WIDE OPEN

by Holly Horning

From now until he officially assumes his new position, we’re going to keep discussing the issues, concerns and priorities that a new GM must address.  Today, let’s look at how he may handle the roster.  Such as it is.

For simplicity’s sake, we’re going to focus on the positional players only, not the pitchers.

In a number of ways, this team has regressed in its roster.  Injuries have certainly played a part but so have several prospects, highly touted, who couldn’t manage to stick in Detroit.  And then there’s the constant shuffling of the same players back and forth to Toledo.

More than half of the current members have significantly under-performed.  Some so much that we shouldn’t expect to see them in Detroit next year.

Chris Ilitch is expecting this team to improve at the MLB level which means that the new GM is going to have to be creative in trying to fix what is wrong.

Obviously, some of the repairs need to happen off the field, in the offices.  But if we’re addressing the actual players, there’s only so much the GM will be able to do.

Before we get into the options he has, let’s take a rough look at the roster ahead of next year.

CATCHER

The Tigers had hoped that Tucker Barnhart would be the solution and Avila even said he was looking to extend him when he was signed.  But that didn’t happen for obvious reasons.  He won’t be back next year.  Jake Rogers, recovering from Tommy John surgery, won’t make it back this year and it’s unlikely the Tigers will gamble on him returning to form by spring with so much time off.

No one right now is working harder than Eric Haase, who sees an opportunity to become the everyday catcher – or at least a full-time player.  The Tigers desperately need his bat and this will give him an edge.  But he may not have the defensive skills Hinch wants.

FIRST BASE

It’s the easiest position to fill yet the Tigers haven’t had a full-time one since the 60-day 2020 season, which for all intents and purposes doesn’t really count.  For 2+ years now, they are MLB’s only team not to have a full-time first baseman.

The Tigers won’t bring back Spencer Torkelson until they are confident he can perform at the plate.  It doesn’t look reassuring right now and another Opening Day debut is questionable.  He may need further seasoning in Toledo next year.

The other options?  Eric Haase for the reason stated above.  But has Harold Castro earned the right to play there full-time or will this position remain as a platoon?

SECOND BASE

After Barnhart, Jonathan Schoop has the worst offensive stats of all the regular position players.  It’s also the worst of his career.  He may have a great glove but his value right now is not worth the $7.5 mill he’ll be paid again next year. 

He also has the potential to opt out after this year which he may just do.  He recently fired Scott Boras and hired a new agent which tells us that he’s probably considering the options.  And potentially it may have to do with the rumors that the Tigers will try to trade him.

THIRD BASE

Jeimer Candelario has been very disappointing this year both with the glove and at the plate.  He’s hitting .194 (through Tuesday’s game) and headed for arbitration next year where raises are always given.  He’s currently making $5.8 mill and conceivably could be awarded $7 mill next year.  The Tigers are expected to non-tender him. 

Could Harold Castro inherit this position where he has played the second-most games?

SHORTSTOP

Despite leading the team in several offensive categories, Javy Baez has been disappointing so far this year considering the reasons for why he was signed and for that amount of money.  His salary goes up every year until 2026 and he has an opt out after next year.  Don’t expect him to leave unless he has an outstanding 2023 season.  His position is safe unless the Tigers can somehow manage to trade him. 

But then again, there is no clear and comfortable heir currently in the system.  Depending upon the other options at 2B and 3B for next year, the new GM and Hinch may move him to one of those positions.

LEFTFIELD

Austin Meadows continues to be plagued with health problems and it’s looking increasingly likely that he won’t return this year.  So who knows what will happen to him next year.  It’s hard to gauge a player who has only played a month’s worth of games this entire year.  The Tigers also can’t be confident that he will be able to play regularly given all of his ailments this year. 

Willi Castro is the only other option.  He has split his time evenly between LF and RF where he has played less than half a season because the team felt there were better options until recently.  Injuries, not necessarily talent, have pushed him there.

CENTERFIELD

It’s the only slam dunk of the entire roster.  Riley Greene.

RIGHTFIELD

Akil Baddoo and Daz Cameron continue to struggle.  Kerry Carpenter is untested so far and considered to be defensively challenged.  Again, it’s down to Victor Reyes and Willi Castro as the most likely choices but both have played less than half a season each despite being on the Tigers’ roster for multiple years.  Will they both platoon there?

Out of 8 positional slots, this is how the roster will look after this year:

Catcher – Opening

First Base – Probable opening

Second Base – 50/50 chance of an opening

Third Base – Opening

Left Field – Opening somewhat possible

Center Field – Filled

Right Field – Opening somewhat possible or platoon option

And if we want to include the DH position, that is really open, too.  Miguel Cabrera is currently playing only twice each week.  The Tigers simply can’t give away a precious roster spot for a player who will only bat in app. 8 games each month.  And then to have yet another DH to platoon with him.

That’s a whole lotta needs.  Only 1 out of 8 positions (or 1 out of 9 if we look at the entire lineup) that are confidently filled.

So what will this new GM be able to do?  What resources will he have?

In his speech, Ilitch insinuated that he wasn’t happy that he spent all that money ($243 mill on free agents alone) to get zero progress at the MLB level.  He’s not going to be so generous this off-season.  It’s going to be hard to get him to pry that wallet open again.

In fact, he may ask his GM to shed some of those contracts or cut some payroll.  Most of those contracts will be a tough sell to other teams. 

The GM will be limited in what he can spend until he proves his worth.  Ilitch isn’t going to write that huge check again until he is reassured about his GM’s skills.  Been there, done that.

What the GM may have to do is go after some budget-friendly free agents who are a step up from the current roster but not of the caliber that a more competitive team has.  Potentially a logical path as the Tigers may be forced to take a step back and reboot, undoing Avila’s damage as much as possible.

So where, then, are the other likely options to get new players?

Now that Kerry Carpenter has been promoted, are there any other prospects in Toledo who have a decent chance of sticking after being called up?  The pickings are rather slim right now.  Can the Tigers risk not filling a position from the outside and pinning all their hopes on a player from the farm system who may not last the entire season?

If we assume that money will be limited, as well as the quality of prospects, that leaves trades as the last possible pipeline of new players.

Al Avila failed miserably in almost every trade he made.  This new GM will need to have trading skills that would give Dave Dombrowski a run for his money.

Chris Ilitch, A. J. Hinch, Ryan Garko and the others involved will all have their shopping lists of what this new GM has to have.  But the levels of his creativity and trading acumen are going to determine whether the Tigers regress or reboot for the 2023 season.

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