FIVE FOR FRIDAY

/ totallytigersblog

by Holly Horning

Let’s continue the conversation we started yesterday about the Tigers’ draft system and the people involved.

We’ll start by comparing the draft picks between Dave Dombrowski and Al Avila.

Granted, there are some parameters we need to consider.  Dave was in charge of drafting for 14 years.  Avila?  Seven.  And since Al is the most recent GM, some of his choices have not had enough time to develop and establish a track record.  Therefore, we should take into consideration that Al’s success at drafting will be lower than Dave’s.

Each also share a number of the same advisors.  Dombrowski probably had Jim Leyland helping for his last 2 years as GM while Leyland has now spent 7 with Avila.  David Chadd, once in charge of the draft, is an Avila guy and described as Al’s “top lieutenant.”  Chadd was removed from being in charge of the draft several years ago. 

Dave Littlefield was also an Avila hire and involved in draft discussions until he was demoted.

Yet despite these variables, it is worth comparing the two.  Even with the differences, how much success can they claim from drafting?  How little?

Let’s start by listing each GM’s top 5 draft picks with the Tigers.

DAVE DOMBROWSKI

1. Justin Verlander

2. Andrew Miller

3. Corey Knebel

4. Curtis Granderson

5. Rick Porcello

We could also add in Nick Castellanos, Drew Smyly and Cameron Maybin.  There were quite a few who had distinguished or solid careers.

Especially notable is that Dombrowski had great success in every draft with the exception of 2012.

AL AVILA

1.Tarik Skubal

2.

3.

4.

5.

That’s it, folks.  Just one proven prospect so far in 7 years.  Hopefully, we can eventually add Riley Greene to the list but not now after just 28 games.

To be fair, we should only be looking at Al’s first 4 years to determine which players qualify because many of his selections haven’t had enough time yet to establish track records.

Given this, it should be noted that Avila has yet to show that he successfully drafted anyone before Tarik Skubal in 2018.  No one from the 2016 and 2017 drafts have panned out yet. Just 1 from 2018 and no one from 2019 which was almost 4 years ago. (But let’s also recognize that Covid delayed development for a year.)

We should also add the concern that those who are drafted are spending inordinate amounts of time in the minors. Some of these players are entering their late 20’s.  It is an issue of the level of talent selected combined with poor player development.

Looking further at Avila’s draft picks, Matt Manning, Casey Mize and Spencer Torkelson, all top drafts, are still unproven. Manning was drafted 7 years ago. Mize – 5 years ago. Torkelson gets a pass right now.

If we analyze this another way, in 7 years as GM, Al Avila has only 1 player total in Detroit to show for it.  In 7 years, the Tigers have only promoted 7 of his draft choices.  One player per year.

Even if you look just at his first three years of drafting, churning out just that 1 player is still not acceptable, esp. when your draft slot is among the highest.

The development of this player pipeline aspect is slower than sap flowing in a Vermont winter.

It’s not going to get us a competitive team anytime soon.  By the time other prospects get promoted, players like Casey Mize, Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene and others acquired via the tanking strategy may possibly be gone.

These stats support what other teams are saying about the Tigers.  That they have drafted high year after year and have very little to show for it.

Especially when you compare Al with his predecessor.  Dombrowski drafted much lower and churned out at least 1 successful player who advanced to Detroit and stuck every year.  A dozen of them in total.

No matter which way you slice it, no matter the variables, it’s a damning indictment of the failure of Al Avila and his advisors in drafting.

And if there’s no player pipeline, and an owner who won’t spend like his father, where are legitimate players going to come from?

We know what needs to be done.  Let’s hope that Chris Ilitch also knows the right thing to do.

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20 thoughts on “FIVE FOR FRIDAY”

  1. Thanks Holly, great data as usual; I’m reminded of an article in one of the dailies awhile back, (I’m sure it was the pre-Casey Mize draft) in which Scott Pleis was quoted as saying (paraphrasing here) : ‘we’ve been following this same process for years; we’ll continue to do what we’ve done before’. So here we are five years later with the same cadre essentially doing the same things, and asking us to believe successs is just around the next corner. 😳

    Liked by 6 people

  2. It’s obvious, Holly that you make an excellent case that Al Avila and his cronies have failed to draft good players and develop a pipeline and Al Avila needs to go. What ever DD was doing right, it’s obvious AA didn’t learn anything while working for him.. I am curious though, has DD adapted to the era of analytics and is he still drafting well or is he in fact an anachronism?

    Liked by 3 people

  3. Another concise thoroughly done article Holly on the State of Affairs. It is in Chris Ilitch’s hands now, he cannot hide anymore. He can no longer pass the buck, and the status quo will not work. He must see that something needs to be done. What is the plan now, and what is the timeline.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Not sure Chris really cares that much, Nick. He may view the Tigers as a “loss leader” to make the other Illitch enterprises more profitable. In any event, the team is low priority for him.

      Liked by 6 people

  4. Another great assessment, Holly! I keep wondering how to get you an interview with on-air personalities on 97.1 The Ticket. Wojo, & Mike Valenti have a huge following and been critical of Avila and the team for years. You would lend an interesting take on everything Tigers that would be heard by listeners who may not be aware of your talent. The fact that 97.1 is the southeast broadcast format for Tiger games would be the cherry on the cake!

    Liked by 8 people

    • I agree with most of your assessments.But I believe your off a year or two on the drafting of manning and mize?2016 fir Manning and 2018for Mize (June).??

      Like

  5. I’ve always given credit for JV to MI because he was willing to give JV the extra money to sign him. I think the same may be true for Porcello. Take those two away from DD and his success is that good either. I’m not defending AA just putting my 2 cents out there. One more thing, didn’t DD bring Chadd in?

    Liked by 1 person

    • Hi, Tater – Chadd did work under Dave and Al in Miami but it was Avila who personally brought him to the Tigers, not Dave. There’s an interview in which Chadd states as much and that he will always be thankful to Al for doing that. He also said that he appreciates loyalty and will always be beholdin’ to Avila. – Holly

      Liked by 1 person

  6. Despite being a nice guy in the right place, at the right time, Al has not really accomplished much on his own. The Tigers organization under his watch, was late, under his watch, to analytics. His success in signing International Players has been dismal.

    Liked by 5 people

  7. Some of Avila’s picks were consensus top tier picks among draft analysts. I suggests the Tigers are picking the right guy, but their player develop has been exceptionally poor. A professional amateur scout for a major league team told me “everyone sees the same players and knows which ones are top talent, but player development takes over after we draft them.”

    Liked by 8 people

  9. Very interesting article and really showed me how poorly Avila has performed compared to Dombrowski. I don’t think Chris Ilitch is ever going to put much money into the the tigers as he is more profit driven right now. I personally hope he sells soon so we can have a owner who wants to see a competitive team and will hold his assistants to the fire to perform or be moved out if they cannot.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Mr. Illitch was slow to put money into the Tigers despite loving baseball. He put his money into the Red Wings first. Perhaps, he was slow to beefing up the Tigers because he was recouping the money he used to buy the team. Now, Chris Illitch is slow, too. Perhaps because he was recouping his inheritance taxes?

      Liked by 2 people

    • Chris has been quoted in a recent interview as saying that the Ilitch family has no intention to sell the team…ever and at this point I’d believe him. As for Avila…don’t be surprised if he’s given the opportunity to right the ship…at least for another year. On a positive note it’ll provide more fodder for Holly’s blog!

      Liked by 1 person

    • Hi, gl1 – Yes, Luhnow will forever be radioactive. He was hated by most of the GMs, in part because they believed he pulled some moves that weren’t entirely honest with them and was overall not a nice person. He actively accepted cheating info from his staff and then when caught, he threw them all under the bus. After he was fired, he sued a bunch of people, including the Astros and MLB. He will never work in baseball ever again and has since moved on to another sport. – Holly

      Liked by 2 people

    • JD Martinez was also one of Avila’s biggest failures (second only to the JV trade). He got absolutely nothing in return for trading him and to make matters worse, JD is still going strong.

      Liked by 2 people

  11. What ? the Tigers have a “draft system” ??, hard to believe based on AA’s track record (or lack thereof) and it seems CI is disinterested, out of contact with the reality of how MLB works and probably doesn’t care. I can only foresee a disaster happening at the trade deadline, just my jaded 2 cents worth

    Liked by 4 people

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