UNEXPECTED EXPECTATIONS

by Holly Horning

It just goes to show that one should never listen to certain local sports writers who tell us that a certain pitching prospect is the next coming of Nolan Ryan and Justin Verlander rolled into one.

Nothing so far in this Tigers’ rebuild has played out according to these projections.

There have been disappointments but there have also been surprises.  The players we were told to watch, told that they would take this team to the top of the heap, have not fared so well.

It’s the ones under the radar who have surprised us for the most part.

And it’s putting the Tigers’ master rebuilding plan back into the edit phase.

Casey Mize was the #1 draft pick in 2018 and for 5 years now, we’ve been waiting to see the potential we were promised.  After a small sampling under Ron Gardenhire’s regime, we were anxious to see him under a new manager and pitching coach.

The 2021 season showed some progress, esp. in ERA and WHIP but it was expected that 2022 would be Mize’s breakout year.

It’s been anything but.  Conflict over whether or not to throw his splitter combined with a loss of control that ballooned his ERA to 5.40 and his worst-ever WHIP.

Of course, development is not a linear process but shouldn’t there be some signs that show us the Tigers were correct in selecting him as their #1 draft pick?

And now, another injury has shut him down for the 3^rd time since the Tigers signed him.  As of yet, there is no timetable for his return.

Even the words from manager A. J. Hinch to describe Casey’s progess in advancing his pitching skills were very diplomatic.

Matt Manning was the other #1 draft pick.  We were also told he would be the #2 punch to Mize and would help put Detroit back near the top of the standings.

That hasn’t worked out yet either.  There were stories over the past couple of years about doubt and struggle over whether Manning would actually make it.  After 5 years, there is some hope, however, Manning is also on the IL and still has yet to throw from the mound.

As we move to the 2^nd round draft picks, Spencer Turnbull came up slowly, showed promise, but is now in limbo as he recovers from Tommy John surgery and is not expected to return to the mound until next year.  The Tigers selected him in 2014 and even though it was a high draft pick for Detroit, the team had one of MLB’s lowest draft orders back then.

Alex Faedo was widely touted since 2017 when he was selected in the 2^nd round.  Multiple injuries and setbacks have kept him, 5 years later, on a back burner.  There’s a chance he may be called up at some point this year.

Now you know why they say you can’t have enough pitching.

On the flip side, there are 2 starters doing well.  Both of them flying under the radar of the local sports writers.

Zero expectations.

Heck, we didn’t even know about them until they were called up.

The first is Tarik Skubal.  The 9^th round draft pick who zoomed up the ladder in just 2 years.  He throws a higher variety of pitches than the rest of the touted prospects and is now considered to be the best of all the young pitching hopefuls so far.

And today?  Beau Brieske.  Who heard of him before his call-up? One year ago, he was in A ball.

He was drafted in the 27^th (yes, you read that right) round in 2019.  It took him less than 3 years to make the majors.

What do he and Skubal have in common?

They are said to fight the odds and persevere.  Both said to have “ice in their veins.”  Both called “bulldogs.”

These phrases were also used to describe Justin Verlander.  And Nolan Ryan.

Brieske said he knew the odds but had a “prove you wrong” mentality.  He’s also described as being a “high-IQ pitcher.”

Both pitchers, btw, consistently throw strikes, utilize a complete arsenal and aren’t afraid to attack hitters and take advantage of their weakest traits at the plate.

Is it a coincidence that these 2 pitchers with the same make up are pitching the best so far?  How important is mental fortitude?

Consider that Justin Verlander hadn’t pitched in almost 2 years, underwent major surgery and currently has 2 wins, 1 loss and a 1.73 ERA.  Oh, and a ridiculous .692 WHIP.  All at the age of 39.

Try telling him that he couldn’t come back, especially at his age.  I dare you.

So we read about how Skubal and Brieske have extraordinary powers of toughness and the ability to stay even-keeled during the most intense parts of a game.  We’ve also heard that Turnbull shares this quality.  But what about Mize, Manning and Faedo?

Does physical talent and mental fortitude go hand in hand?

And what about expectations?  Do the very top draft picks feel more pressure to perform well?  And does that get in the way or slow down their ability to progress?

There are still many more chapters to write in this book.  Certainly a lot of things can change.

But wouldn’t it be interesting if Detroit’s future long-term starting rotation ended up not having many of their very top draft picks?

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