ONE TOPIC – TWO TAKES

By:  Holly Horning & Kurt Snyder

The Ilitch family has owned the Tigers for almost 24 years. And for the first time in a long time, the Tigers have professed a desire to take a step back and get the franchise to a more manageable level financially while acquiring more young talent at the expense of some of their stars. This all brings about a very important question.

Holly and Kurt never share their answers to these topics before it’s time. And today is no different as we take a look at the Ilitch ownership and what this change in direction may mean for the franchise.

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Do you believe the Ilitch family plans to hold onto the Tigers after they make their changes? Why or why not?

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HOLLY

If you follow media that is not Detroit-based, you will get a very different take on what is going on with the Ilitch family. A number of journalists are already using the name “Chris” instead of “Mike.” I won’t go into details that revolve around the owner’s health, but what we do know is that Mr. I hasn’t been seen in months including missing those very important team photos for both his Tigers and Red Wings, recent big player signings and last week’s significant joint venture announcement with Pistons’ owner, Tom Gores.

Whether or not you believe the rumors that the rest of the family is not as enamored of the Tigers as the patriarch, there is one huge reason why the family will sell the team. The estate tax bill.

Simply put, the Ilitch family will have to pay out 40% of the team value ($450 million) unless Mike leaves the team to Marian. Which, of course, he can’t because she owns a casino and is getting ready to launch another one. We all understand the rules that forbid MLB owners from being connected to gambling and bequeathing the team to Chris will spur the 40% tax, which is the primary reason why teams change hands.

It’s really as simple as that.

(On a side note, Mike can leave the Red Wings to Marian without an estate penalty because there are no gambling rules attached to hockey and he cannot sell to the Fords because NFL rules prohibit ownership of a baseball team.)

Additionally, as supporting points, you can also add in the huge cost overruns at the new Red Wings arena and the time and energy this massive project is taking away from baseball as part of a bigger rationale for selling the team.

Tom Gores is another factor and he’s stated his interest in owning another sports team. Based in CA, raised in MI and owns a home in Birmingham, he now has a joint business venture with the Ilitch family.

His behind-the-scenes actions, of course, were never reported in the local papers, but he recently hired a sports attorney who specializes in buying/selling sports teams. And the guy he hired is best friends with Steve Greenberg (Hank’s son) who works for…. get ready for it….Mike Ilitch.

And if you think this is a coincidence, I have a bridge to sell you……..

The Ilitches couldn’t sell to a better person who now holds a combined interest in the success of downtown sports and as a natural by-product, the industries that are Ilitch-owned and feed off of their baseball, basketball and hockey. An incredibly smart business move and a win-win situation.

So really the only thing left to determine is why the team has to reduce payroll. Is it because the Ilitches were told by MLB (1 of 9 teams) to reduce payroll because their debt-to-equity ratio is reaching dangerous levels? Or are they preparing the books to help bolster their sale price? Afterall, since at least 2006, the team’s payroll has exceeded revenue every single year.

I think we’ll soon find out.

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KURT

Mike Ilitch has professed for so long how badly he has wanted to bring a World Series championship to Detroit, but that run is beginning to, well, run aground.

And the new direction announced by Al Avila to become younger and leaner is some real foreign territory for the franchise and for all of us. But we have watched the cracks form for a few years now.

We witnessed the departure of Dave Dombrowski, replaced internally by Al Avila. We stood puzzled by the retention of Brad Ausmus as manager, when it’s common place for a GM to put their own stamp on the team with a new skipper, especially when given the opportunity to hire a better one.

And bit by bit the cracks have widened, contributing to the Tigers’ decision to change course. Mike Ilitch has spent a lot of money, and considering there is no trophy to justify the spending, it’s time to stop the bleeding.

With Mr. I in poor health, Chris Ilitch is now making the appearances on behalf of the family, as recent as last week when the Pistons announced their intentions to move downtown and share Little Caesars Arena with the Wings.

Chris has been said to have much more interest in the operation and ownership of the Red Wings than the Tigers, which seems to be a huge red flag when you consider his father’s apparent decreasing role. Mr. I was the driving force behind every Tiger signing, every championship attempt. But it has reached the end.

I believe every move the Tigers make from here on out will be very calculated. Every move will be made in the interests of preparing the team for future sale.

Mike was all about a new ballpark in the infancy of his ownership, but never really moved on attempting to build a winner until 2004, the year after a historically bad year for the franchise. Then heavy spending seemed to be his strategy, which hasn’t been much of a strategy after all.

So, they will sell because it is time. They will sell because we need them to do it. We have reached the point where only new ownership can breathe new life into this team; ownership that doesn’t just blatantly throw money at a problem. Let the Ilitch family concentrate on what is clearly #1 now in their hearts; the Red Wings. That’s enough of a challenge as it is.

TOPIC FOR TUESDAY

It’s Tuesday folks, which means it’s your day! Today is the day for reader feedback.

Most weeks like today, there will be a topic on which to respond, while once a month for “Open Mike,” readers get the opportunity to comment on the Tiger topic of their choosing.

This is the one day of the week where we open up the comment parameters for you, so you can really get those juices flowing. Comments on THIS DAY ONLY can be expanded to a maximum of 8 sentences.

So let ‘er rip! Let’s get this party started! We can’t wait to get your feedback on the following topic.

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Are the Tigers really making the best decision to potentially start the rebuild this year instead of waiting one more year while the team is still viable?

THERE, I SAID IT – PART 5

By:  Holly Horning

Let’s continue the series of blogs based upon my observations and conclusions, so far, about the Tigers since 2006. This is about the long-standing direction of the team and why, despite the immense talent, they have been unsuccessful when everything was on the line. The premise for these points of discussion are all based upon Mr. I’s well-publicized desire and stated goal to win the World Series.

This series is meant to uncover, examine and discuss why their path never achieved the desired goals and why it’s been 32 years, second-longest in the AL Central, since the last one.

In the media, most portray the process of winning as simply getting the right players. But we know there are many more factors that play into creating a successful team – and franchise. And those factors are tangible and intangible. Just ask Theo Epstein, who has managed to break baseball’s two longest curses because of his vision and strategy.

The Tigers have poured more money into signing players than any other team, save for the Dodgers. Are there beliefs and corporate culture issues that have been holding them back? That’s a primary premise of these blogs.

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If you missed the first four installments, catch them here:

WORLD SERIES

https://totallytigers.wordpress.com/2016/11/03/there-i-said-it/

OWNERSHIP

https://totallytigers.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/there-i-said-it-2/

DAVE DOMBROWSKI

https://totallytigers.wordpress.com/2016/11/14/there-i-said-it-part-3/

AL AVILA

https://totallytigers.wordpress.com/2016/11/17/there-i-said-it-part-4/

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This is a series that is dependent upon you, the reader, to weigh in. My statements are only meant to be the starting point. These thoughts are meant to inspire analysis and carry us all through the month, season and coming years.

So let’s begin some great dialogues as they relate exclusively to issues surrounding former manager, Jim Leyland. Over the coming weeks, we’ll also address the Front Office, Brad Ausmus, coaching, the corporate culture and other topics.

Please pick one topic and start the conversation. Don’t forget to come back later and respond to others who have posted.

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JIM LEYLAND

1. In typical Tigers fashion, Leyland has reaped the loyalty rewards of always staying or returning to the team. He spent 18 years as a player and minor league manager for Detroit before returning for another 11 years – and now going on 12. He’s survived more than a handful of several owners, GMs and managers. Over 30 years – and continuing – with one team is highly unusual and not seen in modern day baseball. And that loyalty is part of the overall problem.

2. JL was a good solid choice for a manager back in 2006 as the nucleus of the team was in its infancy and needed guidance from someone experienced. Also good for a team that had started collecting high-priced star players who needed to have their egos managed effectively. But as the team evolved, their managerial requirements needed changing. Leyland should have been replaced in 2010 at the latest.

3. Track records are indicative of a person’s likely performance. Despite managing immense talent on the Pirates, Marlins and Tigers, Leyland’s managerial record is barely over .500 – standing at an unimpressive .506 . His records with the Pirates, Marlins and Rockies were all under .500 and he won only 1 WS in 22 years. He won multiple division titles with both the Pirates and the Tigers but couldn’t advance his teams much beyond that. A manager with so much talent on his roster should have done much better than what his record indicates and the GM should have seen that he was unlikely to be successful when it came to October baseball.

4. JL is a profound opponent of sabermetrics and analytics and so are many of his former coaches, who are still with the Tigers. Why would Al Avila introduce an analytics department and introductory software program when Leyland, a special assistant to him, and many of the coaches don’t buy into it? In many ways, the game has passed him by and there are no signs he’s updated his thoughts about what it takes to win today.

5. Despite Leyland having the title of “special assistant”, make no mistake – he is the power behind the throne. Mr. I begged him to return as manager in 2015. And it’s no coincidence that every single one of his friends/players/coaches dating back to the 60’s, 70’s and 80’s has been kept on the Tigers’ payroll or brought back after being fired elsewhere. He’s outlasted numerous top Front Office executives and despite a change of GMs, he has surprisingly stayed on when it’s routine to replace everyone. The Tigers will not be able to move forward successfully until they cut ties with their past.

QUESTIONS, COMMENTS, KUDOS & CONCERNS

By:  Kurt Snyder & Holly Horning

Saturday’s segment is a day to touch on as many issues as possible. Now that the Hot Stove League is heating up, there is plenty to contemplate about the home team and where they are headed.

Kurt and Holly don’t share and it’s only for the readers’ benefit. It almost always translates into a wide array of thoughts.

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KURT

COMMENT

After so much promise, Stephen Moya more than likely has more value as a trade piece than a consideration for the Tigers’ roster in 2017. Any deal involving someone like JD should also include Moya, who is still at least a year away and fading. He’s just another disappointing example of a thin farm system that has yielded very little position player talent.

QUESTION

How valuable is a power hitting threat off the bench when you consider the Tigers may indeed miss a .171 hitter in Jarrod Saltalamacchia? Talks of Alex Avila returning to the Tigers would constitute a downgrade both as a bat off the bench but also as a reliable backup catcher. It really tells you where the team may be headed when players the caliber of Avila are considered for a return to Detroit.

QUESTION

Taking everything under consideration, who could have envisioned Brad Ausmus managing the Tigers for 4 seasons in Detroit? It’s interesting how he is now more of an appropriate managerial choice in his 4th season, with lower expectations, than he ever was in the first 3. My level of frustration heading into December? High.

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HOLLY

QUESTION

There are only a handful of teams in the position to take on some of the Tigers’ mega-contracts, including Boston. But will Al Avila want to risk dealing with Dave Dombrowski, who is an expert at getting the best in trades? Will the two even want to discuss a trade given the messy departure and rumored bad feelings?

COMMENT

As the jousting between some of baseball’s top media and Kate Upton continues, an official poll was done to identify the top 25 Worst Sports Power Couples. And this is an award that Justin and Kate shouldn’t be happy winning as sports #1 “most insufferable” couple, beating out the likes of Tom Brady and Gisele Bunchen, Jay Cutler and Kristin Cavallari, Aaron Rodgers and Olivia Munn and the Beckhams. They were labeled as the “King and Queen of doing too much online…..constantly feeling cheated of their due, but also constantly in a position to tell others what their inherent right are.” Ouch.

COMMENT

It seems that the Cy Young Award brings out the worst in players (or their fiancés). After inventing a social media stunt – where his wife “accidentally” threw his no-hit jersey into the trash – Max Scherzer was at it again with a fully staged, unabashed theatrical celebration of his win for live TV complete with supporting cast and exploding bottles of champagne cascading all over a jumping, screaming Max. So much for winners graciously accepting their awards and paying respect to their competition as Scherzer selfishly rubbed it in to Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester. Tacky.

A ROAD MAP TO THE FUTURE

During this holiday weekend, let’s take another look at Holly’s post from earlier in the week. What categories might the team consider to determine the path they will follow in this most uncertain of futures?

Totally Tigers

By:  Holly Horning

These are insane times for us Tiger fans. Gone are the days when we heard the yearly proclamation that the team was  “all in.” Gone are the days when we knew a big name would be signed every year. Now we’ve all become Sherlock Holmes trying to figure out which direction the team is taking.

Are they contenders, tweakers or rebuilders? Are they a team that is tearing it all down or merely refining the way they play? Are they shedding some excess payroll or having a fire sale?

Who knows right now. We could be left hanging for another 5 weeks – maybe more before we know where the team is headed. Even then, don’t expect those who run the team to tell you their strategy. Some of it, they don’t want you to know. And the strategy and spin may well change over the coming…

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HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM TOTALLY TIGERS

This is a day where we all give thanks. And we here at Totally Tigers want to show ours to you, the readers. We wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for you. So we send out a big roar of approval to those who read us every day, to those who binge-read us, the solid core who comment regularly and to the many who silently lurk in the shadows. Even those who read us occasionally. We love you all.

We are thrilled that you get us and why we started this blog. We love that you’re looking for conversation starters and not spin. And the fact that we often don’t give answers – and that explanations are often presented. All in a civil, user-friendly environment that encourages the sharing of thoughts and ideas.

And as we go forward, expect some tweaks from Totally Tigers. We’ll be expanding, adding new formats and other new ideas to keep you informed, entertained and intellectually stimulated. And if you have ideas and/or topics you’d like to see, email us and let us know. We won’t publish your thoughts but we will give you credit when they appear.

Thank you from the bottom of our little blue and orange striped hearts for being our readers. And may the only turkey you see this coming holiday season be the one on your dining room table – and not in the form of a player trade.

OPEN MIKE!

It’s Tuesday folks, which means it’s your day! Tuesday is the day for reader feedback. And as promised, today is the one day during the month where you get the opportunity to comment on the Tiger topic of your choosing. It’s time once again for “Open Mike!”

As usual, this is the one day of the week where we open up the comment parameters for you, so you can really get those juices flowing. Comments on THIS DAY ONLY can be expanded to a maximum of 8 sentences. So let ‘er rip! Let’s get this party started! Pick a topic and let us hear from you. We know there’s a lot on your minds…

A ROAD MAP TO THE FUTURE

By:  Holly Horning

These are insane times for us Tiger fans. Gone are the days when we heard the yearly proclamation that the team was  “all in.” Gone are the days when we knew a big name would be signed every year. Now we’ve all become Sherlock Holmes trying to figure out which direction the team is taking.

Are they contenders, tweakers or rebuilders? Are they a team that is tearing it all down or merely refining the way they play? Are they shedding some excess payroll or having a fire sale?

Who knows right now. We could be left hanging for another 5 weeks – maybe more before we know where the team is headed. Even then, don’t expect those who run the team to tell you their strategy. Some of it, they don’t want you to know. And the strategy and spin may well change over the coming months depending upon how successful they are in trading some high-priced talent.

But eventually, the organization is going to start handing out clues. And like a GPS system, each clue will take us down the road a little further until we finally figure out where the organization is headed.

Right now, we’ve got no answers. We have no map. And we’ve ventured into unchartered territory. But we’ve got a series of questions that can function as a flow chart once the Tigers start to reveal their hand. Here are the issues to consider…..

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OWNERSHIP

Who exactly is in the ownership seat and making the decisions? Mike or Chris Ilitch?

Is the person in charge looking to retool or prepare for a sale?

FINANCIAL

Are the Tigers waiting on the new CBA agreement to either eliminate or raise the luxury tax ceiling?

Is this merely a payroll reduction to align the team with average mid-market figures?

– Or is this an attempt to finally push revenue to exceed payroll?

– Could this be an attempt to get the books in order for a possible sale?

Does Al Avila have an order from ownership to pare or has he been given a specific financial ceiling?

How much does the significant cost overrun of the new Red Wings arena impact how much money is available to the Tigers?

Are the soaring profits being made by the casinos part of a focused business expansion that would require selling the team in order to comply with baseball’s rules about gambling?

TRADES

Are the Tigers looking to avoid the mess that the Phillies experienced with ageing players tied to huge contracts?

Will management place trades as a priority over attendance?

How many players will actually be traded?

– Will the roster be merely tweaked or will more than a handful of players leave the team?

Which players will be traded?

– How important are these players to the team?

– Will they be the franchise faces, important cogs in the roster, secondary players or ones close to free agency?

Will the team be able to shed some of the contracts of players who didn’t perform well last year?

Will the Tigers start acquiring players with more speed and better defense?

PHILOSOPHY

Have the Tigers finally realized that their old formula for winning needs to be changed?

Is the ascension of a new GM responsible for a change in direction?

– Or is the changed due to a new ownership voice?

Are the additions of an analytics department, the Caesar software program and a players’ manual the catalysts for a change in direction?

How much influence does the Analytics Department now have about the best formula re winning?

Does the team finally have a sense of urgency about winning while they still have their franchise faces performing well and a young, controllable core of promising pitchers?

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Some of these questions may never be answered but some may reveal themselves within the next couple of weeks. And with each answer, we’ll get a better sense of where this team is headed – for 2017 and even beyond.

QUESTIONS, COMMENTS, KUDOS & CONCERNS

By:  Holly Horning & Kurt Snyder

Saturday’s segment is a day to touch on as many issues as possible. Now that the Hot Stove League is heating up, there is plenty to contemplate about the home team and where they are headed.

Holly and Kurt don’t share and it’s only for the readers’ benefit. It almost always translates into a wide array of thoughts.

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HOLLY

QUESTION

You’ve got BBWAA writers who say they won’t vote for a player because of his political beliefs, both writers from the same city who unbelievably left JV entirely off their ballots (coincidence?), a ballot being turned in before the season ends and votes being cast by polling random players instead of doing the research. Three out of 4 categories in this year’s seasonal awards have come under intense scrutiny and criticism and it’s only getting worse. How many more years will MLB and the BBWAA fail to address the serious issues surrounding voting, as well as the antiquated system developed over 100 years ago that is in need of serious updating?

CONCERN

At one point, the Tigers had 3 Cy Young Award winners on their roster at the same time and this year’s recognition was filled with Tiger winners past and present. One who was robbed of the award and lost out to a former Tiger and yet another ex-Tiger who now is only 1 of 6 in baseball history to win the prize in both leagues. There is something seriously wrong within this organization when you consider that the Tigers have been the only team in MLB loaded with all this talent and all the major individual awards: Cy Youngs, MVPs, batting champs and a Triple Crown winner and yet can’t even get close to winning a World Series.

COMMENT

Just because your anger is justified about a poor Cy Young Award result, doesn’t mean tweeting a tacky x-rated series of rants is right. Kate Upton put her fiancé, JV, in a difficult position with her comments – straining his friendship with Rick Porcello and undoubtedly angering at least 2 writers which won’t help his case in future voting years. At least JV was diplomatic and gracious as he tried to right the ship on the next day by tweeting his appreciation to everyone in MLB and the BBWAA.

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KURT

COMMENT

Despite all the outrage surrounding Justin Verlander’s second place finish in the AL Cy Young Award voting, familiar names and ex-Tigers did win the big prize. Max Scherzer won yet another Cy Young Award in the NL while Rick Porcello’s 22 wins bagged him the prize in the AL. If you didn’t know any better, you would have thought the Tigers would have surely won at least onechampionship having had all 3 of these pitchers on their roster at the same time; add in David Price and there is no question right? Wrong.

KUDOS

Speaking of individual awards, the future of Michael Fulmer is indeed bright as he took home the AL Rookie of the Year Award. Fulmer arrived with a boatload of potential in the Yoenis Cespedes trade and has paid huge dividends already. It would surprise no one after having watched him this season, if he someday adds his name to the list of Tigers Cy Young Award winners.

KUDOS

Mike Ilitch should be commended for bringing multiple championships to the Red Wings, having also dotted the landscape of downtown Detroit with a vast amount of successful developments along the way. And of course, he should be commended for his relentless pursuit of a championship for the Tigers; despite what looks like the end of the line for that pursuit. With his influence on the Tigers appearing to diminish, Mr. I is still considered to be near the top on the success meter, but hey, sometimes you just can’t have it all; and if you have read my series this past week, you can probably guess that I can still find some satisfaction in that.

THERE, I SAID IT – PART 4

By:  Holly Horning

Let’s continue the series of blogs based upon my observations and conclusions about the Tigers since 2006. This is about the long-standing direction of the team and why, despite the immense talent, they have been unsuccessful when everything was on the line. The premise for these points of discussion are all based upon Mr. I’s well-publicized desire and stated goal to win it all in October.

This series is meant to uncover, examine and discuss why their path never achieved the desired goals and why it’s been 32 years, second-longest in the AL Central, since the last one.

In the media, most portray the process of winning as simply getting the right players. But we know there are many more factors that play into creating a successful team – and franchise. And those factors are tangible and intangible. Just ask Theo Epstein, who has managed to break baseball’s two longest curses because of his vision and strategy.

The Tigers have poured more money into signing players than any other team, save for the Dodgers. Are there beliefs and corporate culture issues that have been holding them back? That’s a primary premise of these blogs.

If you missed the first three installments, catch them here:

WORLD SERIES

https://totallytigers.wordpress.com/2016/11/03/there-i-said-it/

OWNERSHIP

https://totallytigers.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/there-i-said-it-2/

DAVE DOMBROWSKI

https://totallytigers.wordpress.com/2016/11/14/there-i-said-it-part-3/

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This is a series that is dependent upon you, the reader, to weigh in. My statements are only meant to be the starting point. These thoughts are meant to inspire analysis and carry us all through the month, season and coming years.

So let’s begin some great dialogues as they relate exclusively to issues surrounding Al Avila, the current GM. Over the coming weeks, we’ll also address the Front Office, managing, coaching, the corporate culture and other topics.

Please pick one topic and start the conversation. Don’t forget to come back later and respond to others who have posted.

AL AVILA

1. Avila’s first year as GM was a mixed-bag of results. I don’t put an immense amount of weight on first-year results because it’s not yet indicative of a true track record. But what happens after a second year will be much more telling.

2. Al may have worked for Dave Dombrowski, but he’s no Dombrowski clone. In just his first year, he’s introduced an analytics department, developed a manual for standard performance, directed the introduction of a software program and filled the bullpen with more than ageing, retread/rehabbed arms. He is digging deeper into the organization for solutions to improving performance. But it’s going to take time.

3. It is the GM’s job to take any hits for the owner, especially when it comes to trades and signings that go south. There is plenty of evidence that Mike Ilitch had the deciding hand in the signings of Upton and Pelfrey. But Al’s reputation will be cemented after this year in the players he gets in return for reducing payroll by trading some high-profile veterans.

4. Almost every new GM hires their own Front Office, pulling assorted executives from outside the organization when they take over. If Avila wants to effect change, why is he keeping everyone? Why is there zero turnover? Why is he re-hiring people who worked for the organization years ago?

5. In the mantra to get “younger and leaner”, why does the GM’s actions not apply to the coaching staff as well? (Insert your own Lamont joke here.) I can understand the retention of Brad Ausmus given the revised direction of the team, but the Tigers have the oldest coaching staff by far of any organization. We’re talking 2 decades older on average. It just doesn’t make sense to introduce an analytics department if your manager is the only one who is going to embrace it and understands how to use it.