FIVE FOR FRIDAY

by Holly Horning

Over the past 2 weeks, there have been a number of national articles (and radio shows) published that evaluate the Tigers’ rebuild.  All critical, all pointing their fingers at GM Al Avila.  All of them covered here at Totally Tigers this week.

Every piece has indicated that the Tigers have barely started to fill the many holes in their roster.  That the free agents have all essentially been busts, rookies have been struggling and mid-tier players are under-performing.  Some of them indicated that next year’s roster will need even more work given that the level of talent seen this year is not viable enough to stay.

In summary, they believe the Tigers will be slipping backwards in their rebuild. More positional holes will be created next year in contrast to 2022.

So the question now to ask is which of these players will actually be part of the rebuild?  Which ones deserve to stay?  Which ones will become the nucleus of a competitive team?

And that is today’s topic.

Here are the ground rules:

  • Pick 5 players who have played in Detroit this year.  Those who are still prospects cannot be selected.
  • You can choose those who are on the IL.  Even those who simply got a cup of coffee in Comerica.

If you were the GM, which 5 would you keep as you rebuild the team?

  • And if you can’t find 5 players on the roster with the right level of skills and/or promise, that’s fine, too.  Just list the ones you’d keep.  If you can’t fill out 5 names, that will also say something, won’t it?

I’ll start things off.

I would definitely keep:

Riley Greene

Tarik Skubal

Spencer Torkelson

After that, I’m torn and I’m really grasping for straws as I try to fill out my selection.

If forced, I’d also select:

Beau Brieske

Alex Faedo

I hesitate on the last 2 simply because they are still clay waiting to be molded.  I have no idea what they’re going to look like with more experience.  But they are the best of the rest of the bunch.  And it makes me sad that I can’t easily pick 5.

I will also add that I avoided selecting relievers because they are so unpredictable and their efforts vary from year to year.  They are a very transient bunch.

I also avoided selecting players who have spent more time on the IL than playing.  I’m not going to risk picking players like Casey Mize, Matt Manning or Austin Meadows who may be spending more time on the IL more than on the roster.

Now it’s your turn.

(To facilitate everyone’s reading, please list each of your selections on 1 line each.  Extra points if you alphabetize your players so everyone can more easily see the patterns.)

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What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday?

  • A former Tiger will be managing in the Olympics. He’d also be a great manager in MLB.

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  • We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
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THE DRUMBEATS ARE GETTING LOUDER

PART TWO

by Holly Horning

Let’s continue the conversation we started on Tuesday about the multiple media reports that have been critical of the Tigers’ rebuild and their GM.  If you haven’t read the blog or are a glutton for punishment and want to review it again, here is the link:

https://totallytigers.wordpress.com/2022/06/27/the-drumbeats-are-getting-louder/

First of all, my apologies go out to those of you who needed a therapy session or some quality time with an emotional support animal after reading Tuesday’s blog.  For the record, I had to have a cocktail after writing it.

But you know what?  It’s actually a good thing that this is all coming out.

The elephant in the room is no longer being ignored.  People are no longer staying silent.  Much of the national media is now echoing what many of us have been saying for years.

That this rebuild has been horrible and that the GM is not capable of achieving any sense of measurable success or moving this team forward.

Once something like this gets out into the open, it’s hard to put the genie back in the bottle.

And there’s nothing like repeated media analyses that all come to the same conclusion in order to inspire change.

I seriously don’t see how things can possibly continue as they have been.  The spotlight is now shining brightly on the Tigers’ problems and the calls for action will only increase, not go away.

Ironically, since Tuesday’s blog, yet another national piece came out yesterday (in The Athletic) that is highly critical of the Tigers’ rebuild. It compared the Tigers’ process to that of the Giants.

To quickly summarize the journalist’s points, both teams started their rebuild in 2017.  The Tigers went the tanking route.  The Giants did not.

San Francisco spent only 4 years rebuilding.  They won 107 games last year and are over .500 so far this season.

The Tigers are in year #6 (officially, but you could add another year or two) and nowhere close to being competitive.  They are described as having single-handedly killed the strategy that tanking is the way to success.

The tanking method is no guarantee of winning.  It is dependent upon whom is leading the rebuild. 
And in this case, the Tigers were led by Al Avila.  The Giants?  By Farhan Zaidi.

That’s a Grand Canyon size difference.

So what could happen to the Tigers going forward?

Let’s start with Manager A. J. Hinch.

We now know that he doesn’t have an opt-out which was verified through multiple sources by The Athletic writer, Cody Stavenhagen.  Hinch is believed to have a 5-year contract, not 3.

But what is interesting is his dodge of when his contract ends.  I think he’s avoiding releasing the details because it might shed some light on Al Avila’s super-duper secret contract of indeterminable length.
The common thought is that Hinch’s contract extends beyond Avila’s.  Potentially so that he might slide into the GM chair upon Avila’s departure.

For multiple reasons, it doesn’t appear likely that Hinch would want to leave despite his mysterious refusal to answer contract questions. Requesting to be released from his contract would be a disaster of the greatest magnitude for the Tigers.  It also would tamp down Hinch’s desirability with other teams if he wanted to throw his hands up after only 2 years.

Let’s remember that A. J. came to Detroit (despite interest expressed by 5 other teams) because of Scott Bream (his best friend) and that the Tigers appeared to be the quickest way for him to be promoted to GM.  It’s well-known that Hinch wants to be a GM.

Meanwhile, the Tigers have hired many new personnel with either ties to Hinch or to those with whom he is close.  He has started building his own Front Office.  And it’s a definite plus when you enter a job knowing and liking many of the people there.

We’ll come back to Hinch shortly but in the meantime, let’s talk about Chris Ilitch.

No matter what some fans say, Ilitch threw $243 mill to Al Avila to spend just on just free agents alone this year.  And for what?  Regression and another 100-loss season?

You can bet he’s not happy.  If you lost that much, would you keep your current GM simply out of loyalty?  Would you keep him and repeat the check-signing once again next year?
 
Knowing that multiple sources have questioned Al’s roster building and being quoted as saying that Avila is in over his head?

And if most GMs in baseball believe that Avila doesn’t have the acumen or savvy to do his job, you better believe that they are going to continue to prey upon him when it comes to trades.  Wanna bet that his number is on every GM’s speed dial when they need something?

Ilitch is a businessman first, baseball owner second, and I believe that he’s not stupid enough to do the same thing again next year.  I believe that he will take steps in order to ensure that his future checks are well-spent.  What those steps are is still uncertain.

But now it gets tricky.

If he removes Avila after this season, who will take over?  It seems unlikely that Hinch would be promoted after only 2 years as manager.  And with losing records to boot.  Wouldn’t he want to see more promise before promoting?

But if Ilitch hires a new GM, it won’t be good news for Hinch.  Most GMs have, on average, 5 year contracts.  Hiring someone else to take Avila’s place may be the move that tells Hinch to look elsewhere for his next job.

A further complication with keeping Hinch as the manager may result in the Tigers losing George Lombard.  There are a number of teams who are interested in bringing him in as manager.  Some as soon as next year.  Keeping everyone in the same job could end up creating a brain drain.

Now, let’s turn to Al Avila.

To reiterate, multiple reports indicate that few believe he is cut out to be the GM.  No one supports any of the moves he’s made since 2015.  And now we have a national writer who states that Avila personally killed the “tanking wins” process.

Al himself indicated before this season that “the rebuild is over.”  It’s the reason why the Tigers didn’t trade Fulmer, Soto or Cisnero last season and why they extended Schoop.  Avila believed the Tigers would be contenders this year and would need them.

To use a baseball term, this man’s thinking is so off-base.  How can someone in charge possibly believe they would be shooting for a playoff spot this year and instead are fighting to avoid a 100-loss season?

So what will Ilitch do with his current GM?

We’ve already discussed above the odds of Hinch being promoted only after 2 years.  As well, the unlikelihood of allowing his GM to continue making stupid investments that won’t work out and waste payroll dollars.

Could Chris take away some of his duties like roster building?  Could he put others in charge of it?  Or could he ensure that multiple people are involved in the final decision-making process?

Currently, Avila is the Executive VP of Baseball Operations and GM.  Could Chris “promote” him to President of Baseball Operations and thus remove him from a job in which he builds the roster?

The President of Baseball Operations is a loose term that is interpreted differently by every team.  But in general, this position is more of a big picture one while the GM job is more day-to-day.

There are some teams who have multiple GMs and they divide up the responsibilities based upon each person’s strengths.

Could the Tigers do that, effectively taking away the roster responsibilities from Al?

Could Ilitch give Hinch expanded duties where he still manages yet has a vote on who gets signed?

This really is the sticking point.  A GM who has to go but his replacement not quite yet ready to take over.
Will Ilitch be willing to waste another year and millions more on payroll by keeping Avila for 1 more year? 

To extend that rebuild yet another year? 

To watch the young top players continue to age and get a year closer to free agency while also watching that window of contention get smaller?

And to watch that fan base continue to shrink because more and more fans are being turned off by the many years of losing and unwatchable teams?  Knowing that stats show organizations start to bleed fans after 5 years and that many of them end up never coming back?

Will Chris continue along the same path as this year realizing that MLB – and now fans – know that his GM has an industry-wide reputation as not being capable in his job?

Is he willing to listen to the increasing criticism and abuse on a grander scale in 2023?

Is he willing to take on the role of “the bad guy” that Avila currently absorbs for his boss?

Ilitch is in a tough spot due to timing.  Who knows what he will do?

But the one thing he cannot do is to stand pat.  There’s way too much to lose.

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What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday?

  • The Tigers have entered damage control mode. Who is their latest mouthpiece?

Why should you follow Totally Tigers https://twitter.com/totallytigersbb on Twitter?

  • We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
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WATERCOOLER WEDNESDAY

Today, another opportunity for readers to discuss the hottest topics in a forum where thoughtful dialog and a variety of opinions are welcomed. 

Let’s create some running conversational threads. And for those of you still going into offices, here’s a question to take with you – or use via Zoom calls – as you talk to your co-workers.
 
Here is today’s hot topic:
________________

Isaac Paredes and Jeimer Candelario were acquired by the Tigers in exchange for Justin Wilson and Alex Avila back in 2017.  Paredes made his debut in 2020 at the age of 21, starting just 30 games.  But he did well in the Winter Leagues, winning a batting title.

He played fewer games last year and struggled.  But he was also only 22.

Before the season started, the Tigers traded him and a draft prospect to the Rays for Austin Meadows, who has spent most of this season on the IL with various health issues.

This week, Isaac was named AL Player of the Week.  He has hit 10 HRs, driven in 21 RBIs (in 34 games) and has a .927 OPS.  Meadows has yet to hit a HR as a Tiger and has played in only 36 games.

If Paredes had stayed with the team, and assuming that his offensive skills are not different between the two teams, he would be the best hitter on the team in Detroit.

The Rays have a reputation of making outstanding trades that benefit them and the ability to correctly spot and evaluate talent.  Paredes is only 23 and has 4 more years of team control after this year.

Did the Tigers get fleeced on this trade?  Should they have seen this coming?

Or is this merely a fluke?  Will he come back down to earth?

Did the Tigers give up on him too soon?  Has he finally evolved as a hitter? Did the Rays have something to do with his improved plate performance?

What do you think about this trade?

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What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday?

  • What else did the Tigers lose by trading Isaac Paredes?

Why should you follow Totally Tigers https://twitter.com/totallytigersbb on Twitter?

  • We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
  • Want more than 1 Totally Tigers fix every day? How about throughout the day?

THE DRUMBEATS ARE GETTING LOUDER

by Holly Horning

It started well before Ken Rosenthal’s damning piece in The Athletic, entitled “Tigers’ Mess of a Season is the Consequence of Multiple Failings by the Organization.” 

Officially, the drumbeats started to be widely heard on June 4th, one day after the Tigers lost in horrific style to the Yankees.  A 13-0 drubbing that saw 3 position players being forced to pitch. 

Al Avila going on Bally Sports during the next game to do damage control.  I noticed right away that the Tigers had entered crisis mode.  And I wondered who told him he had to go on tv to do his version of the “All is well!” line that Kevin Bacon utters in the ending of Animal House

Certainly Al didn’t decide on his own.  He was told by either VP Communications, Ron Colangelo or maybe even Chris Ilitch himself.

It was that bad.

A couple days later, the Tigers had to endure the scrutiny of several analysts on Sirius XM MLB Radio.  They weren’t kind to either the Tigers’ rebuild or to Al Avila.  Their discussion centered around the questionable roster building moves.  Among the opinions expressed were:

  • Why was Eduardo Rodriquez offered so much money?
  • Signing Baez was a mistake given what stats and analysis are showing about future projections.
  • Don’t the Tigers know that if you have been one of MLB’s worst teams that you have to overpay in the beginning in order to get the players you need?  (Blogger’s note:  See Rodriguez, Ivan.)  They should have gone after Carlos Correa.
  • How could Detroit spend so much money and receive so little in return?
  • Avila was given such a significant budget to add players.  Did he feel compelled to have to spend it all?  It didn’t appear that he knew how to spend it wisely.

And then a number of other news organizations suddenly became courageous and started writing about what everyone else already knew.  (For the record, and if you are new to this site, Totally Tigers started questioning leadership and the rebuilding process quite a few years ago.)

So what is the common denominator among all these reports?

The consensus is that Al Avila is in over his head as a baseball GM.

But you knew that already.  Fans who don’t believe the hype or the PR writers masquerading as local Detroit sports journalists, saw this all within 2 years of Avila taking over as the Tigers’ GM.

Maybe if the writers – and Chris Ilitch – had listened to us all much earlier….. 

Fans know.  We are sufficiently detached from those who make the decisions and are too close to what is happening. We can see the forest for the trees.  We know when stuff smells to high heaven.

All of the critical reports we’ve seen recently are in agreement.  That Avila has consistently shown poor judgment in both trades and signings.

His free agent signings include: Jordan Zimmermann (even paid not to pitch in his final year), Mike Pelfrey (who ended up being paid $2 mill for each of the few wins he got) and a $77 mill contract for Eduardo Rodriguez despite having only 1 good year. 

And believing that Javy Baez could change the team and make the Tigers into contenders with his erratic performance history.  Let’s hope we’re wrong on this last example.

Now Avila has paid Jonathan Schoop $19 mill (in total through 2022) to hit .195 (through Monday).

His trades include Drew Smith for Mikie Mahtook and J.D. Martinez for 3 players no longer with the team.  Now, it’s keeping Jeimer Candelario and trading Isaac Paredes.

Let’s not forget that he also traded Mike Fiers for a song.

But the biggest blunder of all was the infamous Justin Verlander trade. On a par with the United States buying the island of Manhattan for just $24 of beads and trinkets.

JV, another player and $16 mill were sent to Houston.  In return, Detroit received Daz Cameron, Franklin Perez and Jake Rogers.  Perez was DFA’d, unclaimed and returned to Detroit where he has yet to throw a pitch in MLB.  This trade was rated the best trade (for Houston) by MLB Radio in the last decade.  Which means the Tigers made the worst trade in all of MLB in the past 10 years.

How did the Astros manage to keep a straight face through all of this?

And now?  It’s only Daz Cameron who’s left and sent back to AAA once again.  Meanwhile, JV won another Cy Young, pitched his third no-hitter and leads all of MLB in wins.  He also ranks near the top in ERA and appears to be the favorite for Comeback Player of the Year.

It was pointed out that Avila set the team back in rebuilding by not getting enough in return by dumping all these players.  That it has come back to bite the team and delay the rebuilding process. 

And it didn’t help that he didn’t move Michael Fulmer and Matthew Boyd when their values were high.  Boyd ended up being non-tendered and the Tigers got nothing in return.

Other reports I read several years ago quoted several GMs saying that Al’s trade requests for these two were “ridiculous” and “unrealistic.”

A number of reports revealed that even the international program the Tigers have is a bust.  Only 1 positive WAR player, Gregory Soto, has been produced since Avila took over.

Out of their current top 13 prospects, 8 of them are from the last 2 drafts.  Don’t expect to see them anytime soon to help with the rebuild.

Meanwhile, the positional holes continue to pile up rather than being solved.  Going into next year, there are serious concerns about who will take over catching, second base and third base.  Maybe the Tigers can trade for Isaac Paredes. Oh, wait….

The bottom line is that, under Avila, the Tigers have collapsed this year despite having top 5 draft picks in each of the past 4 years and spending $243 mill on free agents just this year.

They are going to have their 6th straight losing year and are currently on a pace to lose another 100 games.  They are performing at a “historically futile level” according to Ken Rosenthal and on a pace to score the fewest runs in their entire history dating back to 1901.

If this isn’t damning, I don’t know what is.

Rosenthal also points out that other teams are “more adept at identifying and developing above-average players” and “routinely come up with significant contributors for minimal acquisition costs.”  He goes on to write that winning teams “excel not only at evaluating players with other clubs, but also their own”  and that “the only reasonable conclusion to draw from the Tigers’ mess of a season is that they are failing on both fronts.”

Rosenthal goes on to reveal that a number of rival GMs anonymously told him that they don’t believe Avila is “creative and savvy enough to build a consistent winner.”

So many of us fans could have told him that back in early 2017. Almost 6 years ago.

The bottom line is that despite trying to imitate the tanking process that other teams like the Cubs and Astros used successfully, the Tigers are failing at it.  Tanking and getting top draft picks haven’t helped much.  And throwing money at the roster hasn’t either, esp. when you can’t correctly evaluate talent.

The Tigers are no closer to fielding a competitive team than they were 6-8 years ago.  And something has to be done now before players like Torkelson, Skubal, Greene and those 8 top prospects currently in the system are allowed to wither on the vine.

Now that so many are coming out publicly and challenging Avila’s competence, there is hope.  It can be ignored no longer.

#fireavila is trending on Twitter.  T-shirts with the same phrase are also selling well.

And that’s what we’ll address in Thursday’s blog.  Will Chris Ilitch simply look away and pretend that all is well after spending almost a quarter of a billion dollars on this putrid roster?

If changes are going to be made, what would next steps look like?

What are the options?

What could the Tigers’ future look like?

We’ll talk about all of that on Thursday so please save your comments about the future and potential changes for then. 

Today, let’s focus our comments on what is currently being said about the Tigers’ rebuild and Al Avila.

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What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday?

  • A Tiger made this year’s All-Start roster. But you’ll never guess who it is.

Why should you follow Totally Tigers https://twitter.com/totallytigersbb on Twitter?

  • We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
  • Want more than 1 Totally Tigers fix every day? How about throughout the day?

MONDAY MUSINGS

by Holly Horning

Throughout the week, there are so many smaller stories hitting the media.  They may be bite-size, but often they are just as important as the headline-grabbing news.  Sometimes, even more.

And that’s what brings me to today.  A way to discuss some of these stories. A way to bring them out in the open for discussion.

And that’s the plan for Mondays.  Keeping track of these mighty little bits that hit my radar throughout the week and sharing them with you today because I know one or more will also resonate with you. So, let’s kick off this week’s musings…


Baseball continues to lose fans on a yearly basis.  So what are they doing about it?

Making the game more exciting?  Making it more easily available to watch?  Pushing and supporting the game in Little League and schools?

Nope.  In conjunction with Nike, they are introducing “City Connect” uniforms “to craft a uniform that expresses the personality and communities of the team’s home city.” 

The old logos are gone and in many cases, the jerseys really look like t-shirts with pictures instead of words.  Think mountains for CO, surf board style for LA and cherry blossoms for Washington, DC.

Fortunately, the Tigers don’t have one yet.  It is expected that they will have their version before the end of 2023.  And you think that fans had a hard time with the slight change to the Olde English D…….

MLB and Nike claim that these new jerseys will bring fans and teams closer together.  And yes, they said it with a straight face.  But it’s really a money grab – a chance to sell something new and different.  And it’s part of the new contract that MLB has with Nike that goes for 10 years.

Interesting how quickly MLB can create something like this and yet, 4 years after announcing they are exploring how to attract more fans, they haven’t done anything of real substance.


How about that Isaac Paredes for Austin Meadows trade?  The one created, in part, because of the injury to Riley Greene.  It is turning out to be a huge whopper of a mistake.

Not only did the Tigers give up Paredes to the Rays, but they also gave up a draft pick.  Paredes is only 23 and making peanuts.  Meadows is earning $4 mill this year and under team control for only 2 more years.

Isaac has now hit 10 HRs for the Rays in just 33 games (through Friday).  And typical to the pattern, he is performing much better with a new team than he did with the Tigers.

Meadows has only played in 36 games so far this year as he has struggled with a host of health problems.

Ironically, the biggest mistake may go beyond this trade.  Jeimer Candelario is performing so poorly this year that the rumors of him being non-tendered have started.  And it doesn’t help when Jeimer tried to bunt with 2 men on base Saturday night in an independent move that had A. J. Hinch looking surprised and shaking his head. 

What if the Tigers had kept Paredes?  Well, they would have had someone to fill their third base position this year and potentially also for 2023.  (For the record, it’s turning out to be another poor trade as the Tigers acquired both Paredes and Candelario for Justin Wilson and Alex Avila.)

The lesson that should have been learned is that if the Rays want one of your players, don’t trade him.


Speaking of the Paredes-Meadows trade, the Tigers did it because they needed another bat.  However, their offense is so bad this year that they are on a pace to plate the fewest runs in their history dating back to 1901.

More than half the team is under-performing offensively this year.  And many are screaming for the Tigers to add offensive power.

But will that ensure that more runs will be scored?  No, if you look at this year’s stats.

Before the team decides to add a legit bat – that also comes with a legit salary – they need to solve their hitting puzzle.  Otherwise, it will be a waste of money.

Which one of these stories resonated the most with you?

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What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday?

  • The proof that Riley Greene is an exceptional outfielder means that changes are coming to the roster as players return from the IL. Who is most likely to be sent down?

Why should you follow Totally Tigers https://twitter.com/totallytigersbb on Twitter?

  • We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
  • Want more than 1 Totally Tigers fix every day? How about throughout the day?

DEEPER DISCUSSIONS

Tarik Skubal appeared to be turning into the ace of the Tigers’ pitching rotation.  He has pitched superbly this year until recently.

In his last three starts, he’s been progressively worse, giving up 6, 7 and 8 runs while also pitching fewer innings.  His ERA has gone from 2.15 to 3.63.  In his last outing, he lasted only 4 innings while throwing 99 pitches. His ERA over the last 3 games (through Friday) is 9.88.

But this is only his 2nd full year as a starter and he has yet to turn 26 years old.

Has your opinion of Skubal changed?  Do you still see him having the potential to be a top starter?  Is this only a rough patch that he is going through in his maturation as a starter?

Today’s blog addresses this dilemma and allows readers to share their thoughts in more detail. And hopefully, to actively engage with others by responding to their posts and creating back-and-forth discussion threads. The more the merrier!

For this one blog only, you’ve got 6 sentences max to share your thoughts. Of course, you can respond to as many other readers as you want.

TT will supply the ammunition. One thought-provoking question. Several options provided. One hard choice to be selected. One vote.

Ready?

How concerned are you about Tarik Skubal’s recent performance?

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What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday?

  • What is the trade of Isaac Paredes indicating?

Why should you follow Totally Tigers https://twitter.com/totallytigersbb on Twitter?

  • We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
  • Want more than 1 Totally Tigers fix every day? How about throughout the day?

SATURDAY SURVEY

Not a lot has gone well for the Detroit Tigers so far this season but today, we’re going to take a walk on the sunny side of the street.

What has been the highlight of the year so far?  What did you enjoy watching the most?

Was it Miggy’s historic run surpassing 3,000 hits and continuing his climb up the the ladder of history’s best players?

Or has it been the transformation of the notoriously and historically bad bullpen into one of the top ones in MLB?

Or is the debut of Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene?

Tell us by voting!

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What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday?

  • What do the latest hitting stats show about where the Tigers sit in all of MLB?

Why should you follow Totally Tigers https://twitter.com/totallytigersbb on Twitter?

  • We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
  • Want more than 1 Totally Tigers fix every day? How about throughout the day?

FIVE FOR FRIDAY

by Holly Horning

On Wednesday, this blog listed the 10 Tigers most analysts believe are the most likely to be involved in trade discussion talks with other teams.

They are:

Tucker Barnhart

Jeimer Candelario

Andrew Chafin

Michael Fulmer

Robbie Grossman

Austin Meadows

Wily Peralta  

Michael Pineda

Jonathan Schoop

Gregory Soto

So which of the 10 are the most likely to leave the team sometime this summer?

I’ve got my top 5.

In listing them, I’ve taken into account whether or not they will become free agents at the end of this year.  If they are likely to leave anyway, it makes sense to try to get something in return rather than allow them to simply walk for free.

I’m also taking into consideration their current performance.  As much as we would like to see other teams grab those who are struggling mightily, they probably aren’t going to want them either.  And if they do, the return will be minimal.  Unless these players offer something that other teams need or could serve as needed insurance/depth.

Financially, it also makes sense to look at the player’s contract and determine if the ROI is enough.  The Tigers have lots of holes they need to fill for next year, so cutting a higher salary or two makes sense because Avila is given a budget ceiling, not carte blanche.

And lastly, I’m also considering whether or not the Tigers have a replacement or someone in the pipeline for the guy who may leave. 

So who makes up my short list?  Here they are, listed in alphabetical order.

TUCKER BARNHART – He becomes a free agent after this year and is currently earning close to $8 mill.  When he was signed, Avila said they would work on extending him this past spring, but that hasn’t happened which tells me interest has cooled.  If he stayed, he’d be making app. $10 mill, which is way too much for what he brings to the table.

JEIMER CANDELARIO – His offense is sitting near a career low and he’s making almost $6 mill for 2022 with a raise due (arbitration) for 2023 before he becomes a free agent.  Might as well get something in return as 3B-men are in high demand and he could be a team’s backup.  He is already being rumored to be a likely non-tender candidate after 2022 if he stays in Detroit.  Might as well give Kody Clemens more experience and platoon him with Harold Castro.

MICHAEL FULMER – He’s making $5 mill this year and becomes a free agent in a few months.  To keep him, the Tigers would probably have to pay close to $8 mill/year and he would want a multi-year contract. That’s a high price for a reliever who pitches only a handful of innings each week.

WILY PERALTA – He just may fetch the best trade of all.  Signed to a minor league contract this year, he’s come up to provide some stability in the starting rotation.  He’s insurance for another team and can start or do middle relief.  He’s making $100,000 and offers great value. I see other teams jumping at him.

JONATHAN SCHOOP – He’s having the worst year of his career and making $7.5 mill with another $7.5 mill due next year.  Might as well get something for him before he becomes a rental.  Paired with Baez, those 2 are pulling down almost $30 mill/year which is outrageous given their complete lack of production at the plate.  He’s got defensive value for a team needing a 1B or 2B with a solid glove.

Who do you believe are the 5 best bets to be traded?

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IT’S BETTER WITH FETTER

by Holly Horning

Things are starting to look up for the Detroit Tigers recently.  It’s been a great week with a wonderful highlight.

Was it Riley Greene’s debut?  Or that the offense is starting to pick up?

Nope, none of that.

It’s because Chris Fetter is staying with the Tigers.

It’s the best of all possible news to come out of Comerica this year.

And I’m not even close to kidding.

Fetter is the man who took a ridiculously decimated starting rotation and kept them in the top half (#13) of all MLB starting staffs this year.  He’s also the one who took a bullpen and turned it into the #2 best one.

When did you ever hear that about a Tigers’ bullpen?  You’d have to go back to the days of Willie Hernandez.  (Again, I wish I was kidding.)

Fetter is also the guy who told the Tigers to bring up Beau Brieske because he was ready.  Brieske hadn’t been on the Tigers’ radar until Chris interjected.

Then you’ve got a half dozen pitchers singing his praises, including the latest, Alex Faedo.

But Chris’ decision to stay has roots that go much deeper.  And that’s what we’re going to discuss today.

First of all, I never believed that Fetter would leave Detroit after only 1.5 years.  He’s not the guy who places a priority on a job title or the amount of salary.  (For the record, colleges can directly approach a coach in MLB but MLB organizations have to ask other teams for permission to talk to a coach about a job to prevent poaching.)

As for salary, the U-M baseball manager makes $625,000.  Fetter is probably making more and after this week, I would expect that he got a bump in salary. Maybe even a chauffeur.

He has always come across as someone who likes creating someone new.  Being able to build something memorable from the rubble he is given.  Creating something out of nothing.

That is what motivates him.

Many MLB teams have been after him in the past to join their organizations.  And he turned them all down.  It just wasn’t enough for him to work in MLB.  He needed more.

And that more came in the form of A. J. Hinch.  The two bonded years ago and Hinch kept telling him they would eventually work together when the time was right.

Just several days after the Tigers hired Hinch, Fetter came on board.  And he joined because the two had crafted a vision of what they wanted to do with the Tigers.

Chris really didn’t need to think about taking the job as pitching coach.  He had made up his mind already to join Hinch.

When U-M came calling, it didn’t take Fetter long to turn them down.  He wasn’t seriously considering it.  And Hinch made it known that the Tigers would do what was needed in order to keep him.

So what does all of this mean for fans?

That Fetter staying is proof of a long-term commitment.  That he believes in what is happening in Detroit and the viability of what the Tigers are doing when it comes to pitching.

He has cast his vote in approving the Tigers’ plan by staying.

It also means that he and A. J. undoubtedly had some discussions when U-M came calling.  Fetter probably asked Hinch (if he didn’t know already) about his plans once his contract expires in a year.  Or, as rumor has it, Hinch’s opt out after this season.

I doubt that if Chris had any hunch that Hinch would leave in a year or two, he wouldn’t have stayed.

It now appears that both men will be staying in Detroit for awhile longer.  They have always come across as being tied at the hip.

Need further proof?  Fetter sold his home in Ann Arbor and he and his family bought a new house in Florida.

This also means that they believe they can achieve their goals. 

That they will be given what they need in order to do it. 

That Chris Ilitch is on board with their vision and will help make it happen financially.  Afterall, he did shell out $243 million just on free agents. Even more when you consider pay raises and arbitration salaries.

No matter what you think about Ilitch, there’s no denying that this is a solid commitment on his part. A quarter of a billion dollars invested in the team is proof.

Most managers and coaches, when they are considering a job offer, will ask the owner about what he will do in order to support their work, vision and goals.  No one is going to come on board if he is not promised what he needs.

But Fetter was known to always have a long-term vision about working in MLB.  He had done some work with the Dodgers previously.

And now he’s in the ideal situation of working with people he knows, trusts and enjoys being around.  Wouldn’t you kill for a job like this? 

There are also a number of Dodgers who have joined the Tigers.  Fetter was responsible for bringing some of them in.

He’s crafting his ideal job.  How many other places will allow you to do that?

And despite being a “pitching coach”, he’s so much more.  He has expanded influence within the organization that goes beyond the dugout and bullpen.  The Front Office listens to him.  How many other pitching coaches can claim that?

As a result, the Tigers have brought in people like Gabe Ribas and Stephanos Stroop who operate from the same mindset and style as Chris.  These 3 are revamping how the entire organization, not just at the MLB level, approaches and teaches pitching.

It appears that at least Hinch and Fetter are content in their jobs.  It also means that they see positive things eventually happening with the Tigers. 

That they’re seeing the pieces of the puzzle gradually being uncovered.  

That they believe in the process and plan. 

That’s why they’re staying, not bailing.

And that’s a reassuring sign for fans.  But it would be even nicer if things could move along juuuust a bit faster….

I think back to the old Leyland/Ausmus/Gardenhire regimes and remember that not a single manager or coach received a single offer or even passing interest from another team.  How so many of them were unemployed until the Tigers came calling.  And fans took note because it was a pathetic statement about the non-existent desirability of those who were leading the team.

When Hinch took over and hired his own coaches, he lost 2 of them in less than 1 year to other jobs.  Both promotions with other organizations.

All of a sudden, other teams were taking keen interest in hiring Hinch’s coaches away.

And it could have been three of them in less than 2 years.

I guess the lesson we all should take from this is to be careful what we wish for…..

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WATERCOOLER WEDNESDAY

Today, another opportunity for readers to discuss the hottest topics in a forum where thoughtful dialog and a variety of opinions are welcomed. 

Let’s create some running conversational threads. And for those of you still going into offices, here’s a question to take with you – or use via Zoom calls – as you talk to your co-workers.
 
Here is today’s hot topic:

The Detroit Tigers have had a disappointing year so far and rank (through Monday’s games) as the 6th worst team in MLB.

In just a short couple of weeks, teams hoping to contend will be looking for their missing pieces via trades.  The Tigers are widely assumed to be sellers once again this year.

The major baseball analysts have identified 10 Tigers who are expected to be on other teams’ radar.

Some of them – Tucker Barnhart, Michael Fulmer, Robbie Grossman, Wily Peralta and Michael Pineda – will become free agents at the end of the year.  Any team that signs them will have them only for a month or two and thus, their trade value will be diminished.

Jeimer Candelario, Andrew Chafin, Austin Meadows, Jonathan Schoop and Gregory Soto have also been rumored to be early targets by contending teams.  They have contracts that go beyond this year and will bring in a better trade value.

It makes sense to trade away the 5 players who will be leaving the team in October anyway.  But what about the others?

Should Candelario, Chafin, Meadows, Schoop and Soto remain and be part of the team?  Didn’t Al Avila say the rebuild was over?

Should the Tigers trade away controllable talent?  Do they have viable replacements for 3B, 2B, OF and their top 2 spots in the bullpen for the rest of this year?  What about for next year?

Is it a smart move to trade away talent or is this becoming an endless cycle of constant roster rebuilding?

Or could this be an opportunity to trade for talent to fill some holes?

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