PROMISE, PRAISE AND PRAYER

by Holly Horning

We’re going to combine a couple topics routinely covered here at Totally Tigers because they really are all connected to each other.  It’s because all 3 can help explain the success or lack thereof when it comes to some Tigers’ performance.

On Tuesday, we covered the history of Detroit’s first round draft picks and how that honor was no guarantee of success.  In fact, potentially not offering those players any advantage at all in their development.

We’re also going to return to the topic of the new player development system that started to be implemented back in 2022 and more fully last year.

Lastly, we’ll add what to expect from the young players when they get promoted and the timeline needed as they adjust to the major league level.

For purposes of this discussion, our conversation is going to center around 3 players – Riley Greene, Wenceel Perez and Spencer Torkelson.  Three players with 3 very different development and progression experiences.

Greene, Perez and Torkelson all started off their careers in the old farm system.  One has had the advantage of reaping the benefits of the new program over the past 2 years.

That person would be Perez, who languished in the minors for 5 years until he took off in 2023.

Without a doubt, we now have enough proof that the new player development system developed by Ryan Garko and polished by Scott Harris is doing its magic.  Too many players who suddenly got better.  Too many players who are singing the praises of everyone who worked with them on their skills. 

That never happened under the old system.

Perez was in the Tigers’ system for 6 years before being called up to Detroit.  His stats until last year were unremarkable but then, under the new system, he jumped 3 levels in 1 year.

And now we’re seeing him in Detroit.  It’s been a very nice debut.  So much so that he remained in Detroit after being called up to replace a player going on the IL instead of being sent back down.  And he’s only 24.

In less than 2 weeks, he hit 3 HRs and driven in 8 RBI, while hitting both LH and RH pitching.  In fact, it is rumored that Zach McKinstry’s job is in jeopardy because Perez is that good.

He made some very nice catches in the OF, where the new Front Office moved him.  Al Avila and his crew had him playing the IF for 5 years despite not having the arm required for that part of the field.

The signs are all there for Wenceel to succeed now that Harris, Garko et al have figured out how to maximize his skills.  But this doesn’t mean that he won’t struggle at some point down the road.

We have to remember that young players, esp. rookies, are very green.  Their development will come in spurts and it certainly won’t be linear.  Wenceel is a work in progress this year and most probably will be next year as well.

It’s the third year that is really telling about the talent level of a player.

Speaking of green, let’s now turn our attention to Riley Greene.

For purposes of discussion, we’re going to ignore the one-third of both 2022 and 2023 that he missed due to injury.  Injury will always be the biggest concern when it comes to Greene given his history.

In 2022, he put up solid, not exciting numbers, for his first year.  His slash line was second best (out of the regular players) behind Eric Haase.

In 2023, Riley had slightly better stats.  Hitting consistently but not so much for power.  He again came in 2nd for his slash line which trailed Kerry Carpenter’s.

In the minors, the former regime had him pegged as a CF, where he was a negative defender in Detroit for both years.  He only had the benefit of the new player development system for a couple months before being promoted to Detroit.  It was only after his first 2 years in CF (and on the IL) that the numbers told the Tigers his talents were better suited to a corner slot. 

We do know that once he reached Detroit, the Tigers continued to work with him on improving a variety of his skills.

But now in 2024, Greene has broken away and his trajectory shows promise of solid continued production going forward. 

The Tigers moved him to LF where he is now a plus-defender. He is currently the Tigers’ top fielder with a +7 DRS.

But it’s his hitting that everyone is noticing.  His HR total so far has now exceeded what he did in the entire 2022 year.  His RBI total for 1 month is now half of what he did in the entire 2023 year.

You just have to look at the 2 HRs in 1 game on Tuesday, followed by another 1 on Wednesday.  His slash line is better and he’s 1 of the 3 top hitters on the roster currently, joining Carpenter and Canha.

Greene recently just moved into MLB’s top 100 players, sitting at #81.  It’s within possibility that he’ll continue to move up that list this year, if he hasn’t already given his performance this week.

But a recent analysis points to Greene taking the jump that the best ballplayers make.  They named him to the top 10 best and most improved hitters this season.

They compared his barrel rates which predict future power better than any other stats.  He has added one of the highest number of barrels to his hitting.

It was also noted that Riley:

– reduced his whiff, strikeout and chase rates by one of the largest margins in MLB

– reduced his ground ball rate

– increased his walk and fly ball rates substantially

– is hitting every type of pitch and making contact on both sides of the strike zone

– significantly improved his defensive range

Those analysts point to natural improvement combined with a player “coming into his own.”  They are calling it his “break out year.”

And now, there is more than 1 analyst saying he is looking like an All-Star.

Greene’s significant improvement supports the fact that players generally don’t come into their own until approximately the 3rd year.

Now let’s turn to Spencer Torkelson who was drafted a year after Greene yet got promoted to Detroit before Riley.

He never had the benefit of working with the new player development department.  In fact, even though his amateur career was as a 1Ber, the former Front Office tried to turn him into a 3Ber.  He lost a number of months working on his fielding before they decided to return him to his original position.

And we all know he was promoted to Detroit for reasons that primarily weren’t based upon his skill levels.  As he advanced through the minors, his offensive stats kept going down. Not a reason to show that a player is ready to hit MLB pitching. 

Spencer may just be one of those players I mentioned who could end up falling through the cracks.  Getting all of his minor league development via the old inferior system combined with poor Front Office decisions about how to design his career.

We cut him some slack for the bad decisions made by others but now it’s his 3rd year at the MLB level.  We should be seeing something more positive by now.

Tork has more experience in MLB than Greene, yet you’d be hard-pressed to say he’s improved as a player.

In fact, many of the stats associated with both his hitting and fielding say he’s regressed so far this year.

Despite months of working with Joey Cora and Alan Trammell (and participating in month-long coaching sessions over the winter), his defense has not come around.  Especially disconcerting for what is baseball’s easiest position to play. 

In 2023, he ranked last in MLB for 1Bers with -11 DRS.  So far after 1 month, he’s still last with a -5 DRS and technically on a pace to pass last year’s stat.  In the month of April, he was benched twice for committing errors that cost the Tigers at least 1 game.

Analysts describe his overall play as “puzzling” and don’t believe there is an easy fix given all the attention coaches have given him.  No one can figure out what is going on and they refer to his play as being a “mystery”.

He put up some great HR and RBI numbers last year but has yet to hit a single HR this season and remains the only regular player on the roster not to have one.  What is interesting is that he has become a doubles, not HR, hitter this year.

He has also been struggling to stay above .200 in BA.  Last year, he had significant issues with hitting until August when he finally took off.  And we’re seeing that pattern again so far this season.

Was his best year of 2023 an outlier?  Did developing under the old and ineffective player development system set him back significantly?  Is the pressure to improve, esp. in defense, weighing negatively upon his play?

Unlike Greene, we’re not seeing Tork have a break out year.  Far from it.  And that’s concerning given that it’s his third year at the MLB level.

How patient will the Tigers be?  What will happen if it takes Spencer most of the season to really start producing?

How will his pattern impact the dire need for the Tigers to add offense in this roster?

Tork’s story certainly isn’t yet written.  But there is a rough draft and it still needs a lot of editing.

In the meantime, during this season, let us enjoy the promise of 1 player, praise the advancement of another and pray for another’s breakout year.

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