FIVE FOR FRIDAY

by Holly Horning

Most people in baseball look forward to the PECOTA Projections being released.  Except for some of us, not this year. 

It has historically been known as the most accurate prediction of how individual players and teams will perform for the coming year.

In case you are not familiar, PECOTA stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorith.  It is a sabermetric system, meaning that it is a subset of analytics but involves more complicated stats and is a product of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR).

Very simply, sabermetrics is a system that evaluates past performance and predicts future performance to determine a player’s contributions to his team.

Before I go any further, you’ll be happy to know that at no time during this blog will math be required.

So what did they say about the Tigers for 2022?

Surprisingly, they have the team losing 10 more games this year and occupying last place in the AL Central.  They’re forecasting 67.3 wins, 94.7 losses and a W/L % of .415.

Whaaat?

Yeah, I don’t believe it either.

PECOTA was wrong last year.  The Tigers finished in 3^rd place and won 10 more games than projected, finishing with 77 wins and 85 losses for a .475 W/L%.

And that was without all the new signings for the 2022 season.

In fact, I’m going to make my own predictions.  Detroit is going to improve on last year’s record.  I won’t say where in the standings they will finish because that is more of a factor about how the other teams will perform, but I believe they will end up above .500 and be competitive within MLB to some degree. I think somewhere in the mid-80’s for wins is a safe bet.

Here are my 5 reasons to support my argument:

1. A. J. HINCH

The Tigers played horrendous baseball during the month of April because the players and Hinch were trying to get to know each other.  But mid-season and on, they played over .500 baseball.  With a year under his belt, the Tigers will get off to a faster and better start. But the biggest reason? Managers really matter and so do their coaches. And for the first time in decades, the Tigers truly do have the best.

2. CULTURE CHANGE

Hinch and his coaches have instilled a new attitude and believe system in the clubhouse.  These players are hungry, positive and p****** off (Hinch’s words) that they didn’t do better last year.  There is finally a truly competitive spirit that has taken over.

3. THE NEW SIGNINGS

How can a team not get significantly better with the addition of 2 Gold Gloves in Tucker Barnhart and Javier Baez?  And adding 2 new starting pitchers in Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Pineda?  Plus a promising reliever in Andrew Chafin?  How do you spend the 5^th most out of 30 teams in the off-season, get graded an “A” for your moves by everyone and possibly lose 10 more games?  Nope, these guys are worth at least 10 wins.

4. T& G

You know who they are.  Torkelson and Greene.  Ranked #4 and #5 in MLB’s top 100 prospect rankings.  They’ve got the gloves.  They’ve got the bats.  And there’s no reason to believe that they won’t make the Opening Day roster next week.

5. DEFENSE

Last week, I wrote about how miserable the Tigers’ defense has been since the early 2000’s and especially horrible since the tear down.  But no more.  They added 2 Gold Gloves.  But the addition of Torkelson and Greene will be especially note-worthy because it means defense will be solidified up the middle.  With Tork at 1B, it means Jonathan Schoop can move back to 2B where he is a plus defender and can turn double plays with Baez.  With the addition of Greene, he’ll play CF.  Now you’ve got 2 Gold Gloves and 2 plus-defenders creating a solid defensive line up the middle that all competitive teams have.

What do you think?  Will the Tigers advance or retreat this year?  Will players outperform or regress?

Are there other factors that you can add to my list that will help the team?

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THE LOST GENERATION

by Holly Horning

I want to start with a sad tale. But it’s one that hopefully has a happy ending.

Let’s start by digging into the past. We need to do this so we can compare it with what is going on now.

You will never read about it in the major Detroit dailies but the national sports writers are reporting it. 

And many Tigers fans have been aware of it for quite awhile now.

The prospects have been falling through the cracks.

At least until this year.

Too many stories of how long players are taking to climb the minor league ladder. 

Too many stories about prospects stalling at certain levels. 

Too many stories about prospects who get called up and can’t survive.

Too many prospects simply disappearing or aging within the system. 

And it’s not unusual to see some of them in the minors for 6-7 years.  Daz Cameron and Kody Clemens have been in development for ages now and are expected to stay there, for the most part, this year as hopefully the new powers that be try to get them back on track.

And then you hear the stories about players who have been struggling and end up hiring their own coaches outside of the Tigers’ system.

The list is endless:  Derek Hill, Parker Meadows, Jake Rogers and others all hiring Doug Latta to help them with their hitting.

The infamous story about JaCoby Jones being advised by Scott Bream and a Tigers’ scout to go hire his own hitting coach.

Too many stories about how Lloyd McClendon continued to teach players an antiquated hitting system that messed them up.  Including Jeimer Candelario until he was able to work with someone else.

Then you’ve got the prospects the Tigers got from some infamous trades as they tore down the organization 5 years ago:

Franklin Perez, Daz Cameron and Jake Rogers for Justin Verlander

Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara and Jose King for J. D. Martinez

Grayson Long and Elvin Rodriguez for Justin Upton

Wilkel Hernandez and Troy Montgomery for Ian Kinsler

Nolan Blackwood and Logan Shore for Mike Fiers

Alex Lange and Paul Richan for Nick Castellanos

All of these new players were fairly well-ranked from their former organizations.  Where are they now?

Was this simply a matter of Al Avila making horrendous trades or was this an issue of the Tigers’ failure to develop them properly?

Or a bit of both?

Take a look at top draft prospects the Tigers collected. Beau Burrows, Christin Stewart, Derek Hill and Jonathon Crawford. The best of the bunch, Matt Manning, spent 5 years trying to make it to Detroit.

If top draft picks are struggling, doesn’t it make sense that the players acquired via the trades listed above would have an even more difficult time?

Well, Tiger fans, there’s good news now at the end of this dark tunnel.

There’s a light.

Changes are being seen as the Tigers were finally motivated to change their Player Development system.

Ryan Garko is now in charge after leaving the best system in MLB (Dodgers) for Detroit.  He brought in Director of Pitching Development Gabe Ribas, Director of Coaching and Field Coordinator Ryan Sienko, Lower Level Pitching Coordinator, Director of Latin America Player Development, Euclides Rojas and others.  All from a variety of backgrounds that come from MLB, colleges, Driveline, Texas Baseball Ranch and other independent organizations.

In all, Garko brought in 15 new people to oversee the system.

The Tigers finally started to poach from the best organizations instead of hiring (and re-hiring) their unemployed or retired friends.

A recent interview with Garko stated that the Tigers started adding all of the technology 2-3 years ago but they didn’t have anyone who could effectively translate it or communicate the information through the minor league system.  As a result, players suffered and didn’t develop as they should.

Now, Georgia Giblin, the Tigers’ Director of Performance Science – and known as a leader in her field – has people she can truly work with who will maximize her findings.  Garko helped to expand her department this past off-season and it is expected that her bio-mechanical work will also appear at the Detroit level.

Starting this year, bio-mechanical analysis is the first step all new prospects are required to do.  It is a high-tech movement screening that gathers data about how that particular body moves and functions.  That data is then used to maximize a player’s form so he can compete at the best of his ability instead of trying to be made to do things that his body is incapable of doing.

For example, Jackson Jobe just had his analysis and is now working with Gabe Ribas to understand what he does best.  This will help formulate his arsenal.

Garko publicly recognized that there is a huge gap between the Tigers’ elite prospects and the rest of their minor league system.  His goal is to close that gap, develop a pipeline of prospects and keep replenishing talent. This echoes what Chris Ilitch has been saying about building a sustainable system and pipeline of talent.

Going forward, this new system will be crucial in the quest to continue to get value out of the draft. Especially important as the Tigers perform better and, as a result, start receiving lower draft slots.

They have now developed a system where instruction is the same throughout the system.  The organization is now also focusing in teaching the same belief and culture systems.

Finally, we have a Tigers Way. Only 6 years after Al Avila stated that the Tigers were going to develop a universal system.

So what does this system look like?

Every tier of the minor league system has development coaches.  They are essentially modern bench coaches who also focus on studying and communicating data that is used for both pre-game and post-game preparation and analysis.

These coaches are in constant communication with analysts and all of the hitting, pitching and fielding coaches.

But the most important change to understand is that the Tigers no longer use a vertical method of instruction.  Simply put, it is an outdated system where information flows down 1 line to the manager who then sends it down to the next coach.

They have moved to the much more effective horizontal system.  Information flows across the entire top to multiple people who then trickle it down to multiple other coaches and players. The information ends up being more detailed and personalized.

So what would this system look like in AAA Toledo, for example?

Lloyd McClendon, as manager (once again), no longer has the power and influence he once held.  He will not be instructing players how to hit. (Phew!)

While we’re not quite certain how this system is going to play out, it is likely he will be more of a day-to-day manager of games and helping disseminate information to players and coaches.  It is unclear if he will be able to adapt to the technology aspect of the game with an ability to translate computer reports into usable information.

But there are area coordinators above him who will be providing information and instruction.  As well, his coaches will be following information provided to them by those higher up in the Player Development system.

And Lloyd’s got a whole new staff.  We know he got the job after the sudden passing of Kimera Bartee and resulting promotion of Gary Jones to Detroit.  But it’s clear that Player Development and A. J. Hinch were the ones who hired the AAA coaches.

They are all, for the most part, brand new to the Tigers.

Tony Cappuccilli is the new bench coach/development coach and really, the power behind the throne.  All info is going to flow through him.  He came from the Dodgers.

Doug Bochtler came in the same time as Hinch and both have a record with the Padres.  He’ll be the pitching coach.

And Adam Melhuse is also new.  Like Cappuccilli, he came from the Dodgers.

These will be the most important men in Toledo.

But the one thing I noticed from reading multiple interviews with players and personnel about the new Player Development system and the new hires? So many of them point to A. J. Hinch as having a hand in these changes and influencing some of the hires. One may deduce that he was an agent of change, if not the primary one. It may have been a condition of his employment.

Time for us all to send Houston some thank you notes.

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• A national article that digs into the Tigers’ Player Development system.

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WATERCOOLER WEDNESDAY

Today, another opportunity for readers to discuss the hottest topics in a forum where thoughtful dialog and a variety of opinions are welcomed.

Let’s create some running conversational threads. And for those of you still going into offices, here’s a question to take with you – or use via Zoom calls – as you talk to your co-workers.

Here is today’s hot topic.

Due to the CBA negotiations, spring training was shortened this year.  And because of that, all teams will be able to carry 2 extra players on their roster for the first month of the season.  The reason is to help reduce the workload on pitchers who are not fully stretched out.

Organizations do not necessarily have to add 2 pitchers.  They may add whomever they feel will work best for their team.

In the Tigers’ case, they have Wily Peralta and Michael Pineda who are still having work visas processed and cannot yet pitch in actual games.

What would your strategy be if you were A. J. Hinch? 

Would you add 2 players who you feel are currently MLB-level ready in order to avoid last year’s horrendous April start?

Or would you use this month to give top prospects who didn’t make the roster some extra time for experience and further evaluation?

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What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday?

• A national article that describes the Tigers’ culture change in the clubhouse.
• An updated value of the Tigers’ franchise, operating profit and where they rank with the other 29 teams.

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SPRING TRAINING TEASERS

by Holly Horning

With 11 games now under the belt, it’s time to make a few observations about the Tigers.

A. J. Hinch and his crew have started to winnow down the roster.  For other players, increased playing time may also be indicative of what may happen before the team heads north to Michigan.

From what we’ve seen so far, what plausible deductions can we make?  I’ve got my top 10 list……..

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1. Ryan Kreidler has been told he won’t make the roster, however Hinch wants to keep him in Lakeland to play.  As a shortstop, Kreidler is obviously blocked by the recent addition of Javy Baez.  But Ryan is now going to focus on playing SS, 2B and 3B when he goes to Toledo.  Don’t count him out yet making the roster as injuries or an opt out by Baez in the near future could change the strategy suddenly.

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2. On the other hand, things don’t look good for Daz Cameron who has just been sent down.  A. J. said that Daz “needs to see general improvement across all of his game.  If you grade out where he’s at defensively, there’s a lot of attention-to-detail things that he can improve on to be an impactful player. His skills and tools are as good as anybody that we have in the outfield. Applying it consistently is a big challenge for him.” Cameron was drafted in 2015 and been with the Tigers since 2017.  He is the second oldest prospect in the advanced minors system.

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3. Speaking of not looking good, Kody Clemens, was just sent down as well.  He is the oldest player and about to turn 26.  I see this as part of the process of weeding out the older prospects acquired under the old outdated system and raised in the Tigers’ iffy and old player development department.  You could say that both Clemens and Cameron are victims of that system and conceivably just fell through the cracks as better and younger players came along, had access to a better development system and displaced these two.

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4. On the other hand, is there any doubt that Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene won’t make the Opening Day roster?  They are doing everything being asked of them and playing every day.  And Hinch has praised their attention to detail.  Besides, if they are named to the roster, the Tigers get extra draft picks as a result of the new CBA.

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5. This is the first time that I have actually publicly heard current players announcing that Tork and Greene need to make the roster.  Five and counting now, including Miggy and Baez.  It’s not just a clubhouse discussion which means the Tigers are going to have immense pressure to includes these 2 or have to answer a slew of media questions for why they were not.

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6. From prospects to the grizzled veteran,  Miguel Cabrera has stated that he will give up playing first base if Spencer Torkelson can take over.  Whatever you may think of Miggy’s behavior, he’s always been unselfish when it comes to doing what’s best for the team.  Let’s remember that he volunteered to give up first base and return to playing third (after app. a 4-year hiatus) when the Tigers wanted to sign Prince Fielder who could only play first base.

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7. On the subject of Miggy, there is way too much chatter from fans about wanting him to retire after he reaches 3,000 hits.  They feel that he will be a drag on a team trying to compete.  And it’s an idea that is totally unrealistic. There is no way any player will forego a $32 mill/year paycheck plus an $8 mill buyout.  It’s $40 million!  And there’s no way the Tigers will simply give him that money as a parting gift.  Besides, until another player comes along to inherit the face of the franchise title, Miggy will remain.  He is still the biggest attendance draw on the team.

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8. Akil Baddoo continues his fielding struggles, esp. in hitting the cut-off man.  But I don’t see him being sent down for that.  Currently, he’s either leading or tied in the significant hitting categories and given what we saw last year, he’s a fighter who won’t give up. He’s got the personal qualities that A. J. Hinch admires in players.

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9. Now with the departure of Daz Cameron, it’s down to Baddoo, Reyes and Hill to join Grossman in the outfield.  Oh, and Riley Greene.  Derek Hill and Victor Reyes have similar offensive stats in these short number of games but analysts are saying that Hill has been improving at the plate.  He also is classified as having an elite glove, which Reyes doesn’t have and it may be the determining factor in which player stays.

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10. I’m not putting much stock in how these spring training games play out.  It’s a time for experimentation and getting back into the grind. But it’s also about how a rebuilding team prepares for the season in contrast to a team that already has a stable, solidified roster.  The Tigers’ roster is changing in 7 out of 8 positions and there’s a lot more to analyze.  Unlike teams with returning and intact positions.  I believe the more A. J. Hinch experiments with what works and what doesn’t, the better prepared the team will be and the higher level of knowledge the organization will have.

Which one of these inspires your thoughts and comments?

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What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday?

• PECOTA predictions are out. Why don’t we believe what they say about the Tigers’ 2022 season?

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MONDAY MUSINGS

by Holly Horning

Throughout the week, there are so many smaller stories hitting the media.  They may be bite-size, but often they are just as important as the headline-grabbing news.  Sometimes, even more.

And that’s what brings me to today.  A way to discuss some of these stories. A way to bring them out in the open for discussion.

And that’s the plan for Mondays.  Keeping track of these mighty little bits that hit my radar throughout the week and sharing them with you today because I know one or more will also resonate with you. So, let’s kick off this week’s musings…

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Everywhere you look during these spring training games, there he is.  Roger Clemens.

Attending every game to watch his son, Kody, play.  Special seats.  Clubhouse access.  Guest speaker. 

Even Kody is wearing his dad’s number.

And Roger is also doing interviews, including talking about his son.

I can’t help but think that Clemens is in Lakeland 24/7 in a slightly-subtle attempt to push his son onto the roster in the immediate future.  Kody is, afterall, the Tigers’ oldest advanced prospect.  This is his 5^th year in the minor league system.

Is there any other grown 26-year-old who would welcome a hovering parent?  Clemens reminds me of those parents who are always front and center at their kids’ sporting events, offering coaches their advice and asking why their kids aren’t playing more. The simple act of hovering sometimes pushes a decision.

Are other parents not named Clemens as visible at their sons’ baseball games?

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“D” is for “Dinosaur” not “Detroit.”

Jim Leyland is being interviewed frequently (at least 3-4 times per week) and it ain’t pretty.

Late last week, he was asked some questions about the bullpen.  His response:

“You wanna know my definition of a good bullpen?  A starter who can give me 7 innings.”

For the record, when this quote was read, both announcers laughed because, as it was assumed, the belief was so out of date.

Someone needs to remind Leyland that it’s 2021 and he hasn’t managed for almost a full decade now. Stats have shown for quite awhile that once a pitcher gets through a lineup twice, his effectiveness goes down significantly as batters reach their third appearance at the plate.

Yep, that means starting pitchers are most at risk in the 6^th or 7^th innings.  And today’s managers pull their starters before this happens.  Intentionally.

Let’s not forget that JL is the same man who publicly announced (and not too long ago) that he didn’t believe in analytics.  So this opinion is not surprising. 

Lest you think this a Leyland-bashing, it’s not.

It is an alarming red flag about an organization that has people with power and influence who hold wildly contrasting beliefs to the mainstream. Especially now as the Tigers have turned the corner and updated how they see, reactive and adapt to how baseball is now run.

It is about a traditional baseball man who hasn’t adapted to the game and a current manager who is considered to be one of the best and embraces the latest and greatest theories and strategies.  A 77-year old who is publicly hinting that he doesn’t believe in what the Tigers’ current 47-year-old manager is doing.

You know what they say about too many cooks in the kitchen?

What about former managers who gave up the title 9 years ago but still hang around and sound off?

How do the Tigers handle this?

How can Al Avila listen to both men’s advice?  Especially when Leyland sits with him at every spring training game and is always seen taking notes. And in Detroit, JL is often seen sitting in the executive box, doing the same.

How do you think Hinch feels about Leyland dissing analytics to the media?  He’s the same manager who doesn’t allow his coaches to speak to reporters in order to maintain a constant message.

Does A. J. feel he is being undermined?

Is he receiving resistance to anything he wants to do or promote?

Is there any other team that keeps their old managers around to offer advice and do interviews?

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The Tigers are finally addressing their defensive issues up the middle.  A new catcher, new shortstop and hopefully, a second baseman who gets to return to his normal position.  All that needs to be solidified is a centerfielder.  Maybe someone with the initials R. G.

Instead of Niko Goodrum and Willi Castro, the team will have Javier Baez and Jonathan Schoop.  A huge improvement.

The Tigers were near the top of MLB in inducing double-play balls. However, they were one of the worst teams in the number of double plays they actually converted.

Schoop has a negative DRS when he plays first base, which is not his natural position.  But he’s a plus defender and Gold Glove finalist when he plays second.

Baez is one of MLB’s top double play turners.  Google his name and “double play” and tons of video describing his “smooth” technique pop up.

This combo should be a thing of beauty to watch this year.

Which of these stories resonated the most with you?

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DEEPER DISCUSSIONS

The Detroit Tigers are in their first real year of shoring up their roster with competitive players. Their starting rotation is getting stronger and the infield has improved significantly.

Yet there is still much more work to do.

Bullpens are notoriously fickle. The performance of relievers can be unpredictable from one year to the next. Last year, the Tigers’ bullpen ranked #22 in MLB.

The outfield is in the process of rebuilding. There is 1 veteran who is on the last year of his contract. Three others with some MLB experience and spotty results so far. And then there is the impressive prospect who just may make the team’s Opening Day roster.

Last year, the outfield was weak defensively with all players ranked below average defensively.

Comerica Park is user-friendly for pitchers, however, it poses a problem for those who man the outfield due to its size and gaps.

So which of these 2 areas needs the most attention?

Which area will help the team more?

Which area will offer the team the greatest improvement in performance?

Which area of the roster should be the priority for improvement?

Today’s blog addresses this dilemma and allows readers to share their thoughts in more detail. And hopefully, to actively engage with others by responding to their posts and creating back-and-forth discussion threads. The more the merrier!

For this one blog only, you’ve got 6 sentences max to share your thoughts. Of course, you can respond to as many other readers as you want.

TT will supply the ammunition. One thought-provoking question. Several options provided. One hard choice to be selected. One vote.

Ready?

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What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday?

• Final results of all 3 polls from last week. How did you fare with the majority of fans?

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• We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
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SATURDAY SURVEY

The Detroit Tigers still have a few decisions to make on the Opening Day roster.  One of those areas is the outfield.

Robbie Grossman is assured of a spot.  Akil Baddoo is also likely to return.  And it is appearing more and more certain that Riley Greene will make the roster.

That leaves 1 open spot as A. J. Hinch prefers to carry 4 outfielders.

The three most likely candidates are Daz Cameron, Derek Hill and Victor Reyes.

You may find their stats here:
https://www.mlb.com/tigers/stats/

Which one of these players is most deserving of making the roster?

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What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday?

• How good is the Dodgers’ player development system? A national writer has the evidence which only bodes well for the Tigers who poached a lot of them.

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FIVE FOR FRIDAY

by Holly Horning

The best news to come from the Detroit Tigers late last season was the brooming of the Player Development department.  A horribly-run area of the team – a combination of neglect, outdated systems and decision-makers not well-versed in what was supposed to be their area of expertise.

Too many players languished or stalled in their development.  Others that were highly-touted disappeared.  Many came up to Detroit poorly prepared.

But now Ryan Garko has taken over.  He comes from the best player development system in the country, the Dodgers, and brought others who wore the Dodger blue with him.  The department also went out and poached the best and the brightest from other top organizations.

But Garko also expanded the department.  There are a number of specialized coordinators who focus either on defense, offense or pitching.  They are the ones who are in charge now of developing these players properly.  The minor league managers and coaches are no longer the sole sources of training and coaching.

So how will we know how well this department is doing?

By watching certain prospects’ movements – or not – within the organization.  How quickly are they mastering their level?  How are they distinguishing themselves?

As for me, I have my eye on that approximate window of contention.  If the Tigers are going to play meaningful baseball into the fall, there is a clock ticking. All of these guys have to come up comfortably within the approximate time frame. Remember when they did that with Tram, Lou, Morris, Parrish and others?

Three starting pitchers have already come up.  Torkelson and Greene are expected this year, if not by Opening Day.

But what about the rest?

Tucker Barnhart is only signed (currently) for this year.  Jonathan Schoop has 2 years left.  Javier Baez can opt out in 2 years, too.  Jeimer Candelario can become a free agent in 2 years. The Tigers conceivably may have to replace the entire left-to-middle side of the infield.

Robbie Grossman has 1 year left.  Assume that Riley Greene will debut this year but otherwise, there are 2-3 other potential outfield openings.

The point of all of this that the Tigers will have a lot of holes to fill.  And all of these guys will need a year or two to adjust before they are able to make regular, solid contributions.

Meanwhile, Mize, Manning and Skubal inch closer and closer to free agency.

The Tigers will need to move more quickly than they ever have.

In recognition of that, I’ve picked my top 5 players that I’ll be watching most closely this year in hopes that the new player development system helps them evolve much more quickly.

I’ve tried not to focus on starting pitching for this year.  This is also the area in which the Tigers have shown the most progress.

I’m also not watching the handful of top pitching prospects who are recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Or some of the most recent draft picks like Jackson Jobe, who just starting throwing.  Maybe next year.

So who are my top 5?

DILLON DINGLER

The Tigers are desperate for catching.  Currently, there are no catchers signed beyond 2022.  He needs to be able to come up this year so he can learn from Barnhart and Garneau in preparation for 2022.

ROBERTO CAMPOS

The Tigers need outfielders and bats.  Campos offers both and he could conceivably be that 1-2 punch with Riley Greene both at the plate and in the outfield.

CRISTIAN SANTANA

He plays SS and 3B – both positions that could see the current regulars leaving after 2023.  The Tigers gave him the largest international signing bonus in their history.  They need to make sure it pays off.

RYAN KREIDLER

We’ve been hearing about him forever since he was selected 4^th back in 2019.  He’s a shortstop and the Tigers really need to finally start developing this position.  The only SS I remember Detroit successfully developing as a home-grown talent is….. Alan Trammell.  I wish I was kidding.

KODY CLEMENS

He is the oldest Tiger in the top tiers of the organization, having been drafted way back in 2018.  A second baseman, he could take over for Schoop in 2 years.  But I see Clemens as a huge marker in evaluating the new Player Development department.  If he finally puts it all together, we’ll know that Garko and his squad are hitting their marks.

Which prospect will you be watching the most this year?

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What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday?

• What is the Tigers’ strength when it comes to defense?

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• We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
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LEARNING FROM HISTORY

by Holly Horning

The Detroit Tigers were in the news a lot over the past 5 days.

But not for the reasons you might think.

There’s a lesson here that can – and will – be applied to today’s Detroit Tigers.

But first, the background.

A number of baseball analysts were consumed with how Dave Dombrowski was rebuilding the Phillies and pointed out that he’s doing the same thing he did with Detroit when he was the GM.  Collecting mashers who are slow and defensively challenged.

The Athletic wrote: “We mention that because his vision for those Tigers was quite similar: a fearsome offense that ranked in the top two in runs scored in both seasons. High-end starting pitching fronted by Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. A roll-the-dice bullpen. And a defense that ranged from adequate at best to shaky at worst, at pretty much every position.”

Last year, the Phillies had MLB’s worst defensive record.  They are expected to double down on that and finish even worse this year with a “roster of DHs”.

So why am I bringing this up?

So we can understand where the Tigers have to go this year in order to improve in the standings.

For all the talk about the starting rotation, offense and a bullpen, not enough fans are actually focused on defense as being a major factor in taking a team into October.

And the best way to measure defense is by using the stat Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).

DRS measures the number of runs a player saved or cost his team on defense in comparison to an average player. A negative number means he cost the team runs.  A positive number means he saved runs.

Some of baseball’s analysts have repeatedly brought up the Tigers from the mid- 2010’s as an example of a team loaded with talent but with horrible defense.  Evidence shows that few teams make it into the playoffs with shaky defense. And none of those teams end up winning the ring.

The last team that did make the playoffs with bad defense?  The 2013 and 2014 Tigers who had an astounding  – 59 DRS and  – 61 DRS respectively.

It wasn’t just the bullpen, folks.

Now, let’s dig into the most recent numbers Detroit has been putting up.

First of all, the last time the Tigers had a positive defensive number was 2011.  A decade ago.

In 2012, the team ranked #24 out of 30 defensively.

They ranked in the top 10 for 2006 but near the bottom in 2008. In 2013, they were again near the bottom, costing their team over 70 runs.  The same for 2014.

That’s not a formula for winning playoff games.

In 2017, the Tigers took a deeper dive defensively.  Their DRS was  – 115.

As a basis for comparison, the top defensive team in 2019 saved 105 runs.  The Tigers were dead last, costing their team  – 111 runs.  The #29 team saved over 50 more runs than the Tigers.

And if you break DRS down by position, the Tigers finished #29 or #30 in almost every category.

Now let’s see how the Tigers have done since A. J. Hinch and his coaches came on board by comparing the 2019 team with that of 2021. (Not using the Covid-shortened year of 2020 for obvious reasons.)

Defensively, the Tigers improved significantly at the pitching, 2B, 3B, SS, LF and RF positions.

They regressed at C, 1B and CF.

However, while there’s improvement, every single defensive position cost their team runs.  In other words, every position was below-average.

Despite the improvement, Detroit ranked 28^th in MLB for catching, 29^th at first base, 28^th at shortstop and 29^th at centerfield.

Only 8 players (mostly pitchers) finished in the positive numbers.  But not by much. Most of them had a  +1 DRS.

Five players had a 0 DRS.  A whopping 19 players had a negative DRS.

Only 1 infielder finished with a positive DRS.  Jake Rogers, who is out recovering from Tommy John surgery.

The worst defensive player on the team?  Willi Castro, the only one in negative double digits.

The Tigers finished the year sitting at #26 with a DRS of  – 36.   MLB’s best team had a  +90 DRS.

There’s still a very loooong way to go.

There were 2 high points though.

The Tigers finished #3 in DRS last year while employing the shift.  However, after 2022, the shift is going to be greatly modified so the Tigers are going to be pressured to compensate for losing it.

And they finished #1 in MLB for best defensive outfield positioning.  You can send your thank you notes, flowers and chocolates to George Lombard who is the one responsible.

This should put to rest once and for all the belief by some that coaches don’t matter.

Given all of these stats, it’s now clear why the Tigers signed a new catcher and shortstop.  And why they signed who they did.

Tucker Barnhart has won 2 Gold Gloves.  In 2020, he had a +9 DRS despite it being a shortened season.  No Tiger in any position has come anywhere near that number.

Javier Baez has won 3 Fielding Bible Awards and he is an elite defender at both SS and 2B.  He is also one of the top leaders in collective DRS, saving +6 to +10 DRS per season.

With these 2 signings, Jonathan Schoop should hopefully be able to move back to 2B when Spencer Torkelson makes the roster.  Schoop has been a positive defender at 2B, but not at 1B.

Catcher….shortstop….. second baseman…..

… and centerfielder.  The last piece of the puzzle for strong defense up the middle.

Will it be Riley Greene’s this year?

Hinch is the first manager in ages to place a priority on defense.  And Al Avila is the first GM to understand the importance of DRS which is why he went after Barnhart and Baez.

The Tigers still have a ways to go in order to field a strong team but if they can help other players work towards positive defensive runs saved this year and get the team to break even overall defensively, it will be huge progress.

Willie Mays said it best:

“Defense to me is the key to playing baseball.”

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What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday?

• Totally Tigers isn’t the only one to recognize George Lombard’s value to Detroit.

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Why should you follow Totally Tigers https://twitter.com/totallytigersbb on Twitter?

• We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
• Want more than 1 Totally Tigers fix every day? How about throughout the day?

WATERCOOLER WEDNESDAY

Today, another opportunity for readers to discuss the hottest topics in a forum where thoughtful dialog and a variety of opinions are welcomed.

Let’s create some running conversational threads. And for those of you still going into offices, here’s a question to take with you – or use via Zoom calls – as you talk to your co-workers.

Here is today’s hot topic.
______________________________________________________________________________________________

The Tigers finally have what is expected to be their starting rotation:  Matt Manning, Casey Mize, Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Pineda and Tarik Skubal.  Tyler Alexander is expected to hold down a slot until Pineda has a chance to get ready.

The team signed Eduardo Rodriguez just before the CBA lockdown to a 5-year $77 mill contract.  He will be 33 years old at the end of his contract.

Here is a link to his stats:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodried05.shtml

Analysts say that his numbers really are much better than indicated as one of MLB’s worst defenses (Boston) was behind him last year and inflated his stats.
 
Casey Mize will be 25 in a couple months and entering his third season (1 full year, 1 partial year) with the Tigers.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mizeca01.shtml

He has only been working with Chris Fetter for 1 year.  Mize has also announced that he’s back to addressing his splitter this year.
 
Which 1 of these 2 pitchers needs to have a stand-out year the most?

If you’d like to leave a comment in addition to voting, what factors were the most important ones in your decision?

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What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday?

• A new Tiger is still wearing his old uniform in his social media pics.

• What does Michael Fulmer’s new salary mean for him and the team going forward?

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Why should you follow Totally Tigers https://twitter.com/totallytigersbb on Twitter?

• We tweet out breaking news before it’s published in the sports pages. The best news from the best sources.
• Want more than 1 Totally Tigers fix every day? How about throughout the day?