BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE

by Holly Horning

Remember all those times when Scott Harris said that the young kids would play and not be blocked?

Well, it seems there are exceptions.

Javier Baez was named the starting shortstop for the 2024 season.  $98 mill reasons why.

Ryan Kreidler was sent down to Toledo.  And he made it very clear that he was upset. “To be honest, I think I should’ve made the team.”

He.was.right.

The explanation offered to him was pinned on how the roster was constructed, as I predicted would happen in last week’s 2-part blog.  Often, it’s not the best people who made the roster as certain conditions may favor someone else.  It’s not about a single puzzle piece.  It’s about how that piece fits into the rest of the puzzle.

Defensively, Kreidler played better than Baez this spring training.  In his last season of playing, he was worth a +4 DRS.

Offensively, there’s just no contest.  Their stats:

Baez:      .086/.105/.086/.191     ( 7 for 49, almost 50% SO rate)

Kreidler:  .321/.472/.536/1.008   (high walk rate, leader in SB)

Ryan was a 4th round draft pick but had only partial seasons in both 2022 and 2023 due to hand surgery and then core muscle surgery.  Keeping him healthy going forward has to be a concern for the Tigers.

And those 2 incomplete years served to push him under the radar to some extent.  Scott Harris and A. J. Hinch haven’t had enough time to really watch him over the past 2 years, especially when the PoBO came on board while he was on the IL.

But here’s the deal.  The only things keeping Javier Baez in the lineup is that he remains a plus defender, a much-needed veteran presence (esp. in the infield) and his contract that goes another 4 years. 

But things are already ugly and only going to get worse over time.  Baez is 31 now and will be 35 by the conclusion of his deal.

Kreidler is 26.

Everyone knows that Ryan earned the starting SS job.

Another major reason why Baez remains on the roster despite all the evidence is that no team in baseball history has ever cut a player owed as much as Baez.  Yes, it’s a sunk cost but every team in this situation waits until the situation becomes absolutely hopeless before cutting players with millions of dollars remaining on their contracts.

Baez is owed $98 mill.  The top player cut with remaining salary remains to be Chris Davis, who had $72 mill left before being given his termination papers.  Ken Griffey, Jr. comes in 2nd with $56 mill.

In 2023, the 13 players cut and still owed salary amounted to a grand total of $35 mill for that year.

Now you see why that $98 mill is such an albatross.  But maybe after the 2024 season, the remaining $73 mill may be more palatable.

But there remains a problem with an increasingly unhappy player who will be in Toledo this year.  And the longer he is there, the more unhappy he will be.

And it may get to the point where Ryan Kreidler may ask the Tigers to trade him.

The problem is that the Tigers do not have anyone else in the system who is even remotely close to taking over the SS position.  They are not going to trade a valuable shortstop with no other options in the pipeline available. 

They’re also not going to go all in on Baez as their only candidate for the next 4 years.

Which is why something will change this year.

First, Javy needs to continue to be a plus defender.  He also has to hit better than he did last year.  He cannot continue to be an automatic out. Anything less will force some change.

But his most important role, esp. early in the season, will be to mentor and help train Colt Keith.  Baez is the only up-the-middle veteran and only 1 of 2 in the infield with enough experience to help guide the others.

The Tigers are desperate for offense and Baez is most likely to be a speed bump in their plans.  If the team starts losing games because they can’t score, there may be changes sooner rather than later.

The Tigers can’t afford to drop in the win-loss column again so early in the season.

But if they manage to keep their heads above water, expect to see Javy playing regularly.  Not because he’s crucial to the lineup but because working with Keith is a priority.

You simply can’t have 2 rookie players up the middle in the infield. Three if you count Parker Meadows in CF.

Potentially, Kreidler sees Detroit sooner rather than later and it will be because of someone going on the IL or struggling and getting sent down.  If the Tigers are smart, they bring him up and start playing him regularly. Maybe not starting games but as a regular late-inning replacement at SS, esp. if the Tigers are behind.

Scott Harris is a smart man.  He knows that both he and Kreidler are between a rock and a hard place.  He’s not going to keep Baez in a role that impedes the team and throws the Front Office goals down the drain.  He’s not going to allow 1 man to throw this train off the tracks.

He’ll do it diplomatically.  He’ll do it gradually. He’ll squeeze all the juice out of keeping Baez in the lineup. We should see Baez playing less if he continues to flail at the plate. Hinch benched him last year and he’ll do it again.

But he simply cannot allow the best man to sit in Toledo all season.

Teams that want to win don’t end up hanging onto pieces that prevent them from getting there.

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