THERE’S A REASON FOR EVERYTHING

By:  Holly Horning

In an interview the other day, Alex Avila disclosed that his father, Tigers’ GM, Al Avila, had broached the subject about him returning to Detroit. In the end though, Alex said he still wanted to pursue getting that ring, which is why he opted instead to sign with the Washington Nationals.

And you can’t blame him at all. He’s watched all of his former Tiger battery mates – Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Anibal Sanchez and David Price – get their coveted pieces of jewelry. All with other teams.

His poor dad just can’t get a break.

Speaking of which, if you read the national baseball reports, especially the articles on the Tigers, Al Avila is quite the topic of conversation in the social media forums attached to those articles. The fans come from varied backgrounds and not necessarily from the Michigan area nor even as Tiger fans. And because these reports are written by national, not local, journalists, those who comment on their articles are really fans of baseball and not just of the Tigers.

Their comments, therefore, are wider in scope, less biased and take into account what they also see going on with other teams. But there is an overall characteristic they all share.

Let’s put it this way. Very few of them are fans of the Tigers’ current GM.

In their comments, they all point to Avila’s extensive failed track record. The one exception being the trade that brought Jeimer Candelario to Detroit. And it’s pretty damning when MLB Radio and TV both voted on the best trade in baseball covering the last decade. Sending Justin Verlander, another player and $16 mill to the Houston Astros for Jake Rogers, Franklin Perez and Daz Cameron.

That “best” trade was attributed to Houston’s Front Office, not Detroit’s. More than one analyst described the move as an “absolute theft.”

Those fans who also comment in the national papers repeatedly point to the attempt to flip one-year free agents to other teams that failed due to those players getting injured. All 4 of them last year and at least one per year in previous seasons. Overall, a failed rate of successful flipping.

But the one statement I read all the time? Those fans who wonder why the Tigers have not hired a new GM. Comments such as “Every other team in MLB would have fired him (Avila) at least several years ago. Every.single.one.”

Which brings us to why? Why does Al Avila continue in his role?

Fans aren’t dumb. They see what is going on despite the best attempts of the 2 major Detroit dailies. And the comments are reaching a fever pitch.

Don’t say it’s because Al’s rebuilding and we shouldn’t expect to see anything yet. A process that has been going on now for 5-7 years with no tangible end in sight. On average, it takes a team 4 years (including the Astros) to rebuild to competitive status. The Tigers are on a pace to at least double that average timeline.

And this year, the newest projections by an MLB-related firm have Detroit losing 105 games this year. Partially due to their roster but also because other teams have done much more with theirs.

Shouldn’t we be able to see some measurable progress by now? Some hope? Something more than promises?

If you look to owner Chris Ilitch, you don’t see tangible support for his GM other than the required lip service offered twice a year.

So many are puzzled as to why Al was given a contract extension. The only GM extension in MLB that is secret with no known contract length. And a press conference that was announced with 1 hour notice late on a Friday afternoon during the Fourth of July weekend. This is what you do when you are embarrassed to make the announcement and know that it will generate significant anger from fans and become a topic on the sports shows.

Naturally, you’d want as few people to attend as possible, especially the national media who look at the Tigers without those local rose-colored glasses.

Even Mr. Ilitch didn’t attend. He made Al himself announce his own extension. Talk about awkward……

This doesn’t exactly scream support for your GM. It does however indicate a desire to stay as distanced as possible from the team and the people who run it.

So why does Chris Ilitch continue to endorse the same leadership of his baseball team despite the less-than-acceptable results so far?

Contrary to what some desperately want to believe, there is no concrete evidence that ownership authentically believes Avila and Co. are doing a good job. And Chris is not incompetent. He’s also not blind. He’s a very smart man and he knows exactly what he is doing.

He is getting the results he desires when you break it all down. There are factors that are influencing him that go beyond the capabilities of the GM and his Front Office.

Let’s identify the major ones. The ones that support the long-term secret contract extension of a GM with a poor track record.

FAMILY RELATIONSHIP

It’s been widely reported that Mr. I and Al were very close and that Mr. I treated him like a son. Even preferring Al over Dave Dombrowski. That relationship could extend to the entire family. In most families, you don’t fire your “brother.”

LOYALTY

The Tigers are loyal to a fault. They keep failed managers, coaches and other personnel well beyond their expiration date and even take them back after they’ve been fired by other teams. They’ve routinely hire their former pals who have been languishing on the employment lines for 2 or more years. Unless you utter racially-insensitive comments or criticize Tiger management, you can be assured of keeping your job for years to come, no matter the track record.

HIRING EXPENSES

It costs a lot to find, interview, hire and get new GMs up-to-speed. And after you have a new GM, he will have to hire his own new team. The owner ends up having to pay two sets of Front Office salaries – the more expensive newer personnel and that of the remaining contracts of the former office. It’s been reported that Avila is one of MLB’s least expensive GMs and any new GM would demand a much higher salary.

CURRENT EVENTS

The pandemic has left sports in a financial hole and the uncertainty of the future and return to normal have put many things on hold. Including moving forward with changes, like personnel.

Likewise, the upcoming CBA is widely expected to result in a shutdown of the game next year. Very few teams are going to make significant changes to their organizations until they know more about what will happen in the ever-increasing feud between owners and players.

THE GM’S ROLE

We don’t know Chris’ real priorities for the team. Is it a rebuild? Is it a return to doing “just enough”? Is it stripping down the team in order to maximize profits? It may be hard-to-impossible to get a talented GM or up-and-comer to accept a role in which he won’t be able to use his skills in planning for success.

A GM can only do as the owner tells him and can only work with the resources he is given. And taking a job where you are the caregiver, instead of a manager, doesn’t look very good on a resume when you want another GM job.

THE FALL GUY

All GMs know that one of their primary jobs is to protect the owner from any negative impressions or hits. All the problems fans and others notice are seen as a reflection upon the GM, not the head guy. And when things go south, it’s the GM who gets the blame. When salaries are dumped, when payroll is slashed, when favorites are traded and when performance goes in the toilet, fans always look to the fall guy, not the owner.

But when you remove that GM, the spotlight increasingly turns to ownership. And if the next GM he hires falls out of favor, then fans start to wonder if the owner is really the problem.

PRIORITIES

Is Ilitch’s priority to build a winning team, a passable team or to maximize profits? If we exclude the pandemic season, the Tigers started making a profit one year after Chris took over from his father and continued until last year’s shortened season without fans. You don’t get to be tied for MLB’s #1 richest owner unless there is a concerted effort to focus on the bottom line. People with that much money have a real talent for making it. And a real talent for saving it.

PREPARATION FOR SELLING

What a difference a year makes. After multiple pieces of evidence appeared, indicating that the Tigers were exploring a sale, their top candidate developed serious long-term medical problems and then the pandemic hit.

The sports world is in unchartered territory at the moment given all the unknowns when it comes to putting fans, if they are even willing to return, back in the stands. Unless the team, like the Mets recently, are about to go under, owners have hit the pause button on selling their teams until life returns to normal, fans are back and new owners can be guaranteed that revenue will return to normal.

Owners want to sell high so expect any thought of selling to be put on the back burner for at least 2 years. No one is going to sell a team until the expected revenue levels return. No one is going to buy a team until they know what to expect in revenue.

Selling a team is a long, labor-intensive process. Financials have to be put in order, rosters have to be trimmed and improved, attendance figures have to be ideal – along with many other factors. Generally a minimum of 2 years of prep, 1-2 more to find a buyer and then app. 8 months involved in the approval process by MLB.

Today, we’re probably looking at another 3-5 years. And as we’re currently seeing, anything can happen to disrupt the process or even change the direction.

So when your GM has a contract of unknown, possibly open-ended, length, it’s an attractive detail for a potential buyer and a convenience for the current owner. It means a new owner isn’t on the hook for a contract of a GM they don’t intend to keep. It may also mean that they won’t have to pay off other Front Office executives they intend on firing.

There were reports that Chris Ilitch didn’t want to fire Brad Ausmus because it would have meant paying the salaries of two managers at the same time. Logically, he could have applied a flexible contract extension with Al that would avoid having to pay 2 GMs. Only time will tell.

So which one of these 8 factors is the reason why Al Avila continues in his GM role? Truth is, it may be likely that all of them are playing a role.

And while the pandemic has created problems and financial loss for every team in MLB, it’s also served as a diversion to the Tigers’ rebuild. It’s given everyone more time. More time avoiding the hard questions and spotlight that will inevitably come unless significant changes are made.

And if things don’t improve enough, how much longer until hands are forced and changes are made?

As long as the Tigers continue to promise a return to “competiveness” (and fans buy into it), pull in enough attendees and continue to turn a profit, don’t expect personnel changes to be made. Or until a new owner is introduced.

What did you miss on the Totally Tigers Twitter feed yesterday?

–        Hall of Famer Ernie Banks:  “Spring Training means …”

–       Yet another projection on the Tigers W/L record for 2021.  Ouch.

–      One perspective on Nomar Mazara and how you can struggle with what seems like perfection.

–       Tigers must decide the best time to sign another pitcher.  Is it now?

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