TO JAVY AND JAVY NOT

by Holly Horning

He’s played the game for over 11 years and with every franchise there have been lightning rod moments including with the Cubs and the Mets. 

Should we be surprised that it’s happened now in Detroit?

In a game last week, Javy Baez hit a long fly ball to left field and didn’t run hard out of the box until he saw that he was about to be cut down at 2B.  He wasn’t keeping track of outs and on the next hit, he jogged around third base, thinking there were 2 outs and got doubled off.  There was only 1 out.

Manager A. J. Hinch had the most unbelievable look on his face.  You just knew he was going to put his foot down.  And as a result, Baez was benched.

It’s not the first time a manager has benched him.

He comes with a reputation for being “elsewhere” and “scattered.”  That habit was not magically going to disappear once he signed with the Tigers.

Baez is the last of the questionable/bad Avila signings  Born from rejection and the Tigers’ horrible drafting/player development systems.

We knew that A. J. Hinch wanted his former player Carlos Correa.  An infamous 3-hour lunch between the 2 and an offer made shortly thereafter.  But Correa wanted record money and turned them down.  (You may remember that several teams ended up declining their contract offers to him based upon his physical.  Today, he’s not playing because those infamous back problems are reoccurring.  He went on to sign a contract for less money than what the Tigers offered him.)

The Tigers signed Baez shortly thereafter and according to reports, it was rushed because the Tigers wanted to sign a SS before the CBA lockout.

But it all could have been avoided if Avila and his Front Office hadn’t spent years drafting a majority of pitchers and not giving positional players priority.  As a result, they had no viable SSs in the system and had to go outside to find one. 

They could have drafted Marcelo Mayer back in 2021 but they selected Jackson Jobe who is now on the IL with spinal inflammation for 3-6 months.  Mayer is ranked #10 out of MLB’s top 100 prospects. 

While the Tigers would have still needed a SS if they acquired Mayer, they wouldn’t have had to sign a free agent for $140 mill and 6 years.  They could have instead found someone to hold the slot for a couple years until Mayer was ready.  He is expected to make his MLB debut later this year.

This helps explain why the Tigers ended up with Baez despite his reputation and ranking as baseball’s #1 player with worst plate discipline. Baez swings at almost 60% of all pitches outside the strike zone.

But what is truly disconcerting is the former GM’s comments about how Baez would be coming in as the veteran leader of the team.

Say what?

Team leaders don’t have their heads elsewhere.  They see what is going on.  They pay attention. They set the tone in the clubhouse.  They don’t say that their “minds are scattered” as Baez said last week or that he has felt “lost” trying to recover his swing.

You see it when he plays and interacts.  Baez has a wall up.  He’s often described as having “loner” tendencies.  We all saw it last year.  We’re seeing it again this year.  A veteran player isn’t likely to change much in his habits.

A. J. Hinch hinted at this last year.  He said the team had a hard time finding out the best way to communicate with and motivate Javy.  Which is why Hinch went down to Puerto Rico over the winter to spend some quality time with Baez.  To learn how he ticks.

It’s also very helpful that A. J. majored in psychology.

In an era where managers no longer bench players, Hinch played it perfectly.  A talk with Baez in the tunnel during that game and away from prying eyes.  A short statement stating the reason but focusing it on the whole team, not just one player.  Protecting Javy’s ego and then quickly moving on and changing the subject.  Reinstating him the very next day in order to get the incident out of the headlines.

And it appears the message was received.  After having only 4 hits (all singles) and 11 SOs in his first 40 at-bats for a .100 BA, Baez went on to go 4-for-8 with two runs, two doubles and four RBIs, plus two walks in his next 2 games.  He appeared to be tuned in.

However, even after that spurt, he’s hitting only .184 and has the worst OPS of any starting players on the roster.

But how long will this last?  David Ross did the same thing as Hinch and it produced a short-term improvement.  But Javy is Javy and there is a pattern of him tuning out throughout the season.

The 2023 season is just over 2 weeks old and already there are problems.  Those 11 games in which he played are the worst of his career:  0 balls hit on the barrel of the bat, 62.5% ground-ball rate, 9.4% line-drive rate, 4.2-degree launch angle, 86.1 mph average exit velocity and 28.1% hard-hit rate. His wRC+ (measures hitting performance) is -28.  You may not want to embrace or understand these analytics but the bottom line is that every single one of them reinforces the premise that there are some serious issues with Baez’s offense.

Another way to summarize those stats is to understand that Javy isn’t hitting the ball in the air nor is he hitting it hard.  And he has an inconsistent hitting approach that includes abandoning the hitting strategy once he arrives at the plate.  It’s followed him for over 11 years now – from team to team, from coach to coach.

And now Baez has become Scott Harris’ project to solve.  He’s got 5 long years in which to do it.

Isn’t it ironic that MLB’s worst player at plate discipline meets the PoBO who has controlling the strike zone as the team’s top priority?

The Baez contract has the potential of continuing to drag this team down.  Fans were relieved when Jordan Zimmermann’s fell off the books.  Many are waiting for this last year of Miguel Cabrera at $32 mill (plus an $8 mill buy out) to expire. 

And now there’s potentially a new one to replace another bad expiring contract. Detroit has been hung up over 2 bad contracts now for 7 years. That run may be extended another 6.

Baez has 1 opt out (player decision) which is after this season.  He also has a partial no-trade clause which can block a trade to 10 teams.  Unless a miracle happens this year and he turns his hitting around, he’s here to stay through 2027.  The Tigers still owe him over $116 mill.

But how do you handle a player who will become your most expensive one after this year when your PoBO states that players who can’t control the strike zone will find themselves with less playing time or no longer on the roster? I very much doubt that any team would cut a player still owed over $100 mill.

That will be the biggest question going forward – and Scott Harris’ biggest project.

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