THE DRUMBEATS ARE GETTING LOUDER

/ totallytigersblog
by Holly Horning

It started well before Ken Rosenthal’s damning piece in The Athletic, entitled “Tigers’ Mess of a Season is the Consequence of Multiple Failings by the Organization.” 

Officially, the drumbeats started to be widely heard on June 4th, one day after the Tigers lost in horrific style to the Yankees.  A 13-0 drubbing that saw 3 position players being forced to pitch. 

Al Avila going on Bally Sports during the next game to do damage control.  I noticed right away that the Tigers had entered crisis mode.  And I wondered who told him he had to go on tv to do his version of the “All is well!” line that Kevin Bacon utters in the ending of Animal House. 

Certainly Al didn’t decide on his own.  He was told by either VP Communications, Ron Colangelo or maybe even Chris Ilitch himself.

It was that bad.

A couple days later, the Tigers had to endure the scrutiny of several analysts on Sirius XM MLB Radio.  They weren’t kind to either the Tigers’ rebuild or to Al Avila.  Their discussion centered around the questionable roster building moves.  Among the opinions expressed were:

  • Why was Eduardo Rodriquez offered so much money?
  • Signing Baez was a mistake given what stats and analysis are showing about future projections.
  • Don’t the Tigers know that if you have been one of MLB’s worst teams that you have to overpay in the beginning in order to get the players you need?  (Blogger’s note:  See Rodriguez, Ivan.)  They should have gone after Carlos Correa.
  • How could Detroit spend so much money and receive so little in return?
  • Avila was given such a significant budget to add players.  Did he feel compelled to have to spend it all?  It didn’t appear that he knew how to spend it wisely.

And then a number of other news organizations suddenly became courageous and started writing about what everyone else already knew.  (For the record, and if you are new to this site, Totally Tigers started questioning leadership and the rebuilding process quite a few years ago.)

So what is the common denominator among all these reports?

The consensus is that Al Avila is in over his head as a baseball GM.

But you knew that already.  Fans who don’t believe the hype or the PR writers masquerading as local Detroit sports journalists, saw this all within 2 years of Avila taking over as the Tigers’ GM.

Maybe if the writers – and Chris Ilitch – had listened to us all much earlier….. 

Fans know.  We are sufficiently detached from those who make the decisions and are too close to what is happening. We can see the forest for the trees.  We know when stuff smells to high heaven.

All of the critical reports we’ve seen recently are in agreement.  That Avila has consistently shown poor judgment in both trades and signings.

His free agent signings include: Jordan Zimmermann (even paid not to pitch in his final year), Mike Pelfrey (who ended up being paid $2 mill for each of the few wins he got) and a $77 mill contract for Eduardo Rodriguez despite having only 1 good year. 

And believing that Javy Baez could change the team and make the Tigers into contenders with his erratic performance history.  Let’s hope we’re wrong on this last example.

Now Avila has paid Jonathan Schoop $19 mill (in total through 2022) to hit .195 (through Monday).

His trades include Drew Smith for Mikie Mahtook and J.D. Martinez for 3 players no longer with the team.  Now, it’s keeping Jeimer Candelario and trading Isaac Paredes.

Let’s not forget that he also traded Mike Fiers for a song.

But the biggest blunder of all was the infamous Justin Verlander trade. On a par with the United States buying the island of Manhattan for just $24 of beads and trinkets.

JV, another player and $16 mill were sent to Houston.  In return, Detroit received Daz Cameron, Franklin Perez and Jake Rogers.  Perez was DFA’d, unclaimed and returned to Detroit where he has yet to throw a pitch in MLB.  This trade was rated the best trade (for Houston) by MLB Radio in the last decade.  Which means the Tigers made the worst trade in all of MLB in the past 10 years.

How did the Astros manage to keep a straight face through all of this?

And now?  It’s only Daz Cameron who’s left and sent back to AAA once again.  Meanwhile, JV won another Cy Young, pitched his third no-hitter and leads all of MLB in wins.  He also ranks near the top in ERA and appears to be the favorite for Comeback Player of the Year.

It was pointed out that Avila set the team back in rebuilding by not getting enough in return by dumping all these players.  That it has come back to bite the team and delay the rebuilding process. 

And it didn’t help that he didn’t move Michael Fulmer and Matthew Boyd when their values were high.  Boyd ended up being non-tendered and the Tigers got nothing in return.

Other reports I read several years ago quoted several GMs saying that Al’s trade requests for these two were “ridiculous” and “unrealistic.”

A number of reports revealed that even the international program the Tigers have is a bust.  Only 1 positive WAR player, Gregory Soto, has been produced since Avila took over.

Out of their current top 13 prospects, 8 of them are from the last 2 drafts.  Don’t expect to see them anytime soon to help with the rebuild.

Meanwhile, the positional holes continue to pile up rather than being solved.  Going into next year, there are serious concerns about who will take over catching, second base and third base.  Maybe the Tigers can trade for Isaac Paredes. Oh, wait….

The bottom line is that, under Avila, the Tigers have collapsed this year despite having top 5 draft picks in each of the past 4 years and spending $243 mill on free agents just this year.

They are going to have their 6th straight losing year and are currently on a pace to lose another 100 games.  They are performing at a “historically futile level” according to Ken Rosenthal and on a pace to score the fewest runs in their entire history dating back to 1901.

If this isn’t damning, I don’t know what is.

Rosenthal also points out that other teams are “more adept at identifying and developing above-average players” and “routinely come up with significant contributors for minimal acquisition costs.”  He goes on to write that winning teams “excel not only at evaluating players with other clubs, but also their own”  and that “the only reasonable conclusion to draw from the Tigers’ mess of a season is that they are failing on both fronts.”

Rosenthal goes on to reveal that a number of rival GMs anonymously told him that they don’t believe Avila is “creative and savvy enough to build a consistent winner.”

So many of us fans could have told him that back in early 2017. Almost 6 years ago.

The bottom line is that despite trying to imitate the tanking process that other teams like the Cubs and Astros used successfully, the Tigers are failing at it.  Tanking and getting top draft picks haven’t helped much.  And throwing money at the roster hasn’t either, esp. when you can’t correctly evaluate talent.

The Tigers are no closer to fielding a competitive team than they were 6-8 years ago.  And something has to be done now before players like Torkelson, Skubal, Greene and those 8 top prospects currently in the system are allowed to wither on the vine.

Now that so many are coming out publicly and challenging Avila’s competence, there is hope.  It can be ignored no longer.

#fireavila is trending on Twitter.  T-shirts with the same phrase are also selling well.

And that’s what we’ll address in Thursday’s blog.  Will Chris Ilitch simply look away and pretend that all is well after spending almost a quarter of a billion dollars on this putrid roster?

If changes are going to be made, what would next steps look like?

What are the options?

What could the Tigers’ future look like?

We’ll talk about all of that on Thursday so please save your comments about the future and potential changes for then. 

Today, let’s focus our comments on what is currently being said about the Tigers’ rebuild and Al Avila.

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56 thoughts on “THE DRUMBEATS ARE GETTING LOUDER”

  1. Another wasted season for us Tiger fans. But wasn’t AJ involved in the ERod and Baez trades? Shouldn’t he be partiality responsible for those too? I agree Avila is not a capable GM but where is he getting his most trusted advice?

    Liked by 1 person

    • Hi, Jimdme – For the record, Hinch was not part of the decision-making process for either Rodriguez or Baez. As for where Avila gets his advice, that’s an excellent question. Is he actually taking advice? That’s what we need to know, too. Thanks for keeping this conversation going! – Holly

      Liked by 2 people

        • Hi, Naldo – A meeting is one thing. Making a decision to bring Javy on board is another. It is expected that a manager will meet with any new free agent before he is signed. But Hinch wasn’t the one who decided he wanted Javy. In fact, Hinch had that infamous lunch with Correa.and the Tigers then made Correa an offer, which shows that A. J. wanted his former player. – Holly

          Liked by 3 people

          • Holly, input and decision making may be two different things, but input was most certainly there and if AJH didn’t want Baez, Baez would not be on the team right now. AJH shoulders some of the blame if blame is to be given.

            Liked by 3 people

            • Hi, Robert – We essentially agree but I believe that too many people are giving Hinch powers he simply doesn’t have. He is not equal to the GM, Front Office or owner. Influence doesn’t equal real decision-making power. From reports, it appears he wanted Correa. But I think it’s preemptive to blame him for Baez being on the roster. What if Baez was simply the fall-back candidate – not the #1 choice but better than the rest of the candidates out there? Something to consider….. – Holly

              Liked by 3 people

              • I agree with Holly, Hinch is obviously not running the organization and therefore doesn’t make the final decisions on trades and FA’s. Still, no one can deny that Hinch has had a positive impact on the culture and direction of this organization. It’s not realistic to expect Him to make up for all the errors made over the previous seven years under Avila in less than a season and a half.

                Liked by 1 person

            • I agree with you, Robert. Before this debacle of a season there was consensus that the organization and culture had been greatly impacted by Hinch. His boosters can’t have it both ways– crediting him with everything we like and tagging an Avila/Leyland villain with all the things that go wrong.

              Liked by 3 people

      • So the organization has a GM and a manager that don’t consult each other on big deals like these? The Tigers are never going to be a contender with this arrangement. AJ will probably be gone after this year.

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        • Hi, jimdme – Regarding big deals, it’s much more likely that it’s the GM and owner who are involved. It was reported that Ilitch set the price and offer to Correa. In the past, all big deals had to go through Mr. I. for final approval. – Holly

          Liked by 1 person

      • Look, I agree with all the Avila bashing 100%, but why is the coaching staff getting a pass? We have not one but two hitting coaches who have produced no hitters; We have a pitching coach who seems to specialize in Tommy John/sore arms;We have a 400 pound head trainer. The team is absolutely horrible on defense. The manager treats the batting order and position assignments like his own personal dartboard.

        Liked by 2 people

    • My guess would be Leyland. Thought it was very telling over the weekend when Hinch was asked if he was going to exercise his opt- out option and he wouldn’t answer the question, which essentially he did by not.

      Liked by 4 people

  2. Proof of Al’s incompetence is that statistically no one can be that unlucky in all their dealings. But then many of us thought his winter moves created a competitive team. Which shows how little we know.

    Liked by 6 people

    • Great point. Yes, I was one of those cheerleaders for the signings (though I argued strongly for Correa, being less concerned than some about saving Illitch some coin. I find it completely implausible that Hinch was not consulted about the acquisitions but Leyland was.

      Liked by 3 people

      • Hi, All – I will mention that to be consulted on a player is one thing. To actually take their advice and run with it is another, esp. when it involves a lengthy, expensive contract. The manager can offer an opinion but he’s not the final decision-maker. That role belongs to the GM and owner. There have been more than a couple articles written about how Al has ignored everyone’s advice and made his own decisions. The most infamous? Hanging onto Brad Ausmus back in 2015 when it was reported that the rest of the Front Office wanted him fired – Holly.

        Liked by 3 people

      • Baez may not have been the right choice as it turns out, but signing Correa to that monster contract the Tigers offered him would have been worse.

        Liked by 8 people

  3. This article is about the best one I have seen to date. It covers everything I have been worrying about this team for years now. This team is in the worst mess it has ever been in, and unlike 2003, there is no credible person in the front office to initiate a successful turnaround. Our current GM is just so woefully and obviously over his head that this club is just dead in the water, totally irelevent to the rest of the MLB that is passing them by, leaving them in the dust.

    Liked by 6 people

    • I agree. It was painful to read but was a thorough brief on why Al Avila must go. The incredibly soft print media environment in Detroit holds owners, administration and often coaches to a very low standard and roots gleefully for tanking.

      Liked by 4 people

  6. A good GM should be able to collapse the time needed to successfully complete a rebuild and, in addition, avoid most pitfalls along the way. It should have been obvious to everyone that almost everything Al Avila has done to date(with relatively few exceptions) has done exactly the opposite. It looks like another year is going to go down the drain, thanks to Al Avila.

    Liked by 5 people

  8. After reading this article I think I’m going to be sick. The Tigers continue to be a embarrassment to their fans, baseball, and sports in general. This once proud organization is now the perfect example of how not to do things.

    Liked by 4 people

  9. The entire organization should be embarrassed, and they are getting hammered by baseball analysts and announcers around MLB, even some of the local media are starting to speak up and honestly critique the situation.

    Liked by 5 people

  10. Been waiting for national pundits to sound off so loud that Illitch (and the fearful writers for the Detroit rags) won’t be able to ignore the call to arms.

    Liked by 3 people

    • As I recall, Illitch has withstood the crescendo of criticism over his lack of rebuilding downtown beyond the many parking lots he’s put up. CI is his own man and will do what he thinks is best no matter what any of us think.

      Liked by 4 people

  11. The Tiger’s will not be successful until they purge themselves of all of the ex-Pirates. These are the final holdovers to the “non-analytic”, “gut-feeling” by-gone era of management. AJ and some of the ex-Dodger management should remain in place but the rest cannot stay. Over evaluating your own talent, and not having a plan to develop what you have, leads us to where we are.

    Liked by 6 people

    • It is patently obvious that Al Avila along with his cronies did not have an effective plan, if they had one at all, to rebuild the Tigers into a contender. The “process”, as in “trust the process” was either extremely faulty, or was just empty PR. Whatever the case, it’s long past the time that Al and his ” old style” team were held accountable for their lack of results.

      Liked by 3 people

    • If you mean Avila, I am with you. But most of those “Pirates” are gone. AJ Hinch is managing the worst offensive team in baseball and has helped deliver a very unentertaining and unsuccessful team

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      • One thing has been obvious this year, the Tigers have been extremely boring to watch. It’s undoubtedly because their offense has been nothing short of a train wreck. Unfortunately for Hinch, the manager will take all the incoming flack for that whether he deserves all the credit for it or not.

        Liked by 2 people

  12. The real blame for the Tigers’ continuing downfall should not be aimed at Avilla, who really should be admired for attaining his position of GM, and keeping it so long. Who else could have been so financially successful when totally lacking the knowledge and talent needed to run a major league baseball team? The real culprit here is Chris Ilitch, who not only hired Avilla, but has kept him despite a completely inept performance.

    Liked by 5 people

  13. “drumbeats are getting louder” is a funny headline given AJ’s team using those trash cans to cheat. Maybe we need something like that around here.

    Liked by 2 people

  14. Great article, Holly! It is painful to read the truth coming from national pundits, which most of the local media do not want to address. Avila is a good man but needs to go. So too must Leyland and any residue from that era. I doubt Ilitch will act, however, unless fans just flat-out stop buying tickets, merch, etc. and essentially turn off their TVs and radios. It is time for the Avila saga to end.

    Liked by 4 people

  15. Hi, All – A quick reminder. I know everyone is anxious to discuss next steps for AJ and Avila as well as who may take over. Please save those comments for Thursday when we turn to that topic. Today, let’s just focus on what is currently going on. Thanks! – Holly

    Liked by 1 person

  16. I have been a defender of Avilla all of these years. Not because I think he is competent. Actually, I don’t think he is. He is a hanger-on GM. But the blame has always belonged on Chris Illitch.CI is the one giving the orders, and that is why AA still has a job and his contract extended indefinitely.

    Liked by 6 people

  18. Everyone has 20/20 hindsight on all Avila’s moves, yet nobody (fans or national “experts”) complained when the Tigers signed Rodriguez, Baez, Barnhart, Chafin, Meadows, etc. How can Hinch not get his share of the blame when so many guys are having the worst years of their careers – or Fetter when we have so many injuries to pitchers? Maybe we never saw Paredes’ potential because Hinch fell in love with Goodrum’s “versatility”?

    Liked by 4 people

    • I’m not convinced Paredes is a great loss. He’s currently hot but can get really cold. And his defense and base running aren’t stellar.

      Liked by 3 people

    • Pondo, you made my day with your comments. All the moves, at the time, made sense. It’s just that injuries have caused havoc and performance has been dismal. We had forever to play Paredes and his greatness is only a month long so far so who knows?

      Like

    • I was against the Avila promotion from day one, and started closely following, and keeping a list of, his moves when he made the horrible decision to sign Pelfrey. Last off-season was the 1st time I thought his moves had potential, as the players all had decent track records (who could guess they’d all collapse so spectacularly?). I still think the reason he allowed emotion to overrule logic and keep Ausmus on was because he was angry about the leak.

      Like

    • Pondo – Didn’t know those players so could not evaluate the signing and trades. So had to be happy at least something was done. Funny though that all of them are busts. What are the odds on that! Hinch may be over coaching players with all the pre-meetings and evaluation feedback. That works initially but then just becomes blah..

      Like

  19. “…the PR writers masquerading as local Detroit sports journalists, saw this all within 2 years of Avila taking over as the Tigers’ GM.” This is spot on, Holly. The propaganda fuels the belief. These alleged writers only pile on when the writing is on the wall.

    Liked by 4 people

  22. Al Avila should be barred from ever making another trade or signing a free agent in his lifetime, no trades, no free agent signings ever again. Enough is enough.

    Liked by 1 person

  23. Going by comments made to date by Chris Ilitch it’s evident that he’s sold on the overall direction Avila has taken the club pertaining to the behind-the-scenes stuff most fans don’t see or care much about. The analytics department for example along with better drafts. In the last year he’s gutted the minor league system, broomed alott of holdovers and brought in new people. Garko is only in his first year in charge of minor league player development.

    Like

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