RUSH TO JUDGMENT

/ totallytigersblog
by Holly Horning

We all got a little too excited.

But it was easy to do.

Ever since Mr. I passed away, Dave Dombrowski was “released”, Al Avila got promoted and the era of Brad Ausmus was born, Tiger fans haven’t had a whole lot about which to get excited.

There was the on-again, off-again tear down that started in 2015, reversed course in 2016 and then decidedly stuck in 2017.  We’ve been wallowing in roster wasteland (say that fast, 3 times) for 6-8 years.

And then, A. J. Hinch and a whole new set of non-Tiger cronies came on board.  The first multi-year free agent contract in awhile appeared.  Things were looking up.

Despite a disastrous start to the 2021 season, the team actually played .500+ baseball for more than half the year.

Things could only look up, right?

Some of us got giddy with hope.  Afterall, we had been wandering the competitive wasteland for quite awhile.

There was buzz about the 2022 season.  It involved the possibility that the Tigers would break the .500 barrier for the first time in 7 years.

There were guesses about how many wins this team could get.

And there was speculation (fueled by the local media) that the team would have a fair shot at the playoffs.

Many fans got a little drunk.

Understandably.

When you’ve been parched this long, you’re a little thirsty.

What we should have done was to have pulled back on the reins.  Used a little less heart and a few more grey cells.

The fact is, the Tigers still have a very long way to go in order to achieve a competitive level.

What we should have done is taken a look at the current roster and synced it with the future.

But we’re seeing it now, enabled by all the injuries.

As I’ve written before, all legitimate contenders have depth in their system.  The Tigers don’t.  And it’s become very apparent this year as they continue to dig down into the minors to find replacements for players hitting the IL. 

We weren’t supposed to be seeing some of them this year.  But we are now.

But that’s just part of the problem.

Who, right now, is going to be part of this team in 2-3 years when many have said the Tigers should be in the playoffs?

In the infield, only Spencer Torkelson.  Maybe Javy Baez (he has an opt-out) and Jeimer Candelario.

The Tigers appear to have reneged on the contract extension for Tucker Barnhart at the moment so he’s not a safe bet.

The outfield?  Do you see anyone currently who is a safe bet to be here in 2023 or 2024?

Maybe Austin Meadows but he’ll be pushing 30 by then. And how can we include Riley Greene when he has yet to play a single game at the MLB level? He’s likely but not a slam dunk.

As for relievers, the nature of the job is so transient that we’ll leave that analysis alone.

Starting pitching.  It’s the only area in which we can be somewhat comfortable.

The main issue is that this roster is turning over at a glacial pace.

After all these years of tanking, the Tigers have only 1 new positional player to show for it.

Which prospects are being seen as legitimate – not hyped – heirs to catcher, second base, third base, LF and RF?  How far away are they from reaching Detroit?

And once those new rookies (hopefully) show up?  They’re not going to produce at a solid and regular rate for 1-3 years. A level that is needed to make the team competitive.

How many more years is this going to take?

Please tell me it won’t take as long as it took Michelangelo to pain the Sistine Chapel.

After 7ish years of a tear down/rebuild, shouldn’t this team be further ahead than it is?

And Houston Astros fans complained about the 4 long years it took their team to rebuild. The Tigers appear to be headed towards the 10-year mark.

But really, should we be surprised at how long this is taking?

The Tigers have never been known to be quick, decisive or pro-active.  They have always been the last to adopt strategy after almost all the other teams.

If we go by pattern, this rebuild, too, will be longer than most.

It is suspect that Chris Ilitch gave Al Avila a contract of undetermined length.  It is the only contract like that in MLB.

And you have to ask why.

Is it because, as a new owner, this was uncharted territory and he wanted to have the flexibility to see how things progressed?

Was it because Ilitch wanted to avoid public debate and calls for the firing of his GM during the ugly rebuilding process?

We will never know.

What we do know is that Avila is the architect of this plan.  And when your architect starts missing deadlines, over-promising and under-delivering, or keeps making revisions to the plans, it’s time to start thinking about hiring his replacement.

The biggest question to ask is how soon does Ilitch want his plan completed and functional?

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30 thoughts on “RUSH TO JUDGMENT”

  1. I’d say Al has 3 more years and perhaps longer depending on how it goes, making the playoffs etc. CI owns and runs the team, not AJ or anyone else. If Al is the problem, DD will probably available soon but how much real money do you think CI will throw away trying what failed before?

    Liked by 1 person

  2. I’ve pretty much realized that I will probably be in my 90’s can barely see and hear the TV broadcast before the Tigers make it to the playoffs.

    Liked by 6 people

    • I know how you feel being over 80. I honestly think the rest of this year and next year should be better. BTW not seeing or hearing most of the TV coverage is not necessarily a bad thing!

      Liked by 7 people

  3. Brutally honest on all counts. I fear we will be irrelevant for many years and that will be just fine with the Owner of this once proud franchise who probably has more passion for “crazybread”then he ever will for this baseball “portfolio “ that he currently holds. Sad times for the best fans in baseball

    Liked by 8 people

  4. Holly,another great and very accurate piece. I was carefully optimistic before this season,but realized Al Avila was still the architect and director of this team. His continuing track record is of failure and incompetence. Until Chris Ilitch cares enough to finally replace Avila,it will be a continuing cycle of failure and disappointment.

    Liked by 6 people

  5. Al Avila is the Tigers bizarro world version of Howard Roark – an architect who refuses to compromise his vision. So many national pundits and local cheerleaders continue to scorn those who do not see the superstar potential and organizational depth. It’s the Tigers version of the Millen era – wasted years and wake me when he’s finally gone.

    Liked by 5 people

  6. I guess this is what the Old Skipper meant by disdaining “team chemistry” as compared to talent. Al Avila is as comfortable as an old shoe for Chris Illitch. I wonder how many years of blisters it will take before he has that shoe bronzed with a merely ceremonial job title.

    Liked by 6 people

  7. CI is a business man, not a sports fan. I feel he will follow in the footsteps of the Ford family and how they run the Lions. Make money and let the suckers keep paying for hope and change that never comes.

    Liked by 4 people

      • I don’t think criticism of a team’s ownership that has won only 1 playoff game in 57 years is denigrating. Sorry but they deserve it. BTW, Sheila hasn’t won anything either.

        Liked by 2 people

  8. I think the Astros rebuild is an outlier. My guess is 95% of “rebuilds” go just like this one. They take a LOT of time, some don’t work, and very few go as planned. Maybe we should stop comparing the Tiger’s rebuild to an outlier and adjust our expectations as such.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. Some members of the media are in line w/ your thoughts, Holly. A local radio host was professing the very same sentiment yesterday. If not for his deep voice, I would have sworn that it was you! I keep wondering if AJ would consider becoming the GM before winning on the field. George Lombard could step in as manager… Hey, I can dream!

    Liked by 1 person

  10. I attended a Tigers game in 1997 and it was supposed to be a team of young talent getting ready to compete – not until 9 years later after a lot of losing. In reflecting on the team’s history, the 1968 and 1984 champions had a nucleus of organization developed talent. The 2006 team and the following 10 years was competitive through spending on acquisitions but little talent from the farm system – recent history in not very promising.

    Liked by 2 people

    • I refer to that period a lot Don with some younger friends – been there done that with a “top rated farm system” and number one ranking in Baseball America. Zero winning seasons under Randy Smith, with the same arrogance and “big hat no cattle” mentality we see from this failed regime.

      Liked by 3 people

  11. What a giant underachieving injured mess this team has become. They will go on a couple of impressive hot streaks before the year is up, but they will still be losers. The snowman has melted, there is just an old hat, a carrot, and some chunks of coal laying on the ground.

    Liked by 2 people

  12. The big difference this season is that CI opened up his wallet, in hopes of assembling a winning team. I know it has been reported that Avila is a family friend, but spending a lot of money just to lose so badly might be the wake up call for a change in the GM.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. You don’t always get what you pay for in baseball. Spending a boatload of money guarantees nothing. A few players get crazy wealthy, but that’s it.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Um. . .show me a winning, healthy franchise with good fan support that does not spend money. Mets were terrible. Mets spent money. Mets are competitive. Oakland, still following sabermetrics, is in crisis.

      Liked by 2 people

      • I agree with you, Dave. Even theTwins spent some big dough and they are ten times more watchable and fun to cheer for than the group of sad sacks who wear the old English D. And we fans are so masochistic– blaming ourselves for hoping our group would attain .500 this year.

        Liked by 5 people

  14. Wow–I was so darned hyped up about this year–and so terribly disappointed!! Who would have thought that this year would be such a disaster so far. I guess there will be no real changes until Chris I decides he’s seen enough of Uncle Al’s incompetence and decides to get a “real” GM.

    Liked by 5 people

    • My hope is that Chris I is laying the ground work for the transition to a new more “tuned in” GM and my guess is that it will be an in house promotion as Al Avila retires or is booted upstairs. Could happen as soon as next year, I will keep my fingers crossed that someone competent is elevated into that position.

      Liked by 2 people

  15. Expectations for the Tigers were reasonable. Injuries cannot be accounted for. The Tigers lead MLB in injuries and games lost. There is no team in the world that could lose their entire starting pitching staff, key members of the bullpen and selected starters and compete for a division title. No one. The Tigers are hit especially hard due to their rebuilding. All expectations are based on the team staying healthy. That is always the caveat.

    Liked by 4 people

  16. I’ve been saying on this blog for years now that tater6 is spot on. CI is running tigers like the fords run the lions. He’s a business man an holly says this is how you make money.

    Liked by 3 people

  17. As bad as everything has been this year, I’m amazed at what Chris Fetter has done with the cobbled together pitching staff. Wish the hitting coaches were as effective.

    Liked by 7 people

  18. I plead guilty to thinking that the Tigers would break .500 this year. And, until recently, I thought the Tigers’ injury situation could follow the corrective path suggested by Chuck Noll’s remark, “You play with the team that shows.” But Noll’s teams had depth. And they had depth partly because they had an excellent GM. Reluctantly, I think it’s time for AA to go, because the team that shows–his team– apparently isn’t going anywhere.

    Liked by 2 people

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