WHEN THIN ISN’T IN

By: Holly Horning

The drumbeats are getting louder, folks.  And all of it coming from the national media. 

Shocker, I know.

Of course, butter wouldn’t melt in the mouths of the sportswriters from the 2 major Detroit dailies.  Instead, they get their marching orders from the Tigers and circle the wagons around the owner, GM and talent on the team whenever a critical story comes out about the rebuild (or “rebuild”, if you prefer).

And they’ve been kept very, very busy lately churning out these fairy tales.

Last week, the national writers and radio shows questioned the validity, vision and progress of what the team is doing to return to a competitive level.

This week, three more stories.

The Athletic continues their solid analysis, this time focusing in on why the team is so terrible in all aspects of playing the game.  Cody Stavenhagen writes: 

“The root of these issues lies deeper — in a player development system that lagged behind for years, in increasingly ugly trade history, in a pandemic offseason in which the Tigers didn’t exactly live up to claims like “building up” and “win now.” The faults for baseball’s worst team ultimately land on the doorstep of ownership and the front office.”

We know about the trade history and the failure of the team to add players in a season where bargains were everywhere.  Even earning the distinction of being the only team not to sign a regular first baseman for some peculiar reason but we all know that it was related to the owner’s unwillingness to field a competitive team by spending the necessary money.

And we’ve certainly known since 2017 that this all falls on the shoulders of Chris Ilitch and Al Avila.

Given the implosion in Denver, MLB Radio analysts discussed why the Rockies are a failed and dysfunctional team.  Their farm system with players not coming up as expected and touted.  The same people in charge for decades who stick together in one small clique and refusal to bring in new faces or any fresh perspectives.  And the analysts’ mandate?  “All must go.”  A brooming that is necessary in order for this organization to move forward.

Sound familiar?

We’ve talked so much about most of this already when it comes to the Tigers.  What we haven’t fully explored is the Tigers’ player development system.  But we’ve had our suspicions – with certainly enough evidence.

The Tigers, and some fans, are quick to point out that they have a top farm system.  But that ranking is solely due to high draft picks from multiple years of tanking.  It’s not like the Tigers have excelled at developing lower draft picks and they shot up through the system.

The way most farm rankings works is not due to merit or talent seen.  It’s a point system that awards top draft picks, esp. #1 picks, a much higher number of points.  Some who evaluate using actual talent identify “elite” prospects which is based upon the actual skills and results seen in the minors.  The better teams have multiple elite players.  The Tigers have none.

Now, let’s look at who is in the Tigers’ top 20 system:

#7 – Joey Wentz (recovering from TJ surgery)

#9 – Daz Cameron (on IL for months, now with broken wrist)

#10 –  Alex Faedo (2 surgeries including TJ)

#14 – Jake Rogers (too painful to mention)

#15 – Franklin Perez ( 25 innings in 3 years and now injured again)

These 5 constitute 25% of the Tigers’ top 20 prospects.  But some of these prospects are, really, no longer prospects.  They’ve been around too long and aren’t moving up through the system well.  Perez never got out of A ball.

We’ve seen a number of them on the IL more than on the field.  One who hasn’t pitched in 2 years and is still ranked highly in the system. 

Do you see how silly this rating system really is?  It’s fool’s gold.

Many assume that because a player came highly ranked, that he’s a slam dunk to play in the majors.  Nothing is further than the truth.  Less than 60% of the #1 draft picks make it to the majors and last longer than a year.  And approximately 70% of all prospects don’t make it beyond a year.

The five listed above have the odds of making the majors stacked against them.  How many of the other 15 will make it?

And that’s the real question.  Do players succeed in reaching the major leagues because of their reputation or because of the coaching and training they receive in the minors?  Or both?

As we’re about to see, the crucial factor is player development in making or breaking the advancement of prospects.

Which now brings us to A. J. Hinch and an innocuous interview done with him in the 2 Detroit dailies that was presented as a filler piece. 

Except, it’s not.

Statements from the manager about how he checks in regularly with all the managers down in the minors at least weekly to discuss progress.  He’s the first Tigers manager to do that.

It was an eye-opener for me.  A very pleasant one.  A hopeful one.

You see, Hinch’s background includes a stint as VP of Professional Scouting for the Padres.  He was also the Farm Director for the Diamondbacks.

When he moved to the Astros, A. J. was included in the discussions involving signing and promoting players.  Jeff Luhnow liked his background in player development which was a major factor in hiring him.

While he was there, the Astros picked apart their entire farm system, brooming instructors, managers, coaches and scouts.  Luhnow said that you can’t be afraid to fire people if they aren’t on board with the direction of the team and unable to implement and translate the data required to the players.

Houston instituted advanced technology for their minor league teams that allowed for more info and feedback.  It resulted in better performance because the players finally understood what worked for them and what they needed to do in order to reach their goals.

All of their prospects received biomechanical evaluations that improved their hitting, pitching and fielding.  And Houston pioneered the position of development coach which is used throughout their entire minor league system and now roundly copied by other teams.

Copied because Houston had the best farm system in MLB when it came to results and player advancement.

Copied because Houston has the best player development system in all of MLB.

Copied because (just as one example) the Astros took 3 sub-replacement level (less valuable than fringe players) athletes and turned them into bona fide stars because of their advanced player development system that identified each player’s strengths and helped them improve their weaknesses.

Oh, those players names?  Jason Castro, Colin McHugh and…….Jose Altuve.  (For the record, Altuve wasn’t even drafted and spent only 3 years in the minors before his MLB debut at age 21.)

The Astros system has been widely described as creating a “string of spectacular successes in data-driven player development.”

Which brings us back full circle to Hinch and his phone calls.

He’s gauging how each team works with its players and develops them.

Why?  Because he’s a former scouting VP and farm director.

And he’s gathering evidence of how the players perform – or don’t.

Because, in October, he’s going to have a serious chat with the Front Office about the changes that need to be made.

The Tigers wouldn’t have hired him if they didn’t like this “value added.”  And A. J. wouldn’t have accepted the job as being just the manager when he had widespread responsibilities in Houston.

He had a role in helping the Astros become successful at all levels.  Afterall, it’s the manager who reaps the benefits of having a certain level of talent on the roster.

And let’s remember that he didn’t come to Detroit because he was desperate for a job.  Like everyone else who was implicated in the cheating scandal, he would have easily found a new home.  He came because his best friend is Scott Bream, who coincidentally, is the Tigers VP of Player Personnel and probably the only competent member of the Front Office.

You don’t think that these two have a plan for improving the minor leagues during the off-season?

It’s not just a coincidence that Hinch landed here.  He sees a chance to dig down into this organization and improve it.  But he needs at least a year in his managerial role to ascertain what is going on and get to know those who are running things in A, AA and AAA.

And that’s why he calling all these minor league managers.

Collecting evidence.  Or the lack thereof.

If the Tigers are going to tank once again, they need to make it worthwhile this time.  Maybe even try to save some of the high draft prospects already in the system.

And maybe, just maybe, Chris Ilitch will understand how much money he is wasting by not having a player development system that can turn this straw into spun gold.

Fingers crossed.

What did you miss on the Totally Tigers Twitter feed yesterday?

–       The latest on the health of Franklin Perez.

–       Why the KC series is so important for the Tigers.

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