THE CLOCK IS TICKING

By: Holly Horning

There’s been a rumor out there about A. J. Hinch ever since he was hired.  A rumor about his contract.

And, of course, the 2 major local papers never reported it.

But other national writers have.

First of all, there are lots of rumors out there.  Some true, some not.  And for me, the condition of reporting it must rely upon at least 2 highly-reputable sports journalists putting it in print.

Let’s just say that I had a lot of digging to do.

But now I can write about it.

First of all, Hinch has a 3-year contract with the team.  (The organization refused to reveal that information.)  It’s still unknown if there is an option year which gives the team the power to retain him.

But it also appears that A. J. is only the third manager in history to have an opt-out clause in his contract.  Joe Maddon was the first, followed by Terry Francona, 10 and 6 years ago respectively.

And what does that clause say?

That Hinch can opt out of his contract if “expectations are not met.”

And that appears to be good news for fans.  We’ll talk about that shortly.

So let’s put together a timeline.

A. J. would not leave the team after just 1 year.  That’s too soon for anyone to gauge what exactly is going on and the potential going forward.  Also, leaving a team after only 1 year doesn’t make any manager look good.

By process of elimination, the opt-out would kick in after year #2 – at the end of the 2022 season.  And hopefully, there will be one given the threat of a new CBA.

Now, let’s look at the logic.

First of all, Hinch is a very smart man.  He’s checked out the organization, he’s talked to people and done his homework.  He didn’t walk blindly into Detroit.  There was a reason he spent 3 marathon days meeting with organizational brass.

He was not desperate for a job.  Still highly sought after despite the Astros scandal.  Look at all the other players and managers with lesser qualifications.  They all got jobs immediately when their suspensions were over.

He and Scott Bream have been close friends for decades and worked together.  You know he’s talked to Scott, who recruited him for the job.

Bream is VP Player Personnel and in charge of scouting.  He earned the reputation as a “super scout” and was highly sought after by other MLB teams, including the Dodgers.  One of his biggest claims to fame was the push for Dave Dombrowski to trade for Max Scherzer.

In case you’re wondering, Bream isn’t in charge of player development.  You know, the recent stories that lambast the Tigers for having a seriously outdated development system for prospects.

Dave Littlefield is.  He’s in charge of the entire minor league system from the players to the coaches to the minor league organizations.  He also earned the reputation of being the Pittsburgh Pirates’ worst GM ever.  After he left, the organization literally undid every single trade he made.

But back to Hinch.

You don’t think that Scott had a discussion with A. J. about the player development system?  That Hinch came to Detroit not knowing anything about how the Tigers run their minor league system?  Of course, he does.  Don’t forget, he headed up the Padres scouting department.  He probably talked to a lot of people.

Some fans fear that he will be poached by another team, leaving the Tigers for greener pastures.  But that can’t happen because of strict MLB rules that say personnel can’t be approached about another job until they leave their current one.

But we know (see last week’s blog – https://totallytigers.wordpress.com/2021/05/11/when-thin-isnt-in/) that Hinch now calls and updates with each minor league manager on a weekly basis.  And he’s doing it for a reason.  He’s gathering evidence and charting progress – or lack thereof.  All part of a plan to sit down with Al Avila at the end of the year to discuss the team’s direction.

You don’t think he’s the type of manager to sit on his hands and take direction, do you?  He’s smart, not silent.

And it’s completely logical, if not expected, that both Hinch and Bream have discussed a bigger vision of how to revamp the farm system into one that can reliably feed qualified prospects to Detroit.  Afterall, an improved system benefits both of them.  Bream’s scouting would be showcased much better in the development of the players he finds.  And the prospects would thrive and come up to Detroit for A. J. to manage.

It’s a win-win.

No more putting 3 catchers into the lineup in one game because your roster is stretched thin and there’s no help coming up from Toledo.

And if you saw the recent progress report on the top prospects in the minors, it is rather discouraging.  Granted, the season is early, but no one, especially the top prospects, is wowing anyone.

Which now brings us back to Hinch’s timeline.

Including this year, 2 years and ticking until a hard choice may be on the table.

If changes aren’t made in the off-season, no changes will be seen next year and the top prospects will only be a year older.  Hinch will be hard-pressed to stay that third year when, realistically, nothing that would show results had been done to improve the situation in 2022.

But if the system is revamped after this year, the fruits of Scott Bream’s scouting may start paying off in 2023.  And will Hinch decide to leave when top talent finally starts to ripen and arrive?

Unlikely.  He’ll want to stay in order to see this out.   He likes a challenge.  And this team is probably MLB’s biggest challenge!

But there’s one ultimate speedbump.  Chris Ilitch.

Will he agree to invest in new personnel?  And will he agree to change decision-makers, esp. Littlefield and possibly Avila?  You know that Hinch isn’t going to throw his boss under the bus.  It’s not smart and it’s not professional.

The degree of change will be completely up to Ilitch to implement.

And he’s going to have to make changes or put the Tigers into MLB’s worst spiraling death dive if he doesn’t.

Imagine the response to A. J. Hinch opting out of his contract with the Tigers because “expectations weren’t met.”  Walking away from a team because managing it is a lost cause.  A very public announcement.

At that point, you might as well take out full page ads for every major newspaper announcing that the Tigers exist in name only.

Detroit would never again be able to get another halfway decent manager as long as Ilitch owned the team.  Only those who are desperate for jobs and unemployed for years need apply. 

Um, been there, done that already.

Top talent for other organizational departments would avoid Detroit at all costs.  Drafted prospects may even avoid signing with the team given that the reputation of how horrible player development is now front page news.

Avoiding change would be the ultimate nuclear option – and a death sentence for the team.

With his contract, A. J. Hinch has effectively thrown down the gauntlet.

It’s up to Chris Ilitch to pick it up and doing something with it.  Before this team turns into sports’ version of District Detroit.

What did you miss on the Totally Tigers Twitter feed yesterday?

–  Just how good is Michael Fulmer as a reliever?

– Matthew Boyd is climbing the stat board.

– Further proof that there’s no help coming from Toledo.

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