THE WISH LIST

by Holly Horning

The Detroit Tigers finished under .500 this year but managed to avoid the basement again, finishing in third place.  Much better than most analysts had predicted.  One of their worst starts in history was offset by playing .500+ ball for 5 of the 6 months.

And it got tongues wagging about how the team was so close to becoming competitive again.  Some, especially the writers for the 2 Detroit dailies, were predicting that the team could see the playoffs in the coming year.

But what does it mean to be “competitive?”  Does it mean having a record of .500 or above?

Or does it mean an occasional foray into the division’s top spot?

Does it mean earning a wild card spot or even taking the AL Central title?

Could it even mean advancing in the playoffs?

“Being competitive” means different things to different people.  And it really needs to be defined.

As we discussed in an earlier blog this month, owners are more concerned with earning a healthy profit and staying competitive to some degree.  If a ring or flag comes with it, that’s nice, too.  But that’s not their top priority.  It’s a bonus, not a goal, for most of them.  They’re businesspeople after all, not fans.

Managers, on the other hand, are consumed with winning.  And you know that A. J. Hinch wants his team to go all the way.

So does Al Avila.

So realistically, how close is this team?  Do they have a few, some or most of the pieces necessary for winning?

That’s what we need to look at.  Not just the win-loss record and improvement seen in the team.

We’ve got to look at the expected division leader and compare similar roster parts with them.  We’ve got to look at the expected leaders in the other AL divisions. And even those in the NL.

We’ve also got to acknowlege how the length of a season can undo any team’s talent via injury or exhaustion.

Let’s do that right now.  Here’s my wish list of what the Tigers need to do if they seriously want to compete with the best teams out there.  I’ve kept it to the biggest needs and purposely excluded the secondary ones which will always be a factor further into the rebuild.

STARTING PITCHING

We can’t expect Mize, Manning and Skubal to all hit the expectations of high levels of success.  Two more starting pitchers at a minimum are going to be needed.

And considering that the Tigers use 13-15 different starting pitchers each year, they are going to need many more viable SPs to step up and fill in as needed.

THE ROOKIES

It’s unrealistic to believe that Torkelson, Greene and any other highly-touted prospects will come up and immediately become the solutions that the team needs.  Everyone needs experience, seasoning and learning lessons from their failures and struggles.  To expect them to master their positions in 1 year or less is an overreach.  Two years is still being very optimistic.

I would also caution against the belief that Tork and Greene are automatic slam-dunks to become star players before even setting foot in MLB.  Nothing is a given until proven.

THE OUTFIELD

This is the area in greatest flux.  Robbie Grossman has 1 more year with the team.  Other than him, no one else can be inked into a position.  There’s an inconsistent player, an oft-injured player and an unknown, untested player.  The outfield isn’t even half-formed jello yet.  There’s a lot of work – and a lot of player fits –  that still need to be done.

THE INFIELD

As with the outfield, we cannot automatically assume that Spencer Torkelson will survive and thrive at 1B until we see him play some games there.

Jonathan Schoop has 2 years left on his contract.  In the meantime, the Tigers have no viable candidates in the pipeline to take over for him.  In a perfect world, they would be bringing up someone for Schoop to mentor at 2B in 2023.

MIGUEL CABRERA

Meanwhile, Miguel Cabrera is playing 1B several days a week with Schoop playing it most other days.  But Miggy will be 40 by the time his contract expires and his skills will continue to diminish with age.  Forget about the Tigers cutting him because it simply won’t happen. But the team will need to find a way to maximize his contributions while also keeping him from diminishing the lineup.

THE CATCHER

Tucker Barnhart has a 1-year contract with the Tigers.  But what happens if he doesn’t work out or if the Tigers can’t extend him?  Are they going to cross their fingers and hope that Jake Rogers can resume his old form after having Tommy John surgery?  That’s a risky option.

Dillon Dingler is still at least 2 years away and the Tigers need to desperately increase the depth at the catching position.

OFFENSE

Do the Tigers have any hitter who is considered a real threat?  Other than Miggy, are there any viable seasoned bats?  That’s a clear “no.”  Somehow, the Tigers are going to have to go out and find one.  Or wait 2 years to see if Tork and/or Greene can evolve into that kind of hitter.

DEPTH

The team may have some solid prospects in the wings but having depth is another matter.  There will be a few who will see Detroit this year but after 2022, then who?  That’s still unclear.

It takes years of bringing up talent before you can really build depth and the Tigers aren’t there yet.

TRAINING AND CONDITIONING

The top layers of the Tigers’ organization are new but once you scratch that surface, many of the old people who have been running things for 20+ years are still there.  Including the training and conditioning staff.  Can you mix old methods with new ways?  Will the new coaches who came from teams with top T&C staff like what they see?

In addition to depth, being able to withstand and prevent injuries is crucial to having a team being able to play 162 games using most of their original roster.

PLAYER DEVELOPMENT

The Tigers still have a lot of holes in their outfield, infield and rotation.  There is little depth and it’s going to be up to VP Player Development, Ryan Garko, to accelerate the education of players in the minors.  The Tigers’ m.o. has been to allow players to move slowly through the ranks and linger in the minors for years.  But Garko is going to need to move top prospects through the system quickly – ideally in 3 years or less.

Depth won’t be achieved until then.  And consider that a number of top prospects who are in their 2^nd year with Detroit – or about to come up – are all clients of Scott Boras who will take them to free agency in as little as 4 years.  The Tigers need to move minor league prospects up to Detroit while their predecessors are still playing for the team.

I know some of you were looking for the bullpen to be added here.  While yes, it is a factor, it is a very transient area of any team with lots of turnover and performance changes from year to year.  As the Tigers get closer to serious contending, they will become more of a factor.

In summary, for the Tigers to become contenders, they are going to have to sync and coordinate a number of areas of concern and development.  They need to mitigate areas that will hold them back while accelerating programs to speed up the pipeline.  They are in the position of having windows of opportunity opening but also realizing that the clock is ticking before some windows start to close.  What they really need to do is timing everything so that critical mass is achieved.  Critical mass that lasts for multiple years – and not just 1-2 seasons.

There is a lot of promise, but also a lot of unknowns.

Next year is sure to be better.  But do we want this team’s goal to be merely solid, good or outstanding?

It all depends upon what your definition of “being competitive” is….

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• The Tigers joined the list of teams with the longest playoff droughts. And given the teams who joined them, it’s not a good look.

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