FIVE FOR FRIDAY

by Holly Horning

Spring training games have just started and while it is still too early to make decisions about any of the players, there are certainly some interesting performances to watch.

And it’s not just the prospects and newest members we are watching.  There are also players who have worn the Olde English D for awhile who are no longer slam dunks to make the Opening Day roster.

So who makes the list for the most intriguing players to watch right now?  I’ve got my top 5 list…….

1. JUSTICE BIGBIE – After hiring Aaron Judge’s/Kerry Carpenter’s hitting coach back in 2022, he climbed 3 levels of the minors last year and in his first 4 games so far, is hitting .333.  He’s also been looking rather solid in LF, putting further pressure on which players will make the roster given the overcrowded outfield.

2. WILMER FLORES – His fastball gained 5 MPH since last year and he’s throwing 98-99 MPH.  Chris Fetter, Juan Nieves and Robin Lund worked with him in the off-season to change his mechanics and arsenal while also helping him become leaner physically.  If he maintains this level, it says amazing things about the people in charge.

3. JUSTYN-HENRY MALLOY – He is yet another candidate in a very crowded outfield but this kid is simply raking.  It’s being said that he has an elite eye and plate discipline when hitting.  Last year, the Tigers moved up in their offense but still finished #28 out of 30 teams.  Offense is the Tigers’ #1 need.

4. ALEX LANGE – His control issues from last year continue, recently giving up 3 runs in 1 inning.  He could not find home plate and was walking batters on straight pitches and constantly falling behind in the count.  With the rise of other relievers and the emergence of Tyler Holton, will Lange lose his coveted spot or could he not even make the roster?

5. CASEY MIZE – We knew it was going to be a rough re-entry but this man took us on a roller coaster ride his first time on the mound in almost 2 years.  His first inning was filled with walks and he threw only a one-third of his pitches for strikes.  He gave up multiple runs and couldn’t get out of the inning.  But because it’s spring training with different rules, he came back in the 2nd after a short rest, threw mostly strikes and retired 3 batters in a row.  Tighten your seat belts on this one.

Is there another player not listed above you believe is one of the team’s biggest and most intriguing story lines of spring training?  Name just 1 player and tell us why!


What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday?

  • Further proof about why Wilmer Flores made today’s list.

Why should you follow Totally Tigers https://twitter.com/totallytigersbb on Twitter?

  • We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
  • Want more than 1 Totally Tigers fix every day? How about throughout the day?

LOST OPPORTUNITIES

by Holly Horning

I’ve just returned from a number of weeks in Paris.  I must add that I made the trip home against my will.

So why am I mentioning this?

Because my many walks around my favorite place in the world started an inner dialog about baseball.

“Quoi?” (“what”?), you ask.

It had me thinking about the state of the game, which isn’t unusual.  If you’ve been reading my blogs over the past couple years, you know that I’ve watched Justin Verlander pitch while I was in Rome having an Aperol Spritz and antipasti.  In NY, it was pressing my nose against the all-glass front wall of the MLB Commissioner’s brand new headquarters (while my husband watched in horror).

Why not Paris as well?

What started my train of thought was seeing Paris prepare for hosting the 2024 Summer Olympics.  With less than 5 months to go, the city is hard at work renovating historic landmarks, putting up new sports arenas and starting to raise flags and banners.  The new logo is quite smashing, btw, done in typical French style and a wink.

On the drive in from the airport, I saw workers put the finishing touches on the new Olympic pool complex.  The best sighting maybe is the unifying symbol that is non-Olympic in nature – the unveiling of Notre Dame’s newly rebuilt spire that was lost in the major fire 5 years ago.  Instead of an Olympic dove, a glowing (literally) phoenix emerging from flames was newly placed on top of it.

But it’s really the smaller stuff that caught my eye.  Paris is ever-welcoming and they are installing sports parks of all kinds everywhere for their own residents and visitors to use.

Le football (soccer to Americans) of course.  Bike courses, gymnastic installments, climbing walls, volleyball, running courses, equestrian facilities and of course, plenty of sailing and rowing options around the Seine.

And lots and lots of basketball courts.  Everywhere.

You can’t help but notice.

As I walked by one of my familiar haunts next to major landmarks, a large swatch of empty space had been replaced with 3 basketball courts.  Special flooring, nice nets and backboards, even seating.  Sound systems that played popular music.  The French don’t do anything halfway.

And all 3 were filled with lots of kids – some with their dads – learning how to play the game.  It’s the hot new sport in Paris.

If you go into the stores, you’ll see departments filled with the latest and hottest sports equipment.  Even the high end specialty stores.  Bikes on rotating platforms and sports clothing that belongs on the runways.  Athletes have never looked so chic – or been so serious about their sports given the price tags I saw.

That’s how excited the French are about all the newness that the Olympics will bring. They absolutely love the new, the different, the unique.

But what didn’t I see?

Nothing baseball-related.

And that’s because both baseball and softball were dropped from this summer’s Olympics.  Not by France, but by the highest levels of the International Olympic Committee on which multiple Americans sit and are advised by MLB.

Someone dropped the ball.   In fact, the failure to keep baseball in the summer Olympics was labeled as an “olympic-sized blunder.”

Granted, these major sporting events are planned years in advance but MLB failed to keep their eye on the ball under Rob Manfred’s watch that resulted in the sport being dropped for the 2024 Games.

But really, the most important point to note is that it’s not really about this year’s Olympics.  It’s about the exposure of the sport to millions of Europeans, esp. the French.

MLB says they want to grow the sport and expose it to new fans yet they don’t perform due diligence.  Having baseball at the Games this year would have created legions of new and eager fans.  Just what they said they wanted.

Having those baseball fields built for visitors and residents would have created a foothold in France.

Parisians in particular are the perfect audience for a new sport.

The young especially make a special effort to keep up on what Americans their age are doing.

And I can tell you, the Parisians love being outdoors.  They get out every single day for reasons other than going to the office.  And they are physically active.

Where else do you see women in impeccable outfits w/3″ heels or men in suit jackets casually riding their bikes all over town?  Or that the Parisians will always pick an outdoor table over one inside for a meal even in the middle of winter?

They love the outdoors and they love to spend time on large green expanses of lawn of which Paris has quite a bit.

Hmmm, what sport could you play that involves both factors?

All over town, you see groups of boys gathered to play some type of game.  It’s not at all like what happens in the US.  It is common there.  It’s not hard to form a team.

So common that when our son was young a group of them came over to him at our cafe table and asked him to come join them in a game.

MLB had the perfect captive audience to introduce to baseball yet they failed to make it happen.  And yet they complain about the need to grow the sport and appeal more to the youth.

Think about it.  If baseball were played at this year’s Olympics, millions of French (and other Europeans) would have been inspired to learn the game.  Baseball would have started to grow in countries where it is not usually played.

MLB literally could have had this gift plunked directly into their laps. But they whiffed on 3 straight pitches instead.

So many missed opportunities.

So many missed new fans.

Maybe Manfred should have hung out with Adam Silver, NBA’s Commissioner.  Before assuming the top job, Silver ran NBA Entertainment.

It’s clear that the NBA knew what to do about the Paris Olympics.

Just don’t be surprised when basketball really takes off in France.


What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday?

  • The latest rankings of stadiums means Ryan Gustafson will be very, very busy.

Why should you follow Totally Tigers https://twitter.com/totallytigersbb on Twitter?

  • We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
  • Want more than 1 Totally Tigers fix every day? How about throughout the day?

WATERCOOLER WEDNESDAY

In the very first spring training game of the year, the Tigers got thrashed by the NY Yankees with a score resembling that of a football game. In the 2nd game, they lost a significant lead.  It all started some angst among fans.

But how important really are winning spring training games?  Is that the top priority?

Is the primary purpose different for teams depending upon where they are in roster building and in their competitive level?

Or is the primary purpose for a team to really test their newest players and try a lot of new strategies and experiments when the games don’t officially count?

What should the primary purpose of spring training for the Tigers be?

FINAL RESULTS FROM A FEBRUARY TOTALLY TIGERS POLL:

Which pitcher is most likely to earn the last slot in the starting rotation?

  • Reese Olson  65%    
  • Casey Mize  35%   

Why should you follow Totally Tigers https://twitter.com/totallytigersbb on Twitter?

  • We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
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THE END OF AN ERA?

by Holly Horning

I give props today to a loyal reader, Motorcitytiger, who planted the seed that I should write about the Cody Bellinger deal.  His suggestion helped to crystalize a blog I had been developing about free agency, Scott Boras and a certain former Tiger.

To start, it’s been noticed everywhere that the top 4 remaining free agents – Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell – are all Scott Boras clients.  This agent has been known to work out deals at the last moment but we are now into the 2nd week of spring training and it’s already a little late for the remaining 3 to catch up with players already well into their seasonal prep.

Now we have Bellinger who just returned to the Cubs.  His new contract is for $80 mill dollars for 3 years ($30/$30/$20) with an opt out after each year.  Consider this to be the equivalent of 3 1-year pillow contracts.

This contract is so very surprising given that Cody slashed .307/.356/.525 (.881 OPS) with 26 home runs and earned Comeback Player of the Year in 2023.

The top 4 analysts who predict such contracts estimated that Bellinger would receive a contract of 6-12 years ranging from $150 mill to $264 mill.  He ended up getting half of the lowest contract estimate in both years and salary.

So why the huge disconnect? All the experts are still trying to figure it out.

Let’s not forget that the reason you sign with Boras is because he has the reputation for getting his clients big, long contracts.  But not in this case.

The new Bellinger contract is very much of a temporary situation instead of a permanent one.  Bellinger and Boras are hoping for a great year so they can do this all over again.  And then, maybe again.

However, we’re also getting hints that Scott Boras’ commanding control over getting free agents signed to very pretty new contracts may be on the wane.

Potentially because teams are finding new work-arounds.

The Ricketts family, which owns the Cubs, refused to deal with Boras directly.  As you may remember, Boras said he only deals with owners, like he did with the late Mike Ilitch.  Bypassing the GMs and the entire chain of command.

Instead, they told Scott to deal directly with PoBO Jed Hoyer, who made the deal and had the upper hand.  Once he knew that no one wanted Bellinger for the price being asked, a reunion with the Cubs was logical.  He knew it, and so did Scott Boras.

You better believe that the other team owners were taking notes.  What are the chances that going forward more and more owners will refuse to take Boras’ calls?  It takes just 1 to change the rules.

On the other end of the spectrum, we’ve got Spencer Turnbull.  You may remember that in 2023, when the Tigers tried to send him to AAA, he hired Scott Boras.  It resulted in 8 months of wrangling over service time with alleged threats of legal action against the Tigers.

Wisely, the Tigers DFA’d him.  And unsurprisingly, there was no interest in him until Dave Dombrowski, his former GM and the man who drafted him, made a pity signing on the very first day of spring training.

Turnbull got a 1-year contract for $2 mill – a pay cut from his last salary with the Tigers.  He is not guaranteed to make the roster and this time around, he’ll be sent to the bullpen.

A signing that was made despite the very large red flag.  Turnbull now has that undeserved 5 years of service time which means he can refuse being sent down.  He has 1 option remaining so technically the Phillies can send him down.  But will he go?

I think we all know the answer to that one.

Quite frankly, I’m very surprised that Scott Boras took Turnbull on as a client.  No real resume, no real accomplishments other than a no-hitter.  Struggling in his pitching, a trouble-maker and not a team player.  Certainly the bad behavior he exhibited with the Tigers last year got noticed by everyone.

And I really do believe that the mess Boras and Turnbull created in trying to get that service time come hell or high water worked against them and damaged their reputations. Would you want to be forced into battle against a minor player of all people? A person who is taking up your time and energy that is better spent on addressing the needs of the entire team?

Again, owners, PoBOs and GMs are keeping notes. No one wants to deal with people who regularly upset the apple cart.

Is Boras simply spreading himself too thin?  Has The Boras Corporation grown so massively that they need to take on more and more clients in order to keep it running at a profit?

Or has the ego grown unchecked?  Does Boras believe that teams will continue to buy his overpriced free agents simply because of his reputation?

Or have teams really wised up?

Or both?

There’s a reason why Chris Ilitch has stated that he wants a sustainable team that has a top farm system and regular pipeline of talent. He doesn’t want to pay the outrageous prices his father did for free agents. Many of whom ended up crippling the team with their lack of production, ageing and huge contracts.

Maybe Chapman, Montgomery and Snell are now asking whether hiring Boras was worth the risk as they continue to sit by, waiting to find employment.  Each day that they don’t play is a ding against their value.

(Let’s not forget that another Boras client, J. D. Martinez, is also still without a job. Boras is asking for $20+ mill/year for 3 years. Martinez is a DH only and about to turn 37 years old.)

But will other teams now jump into the fray about his 3 remaining players?  Once a team gets a deal like the Cubs, others may thinking deals could be made on the others. Time has officially run out and Boras no longer has the upper hand.

But after what happened during this winter’s free agency, any players who will enter that realm after the 2024 season would do well to rethink their representation.

Especially if your competition for a new contract comes from other Boras clients. Wouldn’t you be leery if your agent also represented your competition?

The bottom line is that when all the remaining top free agents are still unemployed, the common denominator is the agent. Every team out there has said so by not willing to meet Boras’ price.

Ironically, in the long run, the possible loss of Scott Boras’ influence may just end up benefitting the Tigers to some degree, given how many players on the current roster are repped by him.


What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday?

  • Video of a precise throw – that had nothing to do with the game.

Why should you follow Totally Tigers https://twitter.com/totallytigersbb on Twitter?

  • We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
  • Want more than 1 Totally Tigers fix every day? How about throughout the day?

MONDAY MUSINGS

by Holly Horning

Today, it’s about quick hits – bits of news that catch my radar during the week as well as connecting the dots re ongoing stories.  Even the quirky.

So let’s get to it!  Here are the most interesting topics that hit my radar over the past week………..


We now have proof that the physical stats provided on players is often fiction in print.

Detroit Tiger fans marked each year of Miguel Cabrera’s tenure by noticing how much weight he had gained during a season and especially when he reported to spring training.  “The best shape of his life” became a yearly standard line by beat reporters determined to keep their jobs.  Fans turned it into a satirical statement.

Yet despite the obvious weight gains, Miggy’s official pounds didn’t change very much.

And now, we learned indirectly that Colt Keith’s weight has been seriously edited.  His stats show “211 pounds” but someone leaked that he is really 245 lbs and stands at 6’2″.

Under the Avila regime, he was told back in 2022 to “bulk up” in order to get more power.  And he took the task very seriously, it appears.

But earlier last year, Harris’ team told him it was too much.  He was asked to lose pounds.  So far, he’s lost 10 lbs. and there’s more to go.

And they say women are the ones most likely to fib about how much they weigh……


Speaking of proof, there’s more to add that supports the new player development system as being a game changer.  And it comes from Keith Law, of all people.

We all know Law as a Tiger hater and even he admits he has been historically harsh about Detroit when it comes to ranking their farm system.  Always a tough critic, he ranks the Tigers’ system at #6 with most analysts putting the Tigers at #5.  Law even ate crow in his confession that the Tigers have turned things around this past year.

He does admit that there are “a lot of misses still running around the system” – a reference to players drafted and primarily developed by Avila and his scouting, drafting and development teams. 

But Law now points to the jumps taken by a number of recent drafted prospects who appear to be headed towards being regular players or starting pitchers.  He gives Josue Briceno and Brant Hurter shout outs.  And points out that until 2023, Colt Keith and Parker Meadows were largely unfinished players – taking huge jumps last season in their advancement.  He even calls them “complete players.”

It’s one of his last comments that really attracts attention.  He said “I think it’s been some time since the Tigers had a success story like that.”

Fingers crossed.


Get ready for “pantsgate” and make sure that if you have underage children, they don’t watch the games.

We’re talking about the new baseball uniforms that Nike introduced that have created such an uproar that the MLBPA has gotten involved.  Nike asked for player input before designing the new uniforms and almost none of their feedback was used. 

The overwhelming majority of players truly hate the new uniforms.

First of all, many of the team colors are not correct and due to the “new technology” in fabric, Nike had to make the team logos and jersey numbers smaller.

Nike says that the uniforms are lighter and offer more flexibility.  Players say the fabric feels like paper and that the overall appearance looks cheap.

But then Nike is offering minimal tailoring.  In the past, players could have every aspect of their uniforms tailored.  Now they have to choose from 4 different body sizes with limited tailoring. 

Riiiight.  As an image consultant with years of experience working with men’s clothing (and a number of professional athletes as clients), I can tell you that this selection doesn’t even begin to cover how much choice men really need in order for clothing to fit properly.  And we’re talking athletes here who have special fit needs.

But it’s the sheer pants that are creating the biggest problems.  So sheer that you can see right through them.

I saw a picture of a player wearing his jersey tucked into his pants.  You could read the label on the shirt right through the pants.  And the shirt tail just barely covered the necessary bits as long as that athlete was standing still.

I think I blushed after looking at the pics.

But those poor players. As they had their individual team pictures taken, many of them had their hands crossed in front in order to cover up the most revealing parts.

Now teams are rushing through their storage rooms to resurrect the old pants because players are refusing to wear the new ones. Not all teams are that lucky to find the reserves.

Maybe MLB should have done their homework before signing that big deal with Nike.  It really does appear that they grabbed the highest contract without giving any thought to which company would turn out the best product.

Or maybe they should have considered that Nike has most of its factories in China and uses forced, often child, labor to produce their goods.

Not a good look for the players’ uniforms as it turns out.  Or a good look for MLB brass.

Which one of these stories resonated the most with you?


Why should you follow Totally Tigers https://twitter.com/totallytigersbb on Twitter?

  • We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
  • Want more than 1 Totally Tigers fix every day? How about throughout the day?

DEEPER DISCUSSIONS

Over the winter, Detroit Tigers’ PoBO Scott Harris emphasized that the young players coming up through the system and near their Detroit debut would not be blocked from playing.

Jace Jung is expected to inherit the 3B position.  Possibly at some point during the 2024 season.  He had been training extensively at the position with 3 different coaches.  Two of them Tigers, including Alan Trammell.  And there’s his brother, Josh, who is a Gold Glove caliber 3Ber for the Texas Rangers.  Reviews of his play are positive.

The Tigers have been without a regular 3Ber since the beginning of 2023.  It was announced that Matt Vierling, Andy Ibanez and Zach McInstry would share the position this season. 

However, within a week of watching spring training, the Tigers went out and signed free agent Gio Urshela to a 1-year $1.5 mill contract with incentives.  He has fully recovered from a broken pelvis and passed his medical exam.  He plays 3B primarily but also has some solid experience at SS.

Was this a good move for the Tigers?  A stopgap solution until Jung is ready?

Or is there too much risk involved?  Should the Tigers have done something bigger and more permanent in the free agent market to fill the 3B slot?

Today’s blog addresses this dilemma and allows readers to share their thoughts in more detail. And hopefully, to actively engage with others by responding to their posts and creating back-and-forth discussion threads. The more the merrier!

For this one blog only, you’ve got 6 sentences max to share your thoughts. Of course, you can also respond to other readers.

TT will supply the ammunition. One thought-provoking question. Several options provided. One hard choice to be selected. One vote.

Ready?

Make sure to come back and check the final results!

FINAL RESULTS FROM A FEBRUARY TOTALLY TIGERS POLL:

Should the Tigers trade Spencer Torkelson in 2 years?

  • Yes, for a solid trade piece.  74%    
  • No, keep him.  26%   

Why should you follow Totally Tigers https://twitter.com/totallytigersbb on Twitter?

  • We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
  • Want more than 1 Totally Tigers fix every day? How about throughout the day?

SATURDAY SURVEY

Spring training games are starting this weekend and the Tigers’ first tv broadcast is set for Sunday.

There will be lots of new faces on the roster – and in the tv booth.

Whether or not you will have access to viewing the game, let’s assume you will for the sake of today’s poll.

Which part of the game will you be most excited to watch for the first time?

All of the players – both returning and new – and game action or………..

….. the debut of the new Tigers’ play-by-play man, Jason Benetti?

Make sure to come back and check the final results!

FINAL RESULTS FROM A FEBRUARY TOTALLY TIGERS POLL:

Which is the most important concern to solve during spring training?

  • Increasing offense.  85%    
  • Filling the hole at 3B.  15%   

Why should you follow Totally Tigers https://twitter.com/totallytigersbb on Twitter?

  • We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
  • Want more than 1 Totally Tigers fix every day? How about throughout the day?

FIVE FOR FRIDAY

by Holly Horning

Spring training is only 8 days old since pitchers and catchers reported and already we are learning new and different things about this new group of Detroit Tigers.

The most obvious is that approximately half the players invited showed up well in advance of their report dates in order to get to work.  Some even arrived before the official start date.  Remember in the past when more than a couple players showed up beyond their report dates due to family issues, yearly visa issues, etc.?

But what else are we seeing that is new and different now that the new regime has been in charge for a full year? 

What is catching our eyes the most?

I’ve got my top 5………..

1. The clubhouse is becoming much more cohesive as the players now (for the most part) are all around the same age and experiencing the same personal and professional lifestyle experiences.  Note that 9 of them either got engaged or married within the past 3 months.

It’s been reported that friendships are running deep and the bonding process among all of them is taking off.  And now that Miguel Cabrera has retired, journalists have hinted that his absence has allowed others to be more demonstrative in their personalities, opinions and leadership.

I can’t help but remember similar stories that involved the Detroit arrival of players named Trammell, Whitaker, Parrish, Morris and others.

2. A. J. Hinch is involved in every potential signing of new players which is unusual for MLB managers to do.  He has traveled the country extensively over the winter to meet with players.  His psychology degree from Stanford obviously is a very useful tool in ascertaining a player’s fit with the team as well as present a favorable impression as a manager who truly understands and supports his players. He is definitely a selling point.

But if we go beyond, this is also a clue about Hinch’s future with the Tigers.  He was signed to a long-term extension this off-season so fans should expect that when his managing days are over, he will have a top position within the Tigers’ Front Office.

3. Remember in the olden days when the season was over, all the managers, coaches and players went their separate ways for 4 months?  When Jim Leyland, Brad Ausmus and Ron Gardenhire ghosted their players until February?  When they were often surprised by the condition some players arrived in when they reported?

Not anymore.

Tiger players are now spending their winters checking in with their managers and coaches at least once a week.  All had exit meetings before leaving with goals and homework plans detailed.  Many players send weekly videos of their work back to their respective coaches.

And now we’ve also learn that Tiger managers and coaches have spent the winter traveling and working with their players.  Often, players are assembled into small groups of 3-5 and spend weeks training together.  Hitting coach Michael Brdar spent the last 2 months working with a group of players.  Their work schedule?  Five days a week.

4. Scott Harris continues to successfully hide his hand and make moves we never thought would happen – until they do.  While trying to manage fans’ expectations with explanations of why the team is doing what it does, we’ve been constantly surprised by his continued moves to improve the roster.  Such as stating that signing another bat wasn’t in the team’s future or that the young players would not be blocked.

Until yesterday afternoon when Gio Urshela was signed.  He’s a plus defender, plays 3B and has a lifetime .290 BA.

5. On a related note, the signing of Urshela is one of the first signs that the Tigers are finally moving away from their historical lack of a sense of urgency.  Delaying decisions and their pattern of refusal about persistent problems that remained unsolved.  See “bullpen, 2012 – 2016.”

Harris has told us time and time again about the need for young players to get playing time and not be blocked in their development.  That he wasn’t going to go out and sign a veteran to fill a position that a young player was expected to fill.  He maintained that stance until sometime early this week.

It look less than a week of watching the infield practice to understand that cobbling together several players to man 3B wasn’t going to work as expected.  He then pivoted on a dime and signed Urshela to fill the void until the expected arrival of Jace Jung later in the year.  It’s a 1-year contract and is the best of both worlds – filling a great need for a short period of time yet still allowing Jung the ability to get quality playing time when he’s ready.

It’s a sign that the Tigers are effectively using their analytics system, acknowledging mistakes and having the ability to remain flexible in their decision-making – and not waiting until mid-season or the end of the year to make significant changes.

This quality also tends to bode well for how this team may evolve during the year.  Last season, Harris wasn’t hesitant to cut multiple established players from the roster.  I also think that if another off-season of trying to cure Javier Baez doesn’t work, the Tigers won’t hesitate to say goodbye to him years before his contract will officially end.

Is there something else the Tigers are doing differently this off-season/spring training that has caught your eye?


What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday?

  • More proof as to why Gio Urshela was signed.

Why should you follow Totally Tigers https://twitter.com/totallytigersbb on Twitter?

  • We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
  • Want more than 1 Totally Tigers fix every day? How about throughout the day?

THE FOLLY OF FORTUNE TELLERS

by Holly Horning

It’s that time of year again.  The time when all of baseball’s fortune tellers take out their crystal balls and make their predictions about each MLB team’s performance for the year.

They might as well be using Magic 8 Balls.

I’m always perplexed about how any rational human being can predict a year in advance.  If they could, would they really be doing this?  Wouldn’t they be better off in Vegas or on Wall Street?

I’ve come to conclude they do it solely for the clicks or to build their readership on fan controversy.

One thing you will never see on Totally Tigers are these yearly predictions.  For a reason.

Even systems like PECOTA, which is a sabermetric program based upon algorithims, is touted as being the most accurate method out there.

I beg to differ.

As proof, I offer what they predicted for the Tiger going back to 2021.

2021 – Prediction:  67 wins/95 losses

           Record:      77 wins/85 losses

2022 – Prediction:  75 wins/87 losses

           Record:      66 wins/96 losses

2023 – Prediction:  65 wins/97 losses

           Record:      78 wins/84 losses

2024 – Prediction:  75 wins/87 losses

As you can see, none of these predictions listed above came anywhere near the actual performance.  And now Tiger fans are up in arms over the 2024 proclamations.

And rightfully so.

So let me get this straight.  The Tigers have improved their roster since last year and PECOTA is predicting they will lose 10 more games?  All of this despite every analyst out there giving the Tigers a “B” (upper third of MLB grades) in their off-season efforts?

It’s the same group of people who predicted that in 2022, Jeimer Candelario would be the team’s best player and that Miguel Cabrera would remain steady in his performance.  As we all know, Candelario had probably the worst year of his career and got DFA’d after the season.

But the biggest issue I have with all these prediction systems is that they only take stats into account.  Nothing else.

Here’s what they ignore that directly impacts how well a team performs:

1. Injuries, esp. to key players.

2. Depth of the farm system to cover for players getting injured.

3. Character of the players.  Who has goals they want to meet?  Who is driven to perform?  Who is playing for their next contract?

4. Who is the manager?  Are they all created equal or are some better than others?

5. Who is the GM?  Do they all perform equally well and make the same smart decisions?

6. What is the strength of the franchise?  Are they proactive? Do they have strong or weak player development, analytical, scouting and a synced organizational approach?

None of this is taken into account by any of these projection systems.  It’s as if the intangibles and business models don’t count at all when they matter greatly in every other industry.

What they’ve really done is to take the heart and soul out of this sport.  The same factors that make us real fans of the game.

Which is why I urge fans to simply ignore these predictions.  Make your own.

Because baseball is more than a bunch of numbers.


Why should you follow Totally Tigers https://twitter.com/totallytigersbb on Twitter?

  • We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
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WATERCOOLER WEDNESDAY

Exactly 1 year ago, PoBO Scott Harris was just taking over the Tigers.  Fans did not know much about him yet.

He had spent the previous 3 months brooming much of the organization and systematically giving the roster a full edit.

When he took over, there were big question marks at catcher, first base, third base, shortstop, right field, etc.  This season, the positional questions are much fewer. 

During the first year of his tenure, the Tigers won 12 more games than in 2022 and finished in 2nd place.  The first time since 2016 but they were still under .500.

What is the level of confidence you currently have about the direction of the team going into 2024?

Make sure to come back and check the final results!

FINAL RESULTS FROM A FEBRUARY TOTALLY TIGERS POLL:

What do you think of Jim Leyland’s decision?

  • Understandable given his career.  70% 
  • Disappointed in his decision.  19%    
  • He should have picked a team.  11%   

Why should you follow Totally Tigers https://twitter.com/totallytigersbb on Twitter?

  • We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
  • Want more than 1 Totally Tigers fix every day? How about throughout the day?