IT’S NOT THAT SIMPLE – Part 1.

by Holly Horning

The Detroit Tigers are gradually winnowing down their spring training roster with only 10 more days to go.

Scott Harris has emphasized that the young players won’t be blocked, indicating that any veterans acquired are here for the short-term and only because there are no prospects ready to assume responsibility for a positional hole.

That was said to let fans know that the Tigers aren’t going to go out and sign a veteran free agent as a stop-gap measure which will further delay the development of the entire team.  It’s not going to get them to the competitive level they seek and would be seen as a knee-jerk and impatient reaction.  Not to mention a deviation from the overall plan and strategy.

What he’s not telling you is that the creation of a roster in which only the most worthy will earn a spot is not that simple.  It’s not a black and white process.

There are a number of factors involved that will push certain players ahead of others in whether they make the roster or not.  Some that players can control.  Others that they cannot.

What Harris (and Greenberg) must do is to solve a puzzle in which all the pieces fit together the best they can.  It is the equivalent of successfully putting together a Rubik’s Cube.

So many moving pieces to consider that we cannot cover them all in 1 blog.  This list of factors is going take several blogs.

To simplify the issues at stake, we’ll divide them into 2 categories: contractual obligations and personal skill sets.  We’ll address the former today.

Let’s start with the understanding that the best roster isn’t always the one that has the strongest talent in it.  At least not in the beginning.

Teams are often forced to play certain players due to obligations they either made or inherited.

The first, obviously, is the guaranteed contract.  And the larger and longer it is, the more likely that player will make the roster.

Obviously the poster child for this is Javier Baez who has 4 more years and $98 mill left in his.  His spring training has been so bad that it’s garnered national attention.  There are 98 million reasons why he will make the Opening Day roster no matter how poorly he performs at the plate. 

His defensive skills will keep him on it.  Whether he stays on the roster, should his downward spiral continue, is another topic best left for later this season.

Conversely, the player with the most team-friendly contract has a slight advantage over another player should they perform equally well in making the roster.

Next, you’ve got the players with a certain number of service years under their belts.  There are fewer of them now in Detroit.

Of particular note are those who have 5 or more years of MLB experience.  They have now earned the right to refuse being sent down to the minors.  Even if they are playing horribly and their manager wants to send them down to AAA to brush up on their skills, they can refuse to go.

The team then has to keep them on the roster – or put them on waivers for their unconditional release.  We all saw how Spencer Turnbull and the Tigers battled most of last year over him undeservedly trying to leverage this right.

He’s being turned into a reliever with his new team but we all know that if he performs poorly, he will refuse to go down to AAA to sort things out because it would stop the service time clock and delay his free agency.

Bullet dodged by the Tigers. He’s now Dave Dombrowski’s problem.

Currently, there are 8 Tigers who have that 5-year benefit.  The most important of them are Javier Baez, Carson Kelly and Gio Urshela.

On the opposite end of the spectrum are players riding the cusp of being promoted from the minors to the majors.  They start earning service time (which leads to salary increase via arbitration after 3 years and eventually free agency) if they have been on the roster for 172 days out of a 187-day season.

This is why most teams wait at least 15 days before promoting prospects to their MLB roster.  Why allow your player to start earning service time – and eventually free agency – as soon as possible?  If you simply wait 2 weeks, they remain under team control for an additional year.

In the Tigers’ case, it would be foolish to name a prospect like Jackson Jobe or Justice Bigbie to the Opening Day roster.  You’d simply lose them a year early and potentially right around the time you’re trying to clinch a division title or more.

Ironically, what hasn’t been discussed is the strategy the Tigers used with Colt Keith. By signing him to an extended contract, they have bypassed this entire issue. His service time doesn’t matter anymore. The Tigers can put him on the Opening Day roster now and not lose him a year early.

Putting any other young prospects on the roster at the beginning of the year will only start the closure of that contention window a year earlier.

The Tigers are not yet in a position where adding a top prospect will make a huge difference in how they perform this year.  They aren’t even being seen as an average competitive team. 

In this case, they are wisely looking ahead and playing the long game. The one is which it is about where you end up eventually that is most important.

Finally, there is the long-overlooked issue of options.

Once a prospect makes the 40-man roster, he is given 3 options which allows the team to send him back down to the minors.  He remains on the 40-man roster and is protected.  But if there are no options left and the organization wants to send him down, they have to put him through waivers first where another team can grab him. 

In the Tigers case, this could prove to be a disadvantage.  They are still trying to create depth in the system and the loss of a player, even if his performance is not ideal, could create problems.

Going into the 2024 season, there are 3 players who are out of options:  Miguel Diaz, Zach McKinstry and Joey Wentz.  To send them down means they would have to pass through waivers first and potentially lose them to other teams.

And the Tigers will probably not want to do that just yet.  They may want to see the results of their off-season work first. It’s been reported that their routines were significantly overhauled by the coaches.

Diaz and Wentz are pitchers and as you know, you can never have enough of them.  They are more likely to make the Opening Day roster than another reliever who has options left.  At some point, Harris, Greenberg and Hinch may not like what they see and then it will make more sense to send them down, exposing them to waivers as a result.

As for McKinstry, he’s had a very solid spring training.  Considered a super utility player, he’s got the experience most needed – 2B and 3B.  And surprising defensive strength in RF which A. J. Hinch announced he will also play in 2024.

But the Tigers can only add 4 bench players so there is going to be a squeeze as to which ones earn roster spots.  McKinstry has the advantage there due to his lack of remaining options.

Who will it impact?  Possibly Akil Baddoo.  But also don’t be surprised if it’s Ryan Kreidler who starts the year in Toledo despite his outstanding performance at SS and at the plate this spring.

And it won’t have anything to do with how much he deserves a roster spot.  It may simply be due to timing and the surrounding factors.

I can see the Tigers giving Baez every opportunity to turn things around.  But if he doesn’t, then calling up Kreidler to turn up the heat a little may serve as additional motivation. And if things really go south, initially platooning and then taking over the SS position.

Giving Kreidler a little extra time to adjust may also be better for him.  He missed most of last year due to 2 injuries/surgeries.  This would be his first year back and the Tigers may decide that easing him back into daily play down in Toledo is the safest option in the beginning.

Harris has shown that the Tigers’ roster remains fluid throughout the year.  In his first season, that roster was constantly being tweaked.  When someone didn’t work out, this Front Office moved on and called up another option or claimed someone from the waiver wire.

And I believe he will continue to practice this strategy.  One in which players with the most significant contractual obligations are given the first chance to succeed.  And when they can’t – or should they get injured – the next most logical replacement gets called up.

Which is why I don’t put a ton of stock in who makes the Opening Day roster.  And neither does Hinch who tells players when they get sent down that it’s most likely a short-term move and that he’ll see them again soon.

Some of the top performers this spring will get sent down but only because the test-drives of other players are not yet complete.  Don’t be surprised if Keston Hiura, Justyn-Henry Malloy or a variety of bench players like Kreidler don’t make that Opening Day roster despite their solid ST play.

We’ll probably be seeing them in Detroit sooner rather than later.  And it may only take a player having to go on the IL in order for them to make that trip north.

(On Thursday, we’ll address the reasons involving non-contractual factors (personal skill sets, etc.) that help determine the Opening Day roster.  Please save your thoughts on those topics for then.)

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