TWICE AS NICE

February 28, 2019March 1, 2019 / totallytigersblog / 15 Comments

By: Holly Horning & Kurt Snyder

This season, we have experienced a very uncommon occurrence. The Hot Stove League has overlapped with Spring Training. Some of the biggest news has taken place while the teams play games in Florida and Arizona.

Even the Tigers, on a much smaller scale, have experienced some surprises with the free agent market.

As always, Holly and Kurt have not shared their responses to the topic below in the interests of offering a wide range of perspective. Let’s see what they have cooking this week.

This week, Jose Iglesias signed a minor league contract with the Cincinnati Reds. What does this say about all the parties involved?

HOLLY

When you have a player as talented with a glove as Iggy, and can’t be traded over a 2-year period nor land a position with another MLB team, it really points to outside factors overshadowing his physical talent.

There were clues along the way – the dugout fight with James McCann, the references to Ian Kinsler really taking him in hand as his athletic life coach and the recent anonymous quote from Tiger personnel about Iggy’s “strong” personality which is usually code for “difficult.” And last year, he was “excused” from TigerFest due to “family-related issues” but was photographed that same day partying with Miguel Cabrera (who also had the “family” excuse) at a Miami nightclub.

Add to that the firing of his agent, Scott Boras, in order to hire singer Marc Anthony to represent him both on the field and in the recording studio – moves deemed rather unusual and risky.

Absolved now in this mess is Al Avila who received much criticism for not being able to trade Jose. As we’ve seen, even in free agency with no trade penalties attached, Iggy was unable to land a spot despite several teams in desperate need of a SS. There weren’t even any rumors that teams were considering him.

Given all this information, it now appears to be a wise move by the Tigers to let him go. Iggy was making over $6.2 mill last year and would have been awarded an increase for 2019. Despite a defensive ranking in 2018 that placed him fourth in MLB, he is competing for a bench spot, not the SS position, on the Reds and will earn $2.5 mill only if he makes the team.

KURT

The Tigers wasted no time snatching up Jordy Mercer as a free agent. It was as if teams were standing in line hoping to get a shot at him. But the Tigers won the Mercer sweepstakes and paid him handsomely – like $10M handsome!

Meanwhile, Jose Iglesias had hit the market, and knowing what I know now, I wonder if things would have changed if the Tigers were a little more patient before grabbing another shortstop. Would they have considered re-signing Iggy for the right price?

Who anticipated that a team like Cincinnati would sign him to a minor league deal in the interests of adding depth? They already have a shortstop and were not shopping for a starter. It’s just crazy how the Tigers, who were in need of a shortstop to replace a pretty darn good one, could have re-signed Iggy for next to nothing.

I’m not the guy who can speak objectively on this subject, because I believe Iggy was one of best defensive shortstops to ever wear the D in Detroit. So, it’s a little unnerving to know that he could have been back here at a much more financially-friendly price. He was the best to wear the 1 since Sweet Lou.

Totally Tigers loves your comments! But please remember that responses are only published if they address today’s topic, are respectful and do not exceed the maximum 3-4 sentence response length. All rules are at: https://totallytigers.wordpress.com/commentsrules/.

PLAYERS, PAYROLLS, PROFITS AND POCKETS

February 27, 2019February 27, 2019 / totallytigersblog / 11 Comments

By: Holly Horning

Increasingly, players are voicing their displeasure over yet another off-season where the signing of free agents has been less than robust. Granted, some of these players have ulterior motives.

Justin Verlander, for one, who becomes a free agent after this year and wants another long-term contract. And now JD Martinez who was probably hoping that he could exercise the first of several opt-outs so he can pursue an even more lucrative contract after 2019.

But as we’ve explained in recent blogs, history, analytics and MBA-filled Front Offices are giving owners plenty of proof that these contracts rarely work out and are bad investments.

And there’s nothing wrong with that.

However, the players do have a leg to stand on in their argument about owners being cheapskates and using their teams as their own personal piggy banks. And it has only a small relationship to their case about the stone cold free agent market.

They point to the obligations owners have to field winning teams and to be caregivers of their organizations. And many of them feel that their employers have placed profits firmly ahead of fielding competitive teams.

Over one-third of MLB teams are claiming to be “rebuilding.” Or if you listen to JD Martinez, that figure is more like 80%. But then again, his agent is Scott Boras.

Claiming this status is an excuse for not being competitive (and not taking the blame) and also to support the shedding of payroll while also ignoring the free agent market.

The added bonus, as I wrote here recently, is that rebuilding teams reap extra income from MLB’s revenue sharing program as well as a second source of income from MLB directly. All for simply being bad.

Add to that the advantages that come from premium draft picks and you can see why some so readily embrace the bad.

But the money baseball organizations receive comes with conditions. And that is the sticking point with the players and their association. And it’s resulted in ongoing investigations into 4 teams – Miami, Oakland, Pittsburg and Tampa Bay.

MLB requires that teams who receive extra income must invest it in their organizations in an attempt to field more competitive teams. That revenue doesn’t necessarily have to go into roster payroll but it must be linked to a strategy or new resource that will strengthen the team.

And what these players and union officials are seeing is a flood of additional income for owners and no real evidence that this money is being put back into the organization. They are claiming that owners are lining their pockets instead.

As little as 3 years ago, there were 6 teams spending over $200 million on their rosters. And another one at over $300 million.

Today? Just two. And one of them just barely.

There are more MLB teams under the team average payroll than above it. And 12 of those teams have 25-man payrolls under $100 million. A couple of them so very low that their entire team payroll is less than what the Tigers are paying Miguel Cabrera and Jordan Zimmermann for this year alone.

And the sports economists will tell us all that there is a direct correlation between losing and payrolls that dip under $60 million. At this level, no team has ever won a title of any kind in baseball. To the players, this is evidence that some owners aren’t interested at all in fielding a competitive team.

Payroll is being slashed across the board and it appears that teams are trying to discover just how “low you can go.” The Tampa Bay Rays are the winner so far with a $39 million payroll for their 25-man roster. And they are also one of the teams being investigated.

So it really should not be a surprise that teams have learned how to beat the system. How to make their investment in the organization pay off for them big time. Cutting payroll drastically, not signing expensive free agents, tanking in order to get top draft picks, a bigger piece of the revenue-sharing pie and a special bonus from MLB.

It may be good to be the king, but it is even better to be an MLB owner.

Even better because owners got an additional source of revenue to add to their coffers this year. MLB sold some technology and reaped billions of dollars for it. Billions that were split 30 ways with each owner receiving at least $50 million in extra revenue. And the players’ union is saying that none of these owners have used any of that money to improve their teams. It went into lining pockets instead.

Players are becoming increasingly vocal about the problems in the game. Even their agents are sounding off. And if baseball doesn’t address what is being perceived as a decline in the quality of the game, the game will suffer as a whole.

Let’s just hope these issues are resolved before the current CBA expires in December 2021.

P.T. BARNUM WAS RIGHT

February 25, 2019February 25, 2019 / totallytigersblog / 14 Comments

By: Holly Horning

Enough already. I am sooo tired hearing about how unbelievable it is that Bryce Harper doesn’t have a new whopper of a contract. All because the free agent system is “broken” and that owners are “colluding.”

Nonsense.

First of all, the Washington Nationals offered him $300 million for 10 years last year which would have made him MLB’s most expensive player. He turned it down. In fact, the Nats owner indicated that Harper and his agent hadn’t stayed in touch with the team since that offer. A familiar tale considering that this same agent, with his client, Max Scherzer, did the same thing to the Tigers back in 2014.

So who then is to blame?

Scott Boras, that’s who.

Boras always does what he does best. Branding and marketing his clients like no other agent. And as a branding expert, I do admire his ability to perform this task exceptionally well. It doesn’t mean I have to like the guy though.

The fact that Harper doesn’t yet have a contract he likes places the blame squarely on him and his agent. Not on MLB or ownership. It’s simply that public perception has been molded by Boras to favor his client and to deflect from Harper’s true value.

Harper signed with Boras over 10 years ago when he was in high school and playing at levels never seen before in someone his age. He was a phenomenon and being compared to the greats of the game. Even then, Boras was marketing him extensively to both MLB and the media in general.

And 5 years ago, Scott started ratcheting up the hype with the first of several extensive spreads in Sports Illustrated. Articles that conveyed the extraordinary drive of his client and also one that pounded home how Harper would break all salary records with a “well-deserved” contract topping $400 million when the time came.

The table was already being set. Expectation levels were being etched into stone that would lead up to the assumption that Harper would naturally fetch MLB’s highest price as a player.

The fans’ – and media’s – beliefs were being manipulated. When you state something long enough – and often enough – many start to believe that it is true.

And in those past 5 years, something happened. Harper turned out to be a merely good, occasionally better, player. Not a great one.

Also a time in which he was voted by his fellow MLB brethren the dubious distinction of being the most disliked player in the game.

Combine that with the knowledge that he has no leadership skills in the clubhouse. He himself has said he’s not a leader. And last year, in the Nationals’ dysfunctional clubhouse, players called him out for not helping lead the team.

Simply put, beyond his bat, the man offers no real added value. Something to consider when you’re talking about baseball’s biggest contract. When you spend that kind of money, you want to get your money’s worth.

The marketing hype flew fast and furious for years with few people willing to say the emperor has no new clothes.

The truth is that in 7 years of playing professional baseball, Harper has had 1 exceptional year. Just one.

He’s also had another really solid year. But 5 of those 7 years had him hitting well below .300. And only 1 year in which he drove in exactly 100 RBIs. And with talented, not struggling, teams which gave him distinct advantages in the lineup.

Last year, he hit .249 with an OPS under .900. MLB was abuzz with his struggles and poor performance.

Based upon his stats, no one can say he is a regular and consistent performer at the top levels of baseball. And that’s what earns you the big bucks. Or at least it should.

Yet, he wants to be paid as if he is the top player in MLB.

Add to this, Bryce’s horrible fielding stats. He’s been ranked at the bottom of NL’s right fielders. In all of MLB, he sits at the bottom with Nick Castellanos. Last year, his skills with the glove cost the team 26 runs. His WAR was a mere 1.3 which is considered below-average.

Are these the stats that make you want to sign this player to baseball’s most expensive contract?

Harper ranked 75th in WAR at the end of the 2018 season. And he’s not even considered to be one of the top 10 players on any analyst’s list.

Yet the PR machine churns away with allegations of stupidity, greed and collusion by owners because they see what Boras is trying to hide with his media manipulations and infamous encyclopedia-thick notebooks used to persuade owners. And yes, he only deals with owners, not GMs. You can imagine the reasons why.

Dave Dombrowski certainly wouldn’t have signed Prince Fielder if he had been the point man. Dan Duquette, GM of the Orioles, would not have taken on the disaster of a contract to Chris Davis several years ago. Those signings were made by Scott Boras skipping the middle men and appealing directly to both teams’ owners.

The same agent with so many high-profile expensive clients who have yet to earn the reputation of actually being instrumental in helping deliver a title for their new teams.

Yet given all these reasons for not signing Bryce to baseball’s most expensive contract, it may, sadly, still happen. Boras will do what he does best and convince one owner to make an emotional, not fact-based, decision.

And it only takes one owner, desperate for a championship, to make it happen.

OPEN MIKE!

February 23, 2019 / totallytigersblog / 3 Comments

It’s the last Sunday of the month folks, which means it’s your day! This is the day for you to be heard. Today is the one day during the month (normally) where you get the opportunity to comment on the Tiger topic of your choosing.

This is the one day of the week where we open up the comment parameters for you, so you can really get those juices flowing. Comments on THIS DAY ONLY can be expanded to a maximum of 8 sentences. So, pick a topic and let us hear from you. What’s on your minds?

Totally Tigers loves your comments! But please remember that responses are only published if they address today’s topic, are respectful and do not exceed the maximum response length. All rules are at: https://totallytigers.wordpress.com/commentsrules/.

THE SATURDAY SURVEY

February 22, 2019 / totallytigersblog / 12 Comments

The Saturday Survey offers another way for readers to weigh in on a relevant topic. So here is another poll to gauge the pulse of our baseball-lovin’ peeps.

As always, we welcome your comments, so please vote and then submit your reasons ( 4 sentences max!) for how you voted in the usual comment box. Don’t forget to come back later and view the results!

COLLUSION, CONFUSION AND CONTRACTS

February 21, 2019February 21, 2019 / totallytigersblog / 12 Comments

By: Holly Horning

He is a bulldog on the mound – and with the media.

Justin Verlander is not afraid to pitch to the best hitters in baseball and he’s certainly not afraid to pitch his opinions to the media.

First, it was about the flaky Cy Young voters and his firm stance against PED users. Then, players who commit domestic abuse. All of which I firmly stand behind him.

But JV lost me last week with his comments about the current free agency situation. He said it was “broken” and that teams were using the “rebuild” excuse to avoid having to sign players.

I’ll admit that he may have a point about too many teams claiming rebuilding status.

But he also said that rebuilding teams should instead sign big stars to those long-term expensive contracts because that would jump-start the rebuild.

And that’s why he’s a ballplayer instead of pouring over spreadsheets and running numbers through computer software.

If a team is within a year or two of contending, then JV’s opinion may make some sense. But if your team, like the Tigers, cannot even give you a timeline about their departure from the cellar, then it is much more likely that this kind of move will further set the team back. Putting all your eggs in one player basket, so to speak, will prevent you from signing other players who you need in order to win. A big expensive free agent significantly decreases your flexibility and makes it harder to fill your remaining needs.

Just ask Tiger fans. Ask them how much better the Tigers would be if they didn’t have more than half their annual payroll allotted to just two players – Miggy and Zimmermann.

And then there is the misplaced assumption that all owners place a priority on winning over making money.

It would be one thing if Verlander could point to declining stats of players’ salaries, but they are, in fact, still increasing on a yearly basis. Once again, MLB players will be making more on average for 2019.

And even though his comments were made before Manny Machado signed with the Padres, the Washington Nationals made a 10 year/ $300 million offer to Bryce Harper months ago which would have made him the richest man in baseball. But Harper wanted more.

Based upon that, it’s impossible to say that teams aren’t making the offers. They are but the players aren’t accepting what turns out to be some of MLB’s most expensive offers.

Baseball players have come to expect it. They’ve come to expect ever-increasing salaries and contracts. They expect a continuing acceleration of big salaries because it’s been that way in the past. They don’t consider that market corrections are always a factor in every industry. Corrections that are based upon history and the ever-changing market demand.

Simply, there is no collusion as some have said. Teams are simply getting smarter about running their organizations. And they now have a longer track record on which to help them determine what to do.

JV may be right about the number of teams saying they are “rebuilding.” I’ve written here extensively about how poor-performing teams actually make more money than those in contention due to revenue-sharing and supplemental income supplied by MLB.

But that is it. His other arguments simply don’t hold water.

So why are teams reluctant for the second year in a row to dive in on free agents? There are a number of additional reasons….

1. FINANCIAL REWARDS FOR BEING BAD

https://totallytigers.wordpress.com/2019/01/07/contracts-and-contending/

2. LUXURY TAX PENALTIES

The fines for going over $206 million in payroll becomes significant beyond two years. And once you have a player who is making at least 25% of the team’s payroll, inflexibility with your payroll and players you need to sign become a much more difficult task.

3. PED HISTORY

At one point in the not-too-distant-past, more players in their 30’s were using PEDs and MLB and owners were looking the other way because of their enhanced productivity and the increasing attendance as a result. But tougher rules and monitoring have increased and PED use is down. The days of players enhanced performance as they got older are looong gone and reality has returned to show us that physical decline starts at age 30. The vast majority of free agents are 30 and older.

4. ANALYTICS

Hi-tech tools are now allowing Front Offices, managers and coaches to see what they were unable to see just two years ago. Video can now dissect and analyze every frame of a pitcher’s delivery and pressure plates allow them to understand what their hitters are or aren’t doing. These tools are allowing teams to maximize the current talent they have and get more out of their players as a result.

5. THE NEW FRONT OFFICES

The days when former players burrowed into Front Offices and used their experience, relationships and gut instincts to help assemble a roster are now extinct. They have been replaced by geeks with MBA degrees in finance, technology and sports economics. Relationships no longer really matter and these finance wizards have removed the emotional quotient out of signing players which often resulted in bad deals being offered. Stats and progression charts are the only things that count and they are driving the signings and highlighting the bad deals that need to be avoided. Ask any Front Office analyst and s/he will be able to tell you exactly how many extra wins a free agent will likely contribute.

6. FREE AGENT HISTORY SIGNING

How many long-term expensive free agent signings do you remember that turned out well? On the other hand, how many turned out badly? More than enough to now have a solid long-term history track record that universally tells teams that these are almost always a bad idea. History is a great teacher.

7. THE SCOTT BORAS EFFECT

Let’s not forget that Scott Boras is the originator of waiting until the last minute to have his players sign big deals. A formula of persistence, playing teams off against each other and waiting until spring training or longer to feed a GM’s desperation has always gotten him the biggest deals. Other agents are merely copying his strategy. Let’s not forget that most of these higher-profile players have received offers. They are simply holding out for more money.

So when Justin Verlander blames the corporate side of baseball for what is happening, he’s painting ball players as the victims. In reality, they are the perpetrators.

But then again, JV is a free agent after 2019 when he will be 37 and looking for what may be his last baseball contract. Add to that the fact that his fellow pitching teammates Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton have yet to find new homes.

Is this more of an issue of JV trying to right the ship in time for next winter when he hopes to land another multi-year, expensive contract? When he does an interview explaining how he will be able to pitch until he’s 45 years old?

You bet it is.

STRANGE BEDFELLOWS

February 19, 2019 / totallytigersblog / 13 Comments

By: Holly Horning

Ah, it is February and naturally, all thoughts turn to………

Paris.

Did you really think I was going to say spring training?

No, it is Paris. Seriously.

For the better part of the last 2 weeks, that’s where I’ve been. And I’ve only come back because my husband and 4 members of the French Gendarmerie managed to pry me off a pillar at Charles de Gaulle Airport and frog march me to the airplane. But that is another story…..

So now you’re probably thinking what Paris has to do with baseball.

Plenty because, you see, you can take the girl away from baseball but you can’t take the baseball out of the girl.

Flying to and from Paris takes anywhere from 7-8 hours which means you have lots of time in your seat to fill. Movies are often the best way and I squealed with delight when I perused the list of recent releases on my seat’s movie screen.

And it was a no-brainer.

The Catcher Was a Spy.

A story about Moe Berg, a professional MLB catcher who, as it turns out, also spied for the United States against Germany during World War II.

A fascinating tale about a complex man. An enigma. A guy who never quite fit into any group he joined. Highly secretive. A man no one really knew well – not even his own siblings. A man perfectly suited, as those in the intelligence community profession would say, for being a successful spy.

His life was full of contradictions. Raised as Jewish but grew up in communities purposely selected by his parents to expose him to other cultural and religious groups. A man who loved and played baseball but also earned two Ivy League degrees and was considered to be an academic as well as a lawyer.

A man who spoke 7 languages fluently with no trace of a foreign accent, a prolific reader and possessing the ingenuity of showing US intelligence what he could do for them.

He was a favorite on a popular radio show much like Jeopardy! and was credited by Commissioner Landis as doing more to raise the profile of baseball than the Commissioner himself.

He was also known as “the smartest man in baseball.”

Berg graduated Magna Cum Laude from Princeton with a major in languages. He also played baseball for the Tigers (ironically, the Princeton Tigers) and went on professionally to play for 4 MLB teams as well as coach. In his early years, he played for the Toledo Mud Hens.

The scouting term “good field, no hit” originated with him. While Moe improved as a hitter, he was known for an exceptional arm and even greater baseball instincts. He could tell when someone was going to run on him. (Moe turned into a catcher later in his career.) An instinct that would serve him well as a spy.

And during his time as a shortstop, he and his 2B partner, also an Ivy League graduate, spoke Latin to each other discussing the opposition and strategy – knowing that the competition would not understand anything they were saying.

But he loved academia as much as he did baseball. He spent his off-seasons in Paris studying at the Sorbonne and the weeks leading up to spring training traveling through Europe.

He even had the audacity to tell his team (White Sox) that he would be taking off the first 2 months of the season so he could finish his term at Columbia Law School where he earned a degree. His manager, however, benched him upon his return for quite a while as punishment. Once graduated, he spent his off-seasons working for a Wall Street firm.

And it was baseball that introduced him to his interest in intelligence work. He participated in an MLB-sponsored trip to Japan in part due to his fluency in Japanese. And in meetings with Japanese professors, discussed the potential of Japan and the US going to war against each other. It was on this trip that he secretly filmed Tokyo sites that would prove helpful to US Intelligence.

A Princeton classmate introduced him to Jimmy Doolittle, aviation pioneer and war hero, who was also charged with investigating the early years of countries exploring the combination of rockets and nuclear potential. Doolittle hired Berg to become a member of the OSS, the precursor to the CIA.

Moe’s first job was to evaluate which resistance groups to the Nazis deserved the attention and support of the US. From there, he was charged with interviewing physicists and trying to convince them to leave Europe and come to America. But his biggest job was to investigate Germany’s scientist, Werner Heisenberg, who was rumored to be working on a bomb that would change the course of history.

And Berg’s deadly accurate throwing arm would come in handy as his assignment included assassination if his investigation and gut instincts told him that Heisenberg was close.

So what happened?

Well, there are no spoilers here. You will just have to watch the movie – or read the book. (There is also a documentary on Berg coming out later this year.)

But as for Moe, he continued to help the US post-WWII – this time addressing the Soviets nuclear capability. And posthumously, he was awarded the Medal of Freedom.

Yet, on his deathbed, his last words were “How did the Mets do today?”

Who knew that baseball and Paris were such natural fits for each other?

QUESTION OF THE WEEK

February 16, 2019 / totallytigersblog / 10 Comments

It’s time again to hear from our readers! Today is the day to let us know what you’re thinking on a selected topic.

Sunday is now the one day of the week where we open up the comment parameters for you, so you can get those juices flowing.

Comments on THIS DAY ONLY can be expanded to a maximum of 8 sentences.

We can’t wait to get your thoughts on the following topic.

If you had to choose between offense, defense, starting pitching and relief pitching, what area will be most improved this season? Explain why.

THE SATURDAY SURVEY

February 15, 2019February 22, 2019 / totallytigersblog / 12 Comments

The Saturday Survey offers another way for readers to weigh in on a relevant topic. So here is another poll to gauge the pulse of our baseball-lovin’ peeps.

As always, we welcome your comments, so please vote and then submit your reasons ( 4 sentences max!) for how you voted in the usual comment box. Don’t forget to come back later and view the results!

Let’s just make sure there is a even distribution of answers going from most positive to most negative, in-between and other. Generally, 5 choices is a great formula so no one gets left out.

Consider your position on the following and then respond to the survey:

OPEN MIKE!

February 14, 2019February 15, 2019 / totallytigersblog / 17 Comments

Congratulations! In recognition of the holiday weekend, you have been granted an extra Open Mike opportunity this month. Today, you get an early opportunity to comment on the Tiger topic of your choosing.

Today, we open up the comment parameters for you, so you can really get those juices flowing. Comments on THIS DAY ONLY can be expanded to a maximum of 8 sentences. So, pick a topic and let us hear from you. What’s on your minds?

Totally Tigers

Unique Analysis–Timely Topics–Better Baseball

Month: February 2019

TWICE AS NICE

PLAYERS, PAYROLLS, PROFITS AND POCKETS

P.T. BARNUM WAS RIGHT

OPEN MIKE!

THE SATURDAY SURVEY

COLLUSION, CONFUSION AND CONTRACTS

STRANGE BEDFELLOWS

QUESTION OF THE WEEK

THE SATURDAY SURVEY

OPEN MIKE!

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