BUYER BEWARE

by Holly Horning

Some of the biggest news during spring training this year did not revolve around teams or players.  Rather, it was about all the top free agents who still did not have contracts. 

Even a pitcher who just won the Cy Young Award.

Scott Boras was probably the biggest loser as the top 5 remaining free agents were all his.  And in the end, most of them got 1-2 contracts at app. $20 mill a pop instead of the 6+ year deal worth $150+ mill.

Sure, part of it was that Boras was overvaluing his clients.  But another factor is that baseball teams have now realized that few, if any, of these long-term expensive deals ever really work out.

They’re signing players for their past performances and for a period where these free agents are going to end up on the wrong side of 30 in the near future.

Some foolishly believed that loading the roster with multiple top free agents would allow them to buy a championship.  Others because their farm systems weren’t producing what they needed.

Others because their marketing research said it would help fill the stands.

But today?  Not so much.  Most teams have learned their lessons.  Many are no longer biting and if they are, they’re signing players for half the years and half the expected salary.

For most, it’s not worth the ugly ending.  Ageing players who end up making the biggest chunk of team payroll and rarely performing at an acceptable level. 

Contracts that are albatrosses as teams wait until the money still owed is less eye-popping for them in order to release that player.  Contracts that block other talent from being promoted and end up weighing the entire team down.

Some of those contracts accelerating the demise of a team’s performance because no other organization wants to trade for their players.

That’s what happened to the Tigers.  When that window closed for them, the team spent 3 years selling off – er, actually more like giving away – their expensive players.  Those contracts acted as cement shoes in the standings.

What all those free agent signings also did was to put the Tigers in the red for over a decade, despite pulling in 3 million fans each year.

It was really ugly.  And to fans, it felt like 30 years of hell, not 3.

Back under Dave Dombrowksi, and then Al Avila, the Tigers were the poster child for taking on these monstrous long-term expensive contracts.  And not a single one had a happy ending.

We can somewhat excuse the contract and extension to Miguel Cabrera because he was such a special talent for a number of years.  But the last 3 years of his contract were rough, esp. with the growing chorus of boo birds and watching him struggle at the plate and trying to run the bases.

Justin Verlander’s contract was probably the best one out of all but the Tigers had to pay the Astros millions (and a prospect, too) to take him and his contract off their hands.

The Tigers got somewhat lucky by getting the Rangers to take Prince Fielder and part of his 9-year $214 mill contract.  But again, the Tigers were paying on it for years afterwards.  For 2 years of his time with the Tigers, Detroit ended up paying a grand total of $76 mill for the honor.

There was the Anibal Sanchez contract back in 2013 for 5 years and $85 mill.  He had 1 good year with Detroit.

Victor Martinez was extended in 2015 for 4 years at $68 million.  Unfortunately, his knees weren’t included in the contract.

And who can forget what many deemed was the worst contract of all?

Jordan Zimmermann.  Five years at $110 mill.  One winning year but only half a season.  A .379 winning percentage.  A 5.63 ERA.

Unfortunately, there is still 1 contract left from the previous regime.

Javier Baez with 6 years and $140 mill.  Four long years left.

And no heir to the shortstop position in sight so here he stays.

As we saw during Sunday’s game, the situation has become untenable to the fans – and I believe to Baez as well.

This is the catch when a player signs such a big contract.  There is an assumption that you will perform.  There is an assumption that you will help your team win games. Regularly.

And when that doesn’t happen, as we saw in every example of Tiger players listed above, unhappy situations occur.

Halfway through Sunday’s game, Baez was getting dangerously close to a batting average near .100.  Then he hit a home rum.  As he started his HR trot, he glared into the stands at Comerica and cupped his hand to his ear.  A sign that he wasn’t getting the vocal support from fans that he wanted.

And he could be seen speaking unknown words to the crowd as he made his gesture.

He was also a little angry, too.  Some of it deservedly so if he was being inappropriately heckled.  But for fans who have put up with his rally-killing plate appearances for over 2 years now, they are justified in showing their unhappiness as long as it doesn’t cross the line.

And this is what a lot of free agents don’t fully realize when they sign those gigantic contracts.  There’s a price to pay if you don’t live up to the expectations.

Teams need to be aware of what they are buying.  But so do the free agents. Buyer beware.

Javy is now very uncomfortable in his role.  You see it in his mocking of the fans.  You see it at the plate.

He no longer seems “in the moment” when he comes up to bat.  He appears disconnected.  Did you see him almost robotically swing at pitches so far off the plate and not show a single hint of emotion? Strikeouts that completely killed rallies and were partially responsible for why the Tigers lost 2 games recently.

Understandably so, Baez must be under a great deal of pressure.  Maybe even too much that is now hindering his concentration and making it difficult to impossible for him to focus at the plate.

Sadly, it’s likely that this will get even uglier.

It’s just too bad that Avila didn’t learn any lessons about big free agent signings esp. since he was part of the free agent build up that resulted in only 1 World Series game win, the closing window and trying to sell off all those free agents – and getting peanuts in return instead.

It was also a significant factor in why he was fired.

In contrast, it’s unlikely that Scott Harris will make these mistakes.

So far, he’s offered contracts that are conservative in nature but loaded them with incentives for performance.  If the player doesn’t meet certain goals, he receives the salary base.  But if he performs above expectations, there are additional monetary rewards.

But the best thing he’s done is to sign Colt Keith to a 6-year contract worth $28.5 mill.  The Tigers can add 3 option years and the contract can max out at 9 years and $82 mill.

Keith is 22 years old and could be under team control until he’s 31.

Isn’t this the kind of contract you’d prefer the Tigers to give out?  Especially when you don’t have to worry about a player walking during his prime years.

Keith won’t be the only one who gets offered a contract like this.  Expect the Tigers to extend similar offers to more top prospects.

Just don’t expect the Tigers to return to that failed plan of signing free agents to long, expensive contracts that are based upon what they did in previous years.

That ship has sailed.  Finally. 

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