BACK TO THE FUTURE – PART TWO

by Holly Horning

“No man is truly great who is great only in his lifetime. The test of greatness is the page of history.”

– William Hazlitt

Today, let’s continue the discussion surrounding the latter stages of the Tigers’ rebuild.

We all have lots of questions about their priorities, when they may once again contend and when a championship roster may be completed.

We’ve been getting more clues this year with all the new hires.  But these recent additions have also generated more questions.

On Tuesday, I wrote about the need to go back in time and analyze the ownership under Mike Ilitch.  With the passing of time, perspectives change.  Allowing some time gives us the gift of detachment, thereby allowing us to better understand why certain moves and strategies were made.

If you didn’t read it then – or need to review the issues – here it is again because it’s important to understand Mr. I in order to help us appropriately frame the new leadership under Chris Ilitch.

BACK TO THE FUTURE – PART ONE

Going back in time allows us to revisit assumptions and see things more clearly.  Most importantly, it allows us to make sense of the present.

Emotions are not as raw.  Emotions that can often cloud what we believe.

Today, we’re going to address Chris Ilitch’s actions and try to understand them better.  Is he the Satan or the saint of our beloved team? Or somewhere in-between?

Let’s review the factors that are in play.  And as we do so, let’s put the assumptions we’ve made to the side in an honest attempt to see things more clearly.

In effect, we need to erase the board and start over.  And if we come to the same conclusions, then so be it.

But if we see things differently, and consider more possibilities, we may just come to believe that there were other motivational factors at play.  Or at least, different strategies.

Maybe we even begin to understand why certain actions were taken and why some weren’t.  All will play into understanding this team better as they continue to change and adapt.

Now, let’s discuss the enigma known as Chris Ilitch.

First of all, it’s interesting to see how different father and son are.  Mike was extroverted and wore his heart on his sleeve.  You knew where he stood and he was always the center of attention at any press conference. 

Mr. I loved his players and bonded on a personal level with so many of them.  Relationships were very important to him.

On the other end is Chris.  Evidence of being introverted (at least in public) and always measured in his thoughts.  He rarely spoke other than at the few important yearly events.  It’s been reported that he avoids the public glare as much as possible.

He came from the Dave Dombrowski school of communication.  He made comments without really telling you anything.  Even his statements about spending on free agents this off-season can be interpreted multiple ways.

Chris is not an emotional man – at least in the business world.  He measures everything before acting or speaking.

And he’s a highly successful businessman despite the fans who mock him as the guy who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth.  He’s got a BA in business administration from Michigan and oversees a multi-billion dollar conglomerate.  If he couldn’t cut it, he wouldn’t be in the position he is. 

Since taking over from his father, he has increased the value of the Tigers by app. 32% according to some business journals.  His earnings (combined with other family members) has moved Ilitch Holdings into a tie for first place of MLB’s richest owners along with Steve Cohen of the Mets.

The man knows how to make money, pure and simple.  But the biggest myth out there is that the richest are supposed to spend the most.  In actuality, the richest spend as little as necessary.  That’s how they got to be so rich. 

The smartest business people make solid investments and don’t spend money without giving it very careful consideration.  They are the least likely to make big, splashy investments.  Or at least follow through on promises.  You can see this point in Chris’ failure to keep his promises about District Detroit. 

Yes, it is a red flag when you see a pattern to someone’s spending habits, but let’s wait a little bit longer before we make any judgments about his intentions re the Tigers.

Where Chris gets the bum rap is from fans’ expectations that he is now required, even obligated, to spend just like his father.

So does that mean the Tigers are doomed to never see October baseball again as long as CI runs it?

No.  At least we can’t say that yet.  We haven’t seen Chris go through his first real test of building a successful baseball product.  Since he took over, the team has been entrenched in the dismantling phase.

Let’s now turn to that topic. 

Chris did not inherit a pretty picture when he took over the Tigers.  His father had vastly overspent on trying to buy that World Series ring and once that window closed, the team was buried under a mountain of expensive contracts on ageing players that few now wanted.  His father has created an unsustainable system that would collapse sooner rather than later.

The Tigers lost millions under Mike’s ownership for his last 10 years as owner.  The Tigers had  MLB’s highest operating expenses, nearly double that of the next team.  For the record, it was reported that Chris cut them in half during his first year in charge.

But the monetary expenditure and results waiting for him in 2017 was very ugly.

The Tigers had 98 losses that year (.395 win/loss percentage) and ended the year 38 games out of first place.  The payroll?  Over $200 million.

In 2018, the team had the same record as 2017.  Over $135 million in salary alone.

For 2019, the Tigers almost set a record – and not a good one.  Losses were 114 (.292 win/loss record) and a whopping 53.5 games out of first.  Salary was $129 million.

Ridiculous, right?  If you were him, what would you have done?  Allowed the most expensive players to age and stay on the roster, significantly extending the years of misery?  Or ripping the bandage off as quickly as possible?

The dumping of fan favorites like JV, J. D. Martinez and others was very ugly.  But it had to be done.  You can’t find fault with this strategy even though no one liked it.

It was going to be ugly either way.  The only choice to be made was how long should the misery be allowed to continue.  This was simply an example of “live by the sword, die by the sword.”

However, if any anger is to be appropriately placed, it should be on the return the Tigers got from other teams.  And that blame lies with Al Avila. (We’ll discuss him in Part 3, so please save your comments about the GM until then.)

Chris is a businessman and he’s looking at the bottom line.  We saw a brief glimpse of his style when he briefly took over for his father one year and denied Dave Dombrowski’s request for more money in order to sign Joe Nathan.  Dave was forced to cut some salary and the day after he traded Doug Fister, Nathan was signed.

Looking at the Tigers now, Chris moved the team into the black a mere 2 years after he took over.

To put this in perspective, and to show the relevance, there are several other teams in the AL Central which are having financial issues.  The Royals, to an unknown degree.  But also the Indians who are having serious problems and now have MLB’s lowest payroll at $50 million in an attempt to right the ship.  They are also surrounded by the rumors of selling and possibly a relocation of the team.

And now we’re hearing the whispers that the Tigers are a likely landing spot for Carlos Correa simply because the Tigers became infamous for doing these insane contracts.  Potentially adding another contract that is expected to be around $340 million and 10 years.  Couple that with the fact that Correa played for A. J. Hinch.  Many journalists believe this will happen without even considering the guy who signs the checks.

But do you really believe that Chris Ilitch will do that?  Do you even want him to put the majority of money on a single player?

Do you believe that he wants to get back into the payroll escalation game after just getting out?  With Miguel Cabrera’s salary still on the books (and increasing) for the next 2 years?  With the Tigers still not close to contending?  You sign a player like Correa when you need that last piece in order to take you over the top.  Not when you still need to fill 3-5 other positions.

Chris did state in his last interview that that Tigers won’t be doing insane contracts and that his wish is to create a sustainable team.

Translation:  We’re not going to be tied down with lengthy expensive contracts that will weigh us down as that player becomes older and less productive.  We want to create a roster of top talent that will stay with us and when a player leaves, we have depth in the minors to replace him and allow this team to stay competitive year after year.

It’s important that we see Chris’ point of view.  It’s also important to understand the options he had.  We don’t have to like them but we need to understand them nonetheless.

He is very different than his father.  Mike was beloved but had a horrible instinct when it came to running the team.  Many find it hard to like Chris but could he potentially be the savior of the team?  Could he turn out to be the smart owner who raises the bar and puts a focus on evolving this organization into a smart one that stays updated and proactive?

That is still to be determined.  His first real test comes this year.  This off-season.

But it’s not going to happen overnight.  It’s not going to happen all in one year.  It’s going to take some time.

The Tigers are still in the process of dismantling as they formally evaluate all their talent and decide which players have a continued future with the team.  But now, for literally the first time in decades, they are digging beyond the roster.

Does this mean that Chris is the instigator of change?

You’ll just have to wait until this blog series concludes next week to find out.  We’ll dig into the new vision and identify the culprits responsible.

We’ll also explore Al Avila’s relationship to the team, the building of a new team and what the Gardenhire years were all about.

And the biggest question?  Why did the Tigers wait until this year to start making changes to their player development system.

Stay tuned…..

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What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday? (And why aren’t you following TT yet?)

• The Tigers have 4 players who are now free agents. Who are they?

• There are now 6 former starting pitchers from the Detroit Tigers who have now earned their World Series rings with other teams.

• Is TT’s timing perfect or what? The Tigers sign a new catcher via trade on the day we post a similar blog.

• Tucker Barnhart’s signing shows that A. J. Hinch’s fingerprints were all over it.

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