THE MAGIC IS GONE

by Holly Horning

While Detroit Tigers PoBO, Scott Harris, tries to rebuild this team, he’s also attempting to mitigate the bad roster decisions made by his predecessor.

Some of them have been easier to solve than others.

In the case of Javier Baez, it’s going to be very challenging.

A free agent signed by Al Avila and a move made out of desperation.  Al barely drafted positional players and the farm system therefore had no solutions.

Avila signed a player with MLB’s 2nd worst plate discipline and stats that were trending downward.  All to a 6-year $140 mill contract that includes a 10-team no-trade clause and opt-out after this year.

And now Harris – and Hinch – have a 4-year problem remaining on their hands.

How bad has it gotten?

A national article on how no player in recent history has fallen as far and as fast in performance than Baez.  Even his former teammates in Chicago are shocked.

He is on track to produce career lows in HRs, RBIs, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS+.  And since his grandfather’s passing, he been hitting .163.  His SOs since then are now over 40% of his at-bats.

He can no longer hit fastballs and as a result, doesn’t make the lineup card whenever there is a pitcher known for throwing them.

When he does make the lineup, he’s now batting in the #7-#8 spots.

And the Tigers still owe him $98 mill.  His salary goes up to $25 mill next year.

They had a tough time with him last year.  Some said that since it was his first year, his performance was not unexpected because it was his first time playing in the AL.  But it’s only gotten worse.

Many of us were excited at first to get Baez.  A stellar defender known as “El Mago” – the Magician.  He was fun to watch both in the field and at the plate (most of the time) when he was with the Cubs.

None of that transferred over to Detroit. 

And you can’t help but notice that he has never looked happy playing for this team. He often comes across as unsmiling, aloof and detached.

A. J.Hinch saw it last year which is why he went down to Baez’s home in the off-season to spend a week with him.  To learn what makes him tick and to bond.

It seemed to help.  Briefly.

This year he’s been distracted and benched for making mistakes. And he came back better.  Briefly.

But now, if you watch him, it appears that he’s put up a wall between himself and the rest of the baseball world.

And when this season ends, we will see just how different Scott Harris’ approach may be.

If the Tigers are rebuilding and trying to become competitive, they cannot afford to allow him to linger on the roster no matter how much money Detroit owes him.  Four years is a very long time. And we saw just how bad it can get when Jordan Zimmermann was on the roster.

As Yogi would say, “It’s deja-vu all over again.”

I know the Tigers don’t want to go there again.  We’ve already seen that Harris makes decisions much more quickly.

Baez has an opt-out clause after this year which most say he will not use.  He could never get a better contract, especially after this year.

Unless…..

…he values the fit and happiness over 4 long years of simply raking in a paycheck and stuck in a miserable situation.

He just may be that player who will make a decision based more upon happiness than money.

After all, he did leave the Cubs despite contract extension offers and was very clearly unhappy in his brief time in NY.

Maybe he wants to leave Detroit.

And maybe the Tigers are facilitating a situation in which he may be “inspired” to opt out.

The past 2 weeks have been very telling.

First, the sudden drop in playing time.  Although his grandfather’s funeral wasn’t for another week, Javy didn’t play much of the week before.  Then he left for home to be with his family, playing very little during those 2 weeks.

Upon his return, there were suddenly days at a stretch in which he didn’t play.  Hinch told reporters that it was a sore arm, then it was fatique, then the flu.

And now A. J. is publicly stating that Baez’ playing time will be limited for the rest of the year in order to give the younger players some experience.  He even went as far to say that Baez would have 2 days off, play 1 day and then get more time off.

Hinch added that it’s not just Javy, but it applies to the rest of the roster.  But when you have to come out and make a noticeable statement that way, there some smoke starting to show.  Everyone knows there are concerns with Javy.

A rumor only confirmed when you have multiple players all trying out at SS while Javy sits on the bench.

Baez sees it, too.  He’s now cut himself off from the media, often disappearing from the clubhouse.

Something is brewing.

It could be a case of tough love.  With Scott Harris in charge now, the Tigers have been pulling the trigger sooner on issues than the previous Front Office did.

The Tigers could be trying to motivate Javy into coming around via a little jolt of realism.

Or they could be trying to send a signal.  A signal that maybe things will change next year with less playing time and more competition for the SS position.

Maybe with the intention of planting a seed.  A seed that involves opting out.

One of the tricks you learn in business (or in business school by Harris) is that sometimes the best and easiest way of removing an employee is to create conditions in which they want to remove themselves.

And maybe this is the Tigers way of trying to create other options – and outcomes.

It’s highly unlikely they will simply cut him a $98 mill gift card and send him on his way.

Could the Tigers potentially trade one bad player for another?  It doesn’t sound very viable. It’s only transferring, not eliminating, the problem.

Could they package Baez, pay a large chunk of his salary and throw in a good prospect?  Not very likely, esp. since the Tigers are trying to re-stock their farm system and create a sustainable franchise.  That option is something Al Avila would have done.

What is probably most likely is for Baez to return next year but see less playing time.  To platoon at SS with a young prospect and help teach him the ropes.  Then if everything goes well, gradually eased out sometime after the All-Star break.

The Tigers aren’t going to sit on their hands for 4 years, waiting for this contract to expire.  Or to suddenly stop addressing their lack of offense that is the root cause of their lack of winning.

Waiting 4 years to get the money off the books will cost the team dearly.  While they wait, all the younger players like Torkelson, Green, Carpenter et all will creep closer to free agency.  Some of them with Scott Boras as their agent.  And we know what that means.

Waiting for something to disappear rather than to address it, is something the previous regime would have done.  They had no sense of urgency and never pulled the trigger on situations that needed to change.  As a result, we saw that window close with every year.

I think Harris has a plan A to inspire change at the end of this year whether it be via motivation or painting a picture of the future.  And if that doesn’t work out, he’ll most likely have a plan B.

We just don’t know how soon it will happen or whether it will be gradual or sudden.

All we really know is that the magic is gone and it doesn’t look like it will be coming back.

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