FIVE FOR FRIDAY

/ totallytigersblog

by Holly Horning

There seems to be some debate about how good the Detroit Tigers really are this year and how far they can go.

Some point to the much better start this season and current record that shows the team playing above .500.  Others claim the improvement seen at the end of last year is proof of better play.

On the other end, some say the AL Central standings are misleading.  Others use offensive stats to show that this team is still a work in progress.

So what is the best way to evaluate the Tigers’ performance and chances for a higher finish to the 2024 season?

It all has to do with stats and where they rank in MLB that will give us a better and more accurate way to evaluate.  This team has to be compared with the other 29 franchises (or at the very least, the other 4 teams in the AL Central) in order to put a proper context to their play.

Here are the top 5 rankings fans need to watch throughout the year………

1. OPS PLUS – It stands for On-Base Plus Slugging and takes into account every time a player gets on base, adds in his slugging percentage and adjusts it to the rest of MLB players for comparison purposes.  It also factors in every ballpark a hitter plays in.  In team rankings, the Tigers sit at #26 just below the Twins and ahead of the White Sox.

2. RUN DIFFERENTIAL – It is determined by subtracting the number of runs given up by the team from the number of runs a team scores.  For the first time in years, the Tigers so far are scoring more runs than they give up.  They currently sit at #16 with a +7 run differential.

3. TEAM ERA AND WHIP – Combining these 2 stats gives a better picture of how many runs a team’s pitchers are giving up.  The lower the ERA, the fewer runs allowed but the lower the WHIP indicates just how many or how few runners are getting on base.  The Tigers’ ERA ranks #3.  Their WHIP sits at #2.

4. TEAM WAR – WAR is a stat that measures all facets of a player’s skills and translates that sum into how many more wins that player provides in comparison to the average replacement player in MLB for that same position.  The Tigers’ team WAR is just under 26 which loosely translates to almost every player being worth just 1 more win apiece.  They sit at #23 in MLB.

5. TOP 100 PLAYERS – The most winning teams in MLB and those who go far in the playoffs have at least 5 players apiece in the top 100.  In the AL Central, the Guardians have 4, the Royals with 1, the Twins have 2 and the White Sox have 2.  The Tigers just recently made the list with 1 – Riley Greene.  KC, Cleveland and Chicago have theirs in the top 25.  Greene is currently sitting at #81.

Which one of these stats do you believe will change the most this year?

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12 thoughts on “FIVE FOR FRIDAY”

  1. The stats show we cannot hit but that when we do we usually win because of our superior pitching. If the pitchers stay healthy, and we continue getting some timely hits and gifts from other teams defensively, we can hang around. I still don’t think we’ll be buyers at the deadline either way, because Harris knows we’re not good enough yet.

    Liked by 8 people

    • We aren’t good enough yet, indeed. An opportunity could present itself at the deadline, however, and Greenburg should be prepared to pounce.

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  2. I’m absolutely most excited about the run differential and how it’s a direct reflection of how the team is playing. I’ve waited patiently for this number to be green and not red. It will grow as the offense and the pitching synergize and are supported by a solid defense where all give all to win today’s game.

    Liked by 6 people

  5. This early into the seasons, these stats are not at all reflective of the team. Maybe by mid-July it will. Also, if you seriously want to use these stats, then you also have to factor in the opponents W-L record because the stats may be inflated due to playing poor or slumping teams like Houston, Chi-Sox, Tampa, Miami, or Colorado?

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    • Hi, Robert – These are the stats that all Front Offices use and they are the main factors in creating a team’s win-loss record. Most importantly, the stats are reflective of how well all 30 teams do when compared to a single team so there is no issue of stats being inflated or misleading. At the end of each year, you will find that all the teams that rank among the highest in every one of these 5 stats are the ones who go deepest into the playoffs. – Holly

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  6. The stat that will change the most this year will be the last one—top 100 players. Kerry Carpenter, Jason Foley, and Tarik Skubal could be in that mix later in the year. Maybe even Casey Mize as well.   

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  7. So how do they calculate the top 100 MLB players? Do they use these same types of stats or is it an opinion based on the eye test? I see some of the sites still list him as a centerfielder so how good is their analysis and information.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Hi, Steve – Great question! There are a lot of people who put out these lists. Many of them do it to gain readership and raise their profile. But much of what these individuals write is based upon their opinions. However, there are official sites that do this for a living and they use 30+ stats covering every skill set to rank each player by comparing them to all the other top players in order to get their ranking slot. Those are the only sites I use and which are also used by the Front Offices. – Holly

      Liked by 5 people

      • Holly, why you’re not in the Tiger’s front office is beyond me. If I was Chris Ilitch I’d find a place for you. I know you’re great at your “day job” but I can also see where your heart is.

        Liked by 2 people

        • Bless you, McWatt. I think I was among the very first to study sports (baseball) economics in college at the only college offering it. My professor went on to define the study and ended up advising most MLB teams along with other sports and the Olympics. At the time I graduated, no teams were hiring for that kind of position, least of all hiring women. I’m still waiting for Chris’ phone call and he should know that all it would take for me to come work there would be an unlimited credit card at Neiman Marcus. – Holly

          Liked by 6 people

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