team is going to do because these soothsayers never get it right. You won’t find me reading these reports beyond the headlines or making a comment in a sports-related social media thread.

But the biggest reason I dislike these crystal ball statements is that they place a heavy burden upon the front-runners. They often create unreal expectations based solely upon the stats on the paper and don’t take into consideration the mental fortitude of the players or all of the other factors and circumstances that create a championship team. Their analysis is one-dimensional.

And while veteran players are more likely to take these guesstimates with a grain of salt, the guys who are rookies or have never played for a title are probably more likely to embrace the odds.

I am thankful that, for the first time in years, the Tigers aren’t named as the team to beat. Not expected to win their division and certainly not considered to be playing baseball in October.

And that is a good thing.

The pressure is off. The spotlight has been taken away. And hopefully, the players are mad. Mad that their talent is being underestimated. Mad that their egos have been bruised. Mad that they’ve been given up for dead.

They can now fully focus on playing the game and not on the pressure of meeting front-runner expectations. Remember all those years hearing how they would run away with the division only to win it in the last week or on the last day? Since the push to win it all starting in 2006, the Tigers have had 4 years of winning the division by a single game – and 2 years of losing it by 1 game. But only 2 years of winning it by more.

I keep asking myself why a team so loaded with talent would often squeak by at the last minute. I know I’m not the only one who didn’t sleep well at night after watching them lose their leads in September.

And all those reports naming the Tigers as most likely to win the World Series? What did it get them? A single win out of 8 games played.

But don’t solely blame the Tigers. It happens to every team when they are anointed by prognosticators to be the last team standing.

In 2015, it was the Nationals. Upon hearing they were the runaway favorites to win the World Series, Bryce Harper infamously asked “Where’s my ring?” He truly believed his team’s success would be a slam-dunk. But last year was anything but a celebration for them as their epitaph named them as one of MLB’s most disappointing teams.

It is so much better being the underdog. It removes the pressure and gives you something to prove. It offers each team a Cloak of Invisibility – which seemed to work really well for Harry Potter.

I’d rather root for a bunch of athletes who play with chips on their shoulders and who show real passion on the field after a particular play – than guys who have a sense of entitlement. How many times did we witness Tigers yawning on the field or appearing to go through the motions the past couple of years? Will we see more players grinding out each play or at-bat this year?

It’s a good thing that this bullseye has been removed from the Tigers’ collective back. They’re wearing the Cloak of Camouflage this year and hopefully, the other teams won’t see them attempting to sneak to the front of the line – until it’s too late.

ONE TOPIC – TWO TAKES

By:  Kurt Snyder & Holly Horning

Spring training is so close now you can taste it. First pitchers and catchers and then a full- on schedule of way too many baseball games that don’t count.

As we count down, it’s time to start talking about the topics that will draw the most attention all spring long. Our writers will pick 4 each in this week’s One Topic –Two Takes.

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What are the 4 most interesting things you’ll be watching in spring training?

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KURT

I like the idea of spring training, the idea that it’s about to begin. But I have never been that enamored with following the games. It’s just too difficult to evaluate individual performance because the variables and objectives are so different from the regular season.

Spring training means April is near. My concentration is squarely on the guys who are not locks for the Opening Day roster beginning with:

RONDON

How polarizing can one player be? The man has been on a seemingly endless roller coaster ride and everyone is kind of waiting for it to run right off the tracks.

I have wished and hoped that Bruce would see himself as a difference maker, because he has that ability. It will be intriguing to watch and to see his level of commitment. He may view it as make or break time, but putting too much pressure on himself won’t be the way to go.

MACHADO

Dixon knows he can play and it must be infuriating for him wondering how close he is to being one of the future cornerstones somewhere in the infield. Is it a matter of when? Is it a matter of where?

His continued development and maturity will earn my attention.

GREENE

I felt bad for Shane last season. The way he began the season was astonishing really. It appeared like we had really fleeced the Yankees.

He deserves a nice boring spring without a care in the world. He’s got great stuff and has shown he can pitch. Looking forward to watching a very relaxed and effective Shane Greene heading into the regular season.

FULMER

I have never seen this guy pitch anywhere but YouTube, but nonetheless I am really excited. What is incredible is the pure volume and level of pitching talent that has emerged from the Mets minor league system.

That lineage makes Fulmer maybe the most fascinating player to watch this spring.

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HOLLY

As it turns out, I will be headed to Lakeland next month to take in some games, badger Omar Vizquel for an autographed baseball for my father-in-law (his favorite player) and look for intrigue. Maybe it’s because I’ve lived in Washington too long, but I find the stories-behind-the stories more interesting to follow.

Who will get regular playing time in the outfield and who will end up in the bullpen are stories that will develop in earnest during the actual season, not in spring training. In the meantime, I want to see more about the team’s preparation, mindset and sense of urgency before they head north, which include:

BASERUNNING

Last year, the Tigers were 2nd in most offensive categories and last in baserunning which was part of the reason they ranked 10th in scoring those runs. Just think how many of those 24 games they lost by 1-run (average 4/month or 1/week) could have been won if they were better on the basepaths.

This has been a huge issue for 3 years now and only getting worse so I expect Gibby to be out there with nothing less than a whip.

GIBBY

Speaking of which……. I want to see how large and in-charge he is while coaching baserunning and stealing. Will he be full of energy and demonstrative on the field? How will the players react to working with him? And how involved will he be in the dugout during the spring training games?

All of this may give us a hint of his future in baseball – and not just in front of the TV monitor.

VMART

If anyone is going to come back with something to prove this year, it’s Victor. He is one of those guys who will achieve beyond the restrictions of bad knees. I’m looking forward to seeing him punish opposing pitchers and having more time to re-focus on leading this team.

I just hope he balances his passion with common sense and caution.

MACHADO

Make no mistake, Scott Boras will take Iggy to free agency if the Tigers don’t trade him at the end of 2017 in order to get maximum value. The Tigers need to rebuild their stripped farm system and Iggy could bring a treasure trove of well-ranked prospects but Dixon Machado’s development will be the key.

It will be interesting to see how much playing time Machado gets – and when he finally gets sent down to AAA. Because as much as we’d like to see him play, his advancement depends upon regular time…….in Toledo.