This week, Fangraphs published their ZIPS projections for how well each MLB team will perform during the coming year. It is a widely-respected system within the baseball world and considered to be largely on-target with their analyses.
Unfortunately, they project the Tigers will not do as well as they did last year. They are estimating that Detroit will finish with a 76-86 record – a full 10 games under .500. For the 2021 season, the Tigers had a 77-85 record.
The difference is a minuscule amount, but most importantly, it signifies that they don’t believe the team is on the upswing as many believe. And despite ZIPS’ reputation, I personally believe the Tigers will perform better.
And I’ve got 5 reasons why…….
The tandem of Mize, Manning and Skubal have more seasoning under their belts and a full year of coaching from Chris Fetter. We saw how Mize struggled under the tutelage of Rick Anderson and how he regained much of his form last year under a new coach. This year will start showing better and more consistent performances from all 3.
The roster is not yet complete. The Tigers have stated they are looking for another starting pitcher and an outfielder. The ZIPS projection is based upon their current roster.
This will be the year the Tigers have a stronger up-the-middle with the additions of Tucker Barnhart and Javier Baez. And if Spencer Torkelson comes up, Jonathan Schoop, who is a plus defender, moves back to second base full-time, further strengthening defense. Having those 3 will improve the defensive metrics.
Last year saw a variety of catchers and utility men at 2B and SS while the Tigers were also experimenting in CF. This year will be much better because the defensive positions will more settled and stable given that there is a new #1 catcher, new SS and the afore-mentioned expected move of Jonathan Schoop back to 2B. No more cast of characters in the 2B/SS slots. No Niko Goodrum.
Stats and trends are all great but ZIPS completely ignores the human factor in the equation. As we’ve seen from the past, managers and coaches do matter. A lot. Hinch, Lombard, Fetter et al are among the very best and we saw last year how their work with the team earned much better results than expected. I expect that their influence will continue to grow now that they’ve had a full year to discover which plans and strategies worked the best.
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The ZIPS projection is a bit of a head-scratcher since A) the team has not lost key players from last season and have added some +WAR players. Perhaps they project declining performance from veterans like Cabrera, Schoop, Grossman, Barnhart, and even Baez. Who knows, I am with Holly and think the right staff is putting the pieces of this team together and that it will show up in the win column.
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With Gary Jones added to his staff, AJ continues to build a team of coaches, which Holly alludes to whose expertise and human factors are void from the ZIP’S projection. And solid up the middle defense, something often sorely missing from the past few years, can be a game changer. Intelligently thought-out additions will benefit the staff, offense, and defense, and I fully expect those will come via trade or FA signings.
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Everything being equal, the addition of key players should produce more wins for the Tigers. Except, nothing is ever the same from year to year and the Tigers won’t surprise teams this year with their style of play. However, the points made above are sound and if they avoid key injuries and subpar performances, they should reasonably be expected to win more games this year.
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Also, no team avoids “key injuries” over a full season, especially in the era of delicate pitching arms. So certainly the team’s organizational depth will be tested again. Even if pitch counts are raised, each team needs to use a couple of dozen pitchers.
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Everything depends on the health of the players, specifically injuries. That aside…I think the team will improve their record, but not significantly since more time is needed for the young players to become true major leaguers, and for the whole team to jell.
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The new players that have been/will be added to our team (based on sound analytics) will positively impact our win/loss position in ways that we have not seen in the past. AJ, his coaches and our front office makeover will continue to influence outcomes. Most importantly, the 2nd year of organizational culture building will influence our standing in ways that ZIPS cannot quantify.
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I think the ZIPS projection is probably pretty close because the Tigers always have trouble against the White Sox and Cleveland and Kansas City and Minnesota are always very competitive against them.
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By eliminating most of the legacy personnel, the New Tiger Way is benefitting from the “addition by subtraction” principle. The hiring of Hinch and the embrace of a philosophy that includes transparency and accountability represents a long overdue turning point. Combining that with a comprehensive buildout of an analytics department justifies Tiger fans expecting a better record this season.
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There are so many young players that it’s hard to tell. Mize, Manning and Skubal are certainly keys. Sometimes young pitchers do not progress linearly, there can be bumps along the way and the same goes for Tork and Greene.
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They over achieved and were somewhat lucky last year. I think Baez and Rodriguez are upgrades but nothing significant enough to see upward movement. I think Skubal and Mize should perform like they did last year. Manning is the wild card…he was bad last year. A lot can happen between now and when baseball starts. If there are positive outcomes for all three above, they will be above .500. If none are positive, the ZIPS projection will be pretty close.
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If, and that is a big if, the 3 kids continue to progress as SP’s the Tigers should be in the .500 range. With a little help from new guys like Baez, (not sold on Barnhart at all), there should not be the long terrible slump like they had early last year that could have ruined the entire season. They don’t contend unless the ChiSox fall back but they should remain at the Cleveland, Minny, KC level.
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good point regarding the catcher position. Offensively, last year the C position was very productive with 31 HR and an OPS of .754. Those numbers will drop significantly if Barnhart gets most of the ABs as catcher.
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That could be true about Barnhart’s offense, but defensibly, it will mean a lot more to the team, especially the young pitchers.
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His defensive numbers appear to be a factor of the staff he was catching, as it always is. The Tiger pitching will have much more to do with Barnhart’s numbers than Barnhart will. Even McCann became a decent defensive catcher when he left the Tigers, as he was considered prior to his years in Detroit.
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I was surprised by the ZIPS projection because on paper the Tigers have improved in all phases, but particularly defense up the middle, which in my opinion is underrated. My guess is that the reason for the projection is the White Sox and Royals also got stronger.
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Not surprised by zips. Their straight mathematics (left brain) and don’t take human factor’s (right brain) (eye test) into account. Also other teams have improved too so, while I agree with Holly, it’s why we play the games.
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Tigers will win 70 games, they won’t play a full season.
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Holly’s right. There are too many intangibles and variables for a purely analytical projection of how the team will perform. It’s also why we play the games instead of deciding the result by seeing how teams match up on paper.
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Based on previous years performance, the Tigers may have over achieved but by how much? With the new additions and increased experience of the young players, they will be improved. Baez is a huge upgrade but the others, not so much. Assuming a full season, no more additions and no major injuries I think 82-84 wins.
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Last season was a delight. How great it was to see the effort and aggressiveness brought forth by Hinch and staff, and the players themselves. The culture change was obvious. But I’ve felt for awhile that AJ’s biggest challenge might be to duplicate that magic this year and avoid any letdown . Yes, key talent has been added, but they won’t sneak up on anyone either. If it’s off, I don’t think ZIPS is wrong by a lot. It’s nice to be optimistic though for a change.
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Essentially, I think #3 and #4 are the same. So my #4 will be the bullpen. I believe the bullpen will be stronger late in games. With Fulmer backing up Soto at the closer position, and Cisnero and Fulmer being the go to set-up guys, I believe the Tigers will be better at closing out close games.
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I agree with the comments by Holly and Hughie Jennings. I believe that the fate of the Tigers this year depends on their ability to beat the teams in their division on the road. If they do well there, then .500 will be a cinch. I’m hoping…..
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Pre-Season Baseball publications typically base their predictions for the coming season based upon a team’s performance in the season which was just completed. The 2022 Tigers’ manager, coaches, and players are too good to be tabbed at 76-86.
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