The Tigers made some major changes to their Front Office a couple weeks ago. And while this should have been done years ago, we were still shocked that it actually happened.
So now, we’re delving into the reasons behind the moves. Why did they happen just now? Why not 1, 2 or 3 years earlier? Did the changes happen because of A. J. Hinch coming on board? Al Avila finally given the green light? Or was it Chris Ilitch?
In order to explore these potential candidates, we need to go back to 2015.
All the way back to when Al Avila took over as GM.
We had great hopes when Avila stated over the winter that the Tigers were going to develop a Tigers’ Way manual that would create a system for developing, training and coaching players. A system that would create a uniform program so every player from A ball through MLB would play the game the same way.
And it was one of the world’s best-kept secrets. After that statement, we saw and heard nothing. We certainly didn’t see any improvement whatsoever in how any athlete in the Detroit system played the game. In fact, we saw quite the opposite.
In 2015, Avila hired Jay Sartori to develop and run the Tigers’ analytics department. Before then, the Tigers had 1 analytics employee. By 2017, they had 7 people. Most other teams before then had 8-30 members.
In a 2020 interview, Sartori said that it took 2 years to get a platform in place that would allow for solid research. This also meant that from 2016 through 2017, the team wasn’t able to do much research or analysis. And reports have the Caesar system still being built in 2017.
We saw the proof in the signing of Jordan Zimmermann. Something that would not have happened if the Tigers had a system in place much earlier.
And the analytics department didn’t appear to be making much of an impact in 2019 either when the Tigers signed former Pirates Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison solely on the recommendation of Jim Leyland.
Four years now after Avila’s statement about creating a Tigers Way, there’s no evidence that it existed.
Why?
Recent articles state that the analytics department was having a tough time dealing with Al Avila and his senior staff. The two sides were described as “oil and water” – not mixing well together.
No surprise really. Old school men who combined to make MLB’s oldest Front Office who didn’t readily accept new systems that had been put in place by other teams over a decade ago. Including a “special assistant” in Jim Leyland who has been vocal (even recently) about not believing in analytics.
Sartori said that it’s important for any analytical staff to be able to facilitate the communication and implementation of information to Front Offices, coaches and managers. In turn, when successful, this info is then passed down to the players by those in charge of them.
But the Tigers had a massive mission. They had to convince old-school guys, an aged manager and older, retired coaches to buy in. It was an impossible task.
So this new analytics department continued to sit without making much of an impact. It would take yet another year for them to make inroads.
In 2019, the Tigers had 14 members in their analytics department, but all were focused on addressing the MLB level and not the farm system. Even when the Tigers were tanking and ranked at #1 in the draft selection process for multiple years, they had no analytics department to dependably guide them.
Sartori stated back in early 2020 that the team needed to develop a system of training and coaching. He confirmed that a spring training meeting several weeks earlier resulted in a plan that would be put into action.
Yet, nothing happened last year although the Tigers started investing in their analytics department. Maybe Covid messed with the timeline and goals. But it was also proof that the Tigers’ Way manual, touted back in 2015, still did not yet exist.
It finally came into fruition this year, halfway through the season, when the Front Office asked Hinch and Fetter to help develop a strategy for each of the newly-signed draft prospects. Weeks later, we learned that the team is developing specialized instruction camps that focus on things like pitch design or other specific skill development. This is something other teams, like the Dodgers, Cubs, Astros and Yankees, implemented in earlier years.
Analytics started to beef up in 2020 just before A. J. Hinch was hired. Was it planned? Did the Tigers have a feeling that Hinch would come to Detroit and they needed to do something? Or was it something else?
Who gave the green light? Or more likely, the push?
The first sign that things were changing was the hiring of Hinch and his hand-picked coaches. All of whom believed and practiced analytics. All of them with successful track records of communicating advanced information to players.
The second sign was the demotion of David Chadd and Dave Littlefield and the promotion of Menzin and Santori. One can assume that the former group was part of the “senior staff” who hadn’t bought into the analytics department. They were followed out the door by a dozen similar “old school” managers, coaches and scouts.
Next up? Ryan Garko and Gabe Ribas were hired.
So, 6 years later, who was responsible for finally making the changes?
We’ve got 3 possible suspects.
The first could be Al Avila himself. Maybe he got to the point where he realized his reputation and job were on the line. Or maybe, in true Tigers fashion, there was no sense of urgency until now.
Maybe he wanted to do this years earlier, but was never given the money to do it until now.
Maybe it was A. J. Hinch. It’s not hard to think that as soon as Hinch was fired from Houston that the Tigers had a good chance of landing him considering his close friendship with Scott Bream. Maybe that’s why they started beefing up analytics in 2020. They knew that Hinch wouldn’t come unless they had a viable department and plan.
And the massive cleaning out of the old-school clique? It’s not hard to imagine the Tigers taking that final leap as they watched Hinch perform miracles with the roster this year. Once A. J. proved himself, it was time for the Front Office to move – and improve.
Then there’s the third option. And one I believe is the most likely.
Chris Ilitch.
Yes, folks, this is not a typo.
It’s not a stretch to think that when he took over from his dad, that the priority was clearing out the financial mess he was left. Undoing the operating losses (once ranked tops in MLB), cutting expenses and righting the ship financially.
Maybe that’s why the team didn’t invest in analytics until recently.
As you know, Chris has an MBA and under his leadership, his family became tied with the Mets Steve Cohen for the #1 richest family in MLB. He knows what’s he doing.
And with his degree and advisors, combined with his seat on Rob Manfred’s Executive Committee, he learned that analytics are the most cost-effective system in baseball. That analytics maximize performance and minimize the dollars spent.
Isn’t this what a smart, financially-savvy person would do?
You betcha.
And that’s what we heard from the Tigers in their recent press conference about the probability of giving out more massive contracts. They are telling us now that they refuse to be hamstrung by them going forward.
No more lengthy, record-setting contracts to players who end up being albatrosses around the team’s neck. Because analytics is here to tell us that almost all of these contracts aren’t sound moves.
Who exactly was the catalyst may never be known. But the person who finally pulled the trigger and brought the Tigers into the 21st Century by breaking up the 20-30 year old clique deserves a medal.
What did you miss on our Twitter feed yesterday?
- By sheer coincidence, the Tigers are looking to hire more employees for their analytics department. What areas?
- How many Tigers are arbitration eligible this year? We’ve got the complete list and their projected salaries.
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The decision to modernize Tigers management was made by Al Avila, supported by Chris Ilitch and A.J.Hinch. Remember that Al Avila inherited a faulty player-acquisition system (expensive FAs), an inept manager (Brad A.), and a mind-the-store pat on the back in being promoted from within, rather than being sought from elsewhere in MLB. Now, with the player-acquisition system modernized and a highly capable manager hired, Avila was finally free and confident enough to act. Think how lucky the Tigers are that Houston created its sign-stealing scandal.
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Holly, you are so close. The impetus came from A.J.Hinch with Ilitch consent. The catalyst was from when the Red Wings [Ilitch] hired Steve Yzerman to run his hockey team. Yzerman sat down with Chris Ilitch and discussed in depth Analytics and how they were an indispensable tool and essential to success in cost cutting and effective modern day Sports Management. I still remember Ilitch stating he was intrigued by that discussion of analytics.
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What was the Red Wing management approach from 1986-87 to the 2010-11 season when the pre-analytical Wings finished first or second in the Norris/Central Division 22 times in 24 years and winning the Stanley Cup four times?
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I have really been waiting for this article Holly, so thank you very much for writing it.(great title btw). I whole heartedly agree with your #3 option, that the impetus for modernization was driven by Chris Ilitch and his desire for a cost efficient way to run the operation. Perhaps Al Avila got to keep his job by agreeing to finally modernize the Tiger front office around the Analytics Department and to make key personnel moves starting with the hire of Hinch.
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Chris may be smart about finances, but knows little about major league baseball and the wherewithall to manage it successfully. That is evident in his hiring of Avilla. The hiring of A.J. Hinch is what put this team on the right path to success, and I do believe that Chris should get credit for that. If Ilitch can now keep A.J. happy, and give him more autonomy and authority, the sky’s the limit. But more management changes are needed, and the most important is replacing Avilla.
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Yes, keeping AJ Hinch happy should be a top priority. He dropped into the Tigers’ lap, and that luck should be cherished. A fine film on MLB analytics is Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, the story of Billy Beane’s application of complex stats to the 2002 Oakland Athletics, based on the book by Michael Lewis..
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I have to point out Oakland has never won the American League pennant since the much-heralded advent of analytics in 2002. In fact, Oakland has not won the pennant since 1990. Old school Detroit, meanwhile, won the pennant in 2006 (sweeping the Athletics in four games, outscoring them 22-9) and 2012 (sweeping the Yankees in four games, outscoring them 19-6).
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Chris Ilitch didn’t hire Al Avila, Mike Ilitch promoted him from within when he dumped Dave D. Al promptly made what was to become two critical mistakes. He gave his lieutenants new long term contracts(5 yrs.?), and he kept Ausmus. As a result, the Tiger Way manual fell by the wayside and the Analytics Department’s undermanned existence was further buried under the weight of Al’s ‘senior’ management including Jim Leyland who remained “Special Assistant” to the GM.
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And send Leyland looking at the farm teams, or out to pasture.
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I vote out to pasture:-)
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Given the glacial pace at which the organization has moved into analytics, I am not exactly crowning born-on-third-base Chris Illitch as the king of innovation. I am, however, intrigued by Nick M.’s suggestion that the Wings have shown him the way of smart investment in analytics. I think Illitch’s desire to turn the Tigers, Wings and probably Pistons into a streaming service is likely the driving force. Good teams would help sell this product.
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If you look at the timeline, Nick’s suggestion makes sense. Yzerman came back to the Wings in April ‘19 and, by early 2020, things were starting to slowly and quietly change in the background for the Tigers. Then, despite the other interviews, they targeted Hinch, who quickly proved his point with the good coaching/analytics combo. Chris liked what he saw, told Al to get a move on, and now change is quickly moving forward.
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You could be right, but as Holly pointed out we may never know who or what was behind the changes in 2020 that resulted in Hinch’s hire, As the old adage goes, following the money may provide the simplest answer which is usually the correct one Chris Ilitch had to realize how quickly the millions he was investing in high draft choices and IFA’s could be flushed down the drain along with the profits to be made. He must have also realized that Analytics held the key to making profits instead of losses and demanded results from AA who decided he had to get out of the way and make the requested changes.
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Great article Holly, your investigative reporting is par exsalonce. I too see the biggest change in rhetoric and promise from CI and believe he was the catalyst. I believe both CI and AA saw in AJ a man with a plan with resources to enact it that previously was not seen. I believe the ill-fated “Tigerway” has been replaced by AJ’S culture change; a change that will be enhanced by foundational changes spear-headed by Garko’s player and coach development system.
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I think Holly got it mostly correct. Chris inherited two problematic franchises in the Wings and Tigers. Being a businessman who loves hockey, he was partial to the Wings and initially thought of selling the Tigers to fund his other interests. But he changed his mind after analyzing the profit potential of the Tigers and being pressured and challenged by TT – so it’s actually Holly’s doing.
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😉
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I agree with Tommy & until AA proves that he can be competent (outside of slam dunk draft picks) & CI actually spends $ on real FA I remain skeptical but thank god we got AJ and after his managing days are over he needs to be a GM (hopefully for the Tigers) too bad he can’t have a dual position of GM/Manager but guessing that hasn’t happened before but I could be wrong as 100 years ago was a much different game where they’re were manager/players.
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When you look at the quality baseball being played in the playoffs, you can see how far away from serious contention the Tigers are, analytics or not. We need new and better players not algorithms. that produce such questionable things as WAR, launch angle, and exit velocity.
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