BASEBALL’S BETTER BLUEPRINT

By:  Holly Horning

What do you remember when you think of the 2006 season?

Yes, it was the first year of many that the Detroit Tigers became relevant again. It was also the first year that the Tampa Bay Rays had their new majority owner, Stuart Sternberg.

Two teams that both went up at the same time, but only one came back down.

Much is being written about how Tampa Bay has been able to get so much more out of so little. But it goes much deeper than that.

The Rays’ story is one about leadership, hiring top talent in the Front Office and being innovative. Three things that the Tigers don’t have.

First, let’s put their performances into perspective using the benchmark years from 2006 through 2020.


Seasons below .500

Rays – 4 (including first 2 years under new ownership/management with .420 and .475)

Tigers – 7 (including 3 years with .200+ and .300+ records)

Seasons over .500

Rays – 11

Tigers – 9


Playoff years

Rays – 6

Tigers – 5


World Series appearances

Rays – 2

Tigers – 2


And the differences are further highlighted because the Rays play in MLB’s toughest division and compete against the payroll-heavy Yankees and Red Sox.

To further see the differences between these 2 teams, let’s now look at payroll and which team had the better win-loss record (indicated with **) for each year. (We are purposely excluding 2020 given the short season and pro-rated salaries.)


2006

Rays – $35 mill

Tigers – $83 mill **


2007

Rays – $24 mill

Tigers – $95 mill **


2008

Rays – $22 mill **

Tigers – $128 mill


2009

Rays – $63 mill

Tigers – $115 mill ** (barely)


2010

Rays – $72 mill **

Tigers – $123 mill


2011

Rays – $42 mill

Tigers – $106 mill ** (barely)


2012

Rays – $64 mill **

Tigers – $132 mill


2013

Rays – $58 mill

Tigers – $148 mill ** (barely)


2014

Rays – $77 mill

Tigers – $162 mill **


2015

Rays – $76 mill **

Tigers – $174 mill


2016

Rays – $74 mill

Tigers – #172 mill **


2017

Rays – $55 mill **

Tigers – $169 mill


2018

Rays – $79 mill **

Tigers – $130 mill


2019

Rays – $49 mill **

Tigers – $98 mill


Fourteen years. For 7 of those years, the Rays had the better record. For the other 7, the Tigers did, although 2 of those years were essentially a tie. And then there were the first 2 years of building under a new owner for the Rays. And if we do include 2020, the Rays also had the lower payroll by far along with MLB’s best record.

Advantage, Rays.

For the last 12 years, Tampa Bay has the 5th best record in baseball at 1041 wins and 904 losses for a .535 winning percentage.

Even more remarkable is their payroll compared to the Tigers. Let’s look at the percentages spent in the years they had the better records.

2008 – 1/6th of Detroit payroll

2009 – almost 50% less than Detroit’s for a similar record

2010 – 59% of Detroit’s payroll

2011 – 2.5 times less than Detroit’s for a similar record

2012 – less than half of Detroit’s

2013 – over 2.5 times less than Detroit’s for a similar record

2015 – over 2.33 times less than Detroit’s

2017 – less than one-third of Detroit’s payroll

2018 – slightly less than half of Detroit’s payroll

2019 – half of Detroit’s payroll

In summary, out of 14 years, Tampa Bay had better records with significantly less payroll in 10 of those years. If you remove the first 2 years due to revamping because of new ownership and management, then it jumps to 10 out of 12 years.

And get this. Tampa Bay doesn’t rebuild under this new owner. The team’s motto is to “break a window” instead of “burning the house down.”

This is where it starts. The owner. He creates the vision and hires the right talent. And Sternberg took a Shop-Vac, not just a broom, to the organization when he took over.

It started with hiring Andrew Friedman as his GM. Friedman hired Chaim Bloom, James Click, Erik Neander and others.

In this year’s final 4 playoff teams, all 4 are represented by Friedman’s protégés: Neander with the Rays, Click with the Astros, Anthopoulos with the Braves and ironically, Friedman with the Dodgers. He’ll be going up against his old organization and his former hires.

Farhan Zaidi worked for Friedman. So did Joe Maddon, Dave Martinez, Charlie Montoyo and Rocco Baldelli.

And just which stellar Front Office execs have the Tigers hired? Would you really include Dave Dombrowski who only worked for teams with the largest wallets? Would Dave have done a successful job if he only had half the payroll? When he left Montreal, Florida, Detroit and Boston, did he leave them in good shape? You know the answer to that one.

On the other hand, which Tigers Front Office execs have been lured away from other teams since Trader Dave was hired?

Everyone within their Front Office is among the oldest in baseball. And as has been written here many times before, this group has been together going all the way back to Montreal and the Marlins. And for some like Avila, Littlefield, Leyland and more, there’s that highway that flows freely between Detroit and Pittsburgh.

In contrast, Friedman got his job when he was in his 30’s. He hired younger people with a variety of experience and backgrounds. He saw talent before the rest of MLB did.

And this is just another reason why the team’s new managerial hire will tell volumes about the mindset of the Tigers. From which team will he come? Will he be older or younger? Will he have those ties to the Tigers?

Or will he come from a team that is run by a disciple of Andrew Friedman?

Let’s hope for the latter.


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23 thoughts on “BASEBALL’S BETTER BLUEPRINT

  1. Hiring a Friedman related manager won’t make a bit of difference if the same suspects are still in charge of the front office. It’s like you’re expecting Wolfgang Puck to make you a 5 star meal and all he has to work with is what’s behind the counter at McDonald’s.

    Liked by 6 people

    • Hi, Spartan – A Friedman disciple, of course, won’t change the organization. At least not just yet. But he will make a big difference in how the manager and coaches relate to the analytics department and how information is passed along to the players and encouraged. It will also make a difference when the manager and GM discuss the player needs. It’s a small step, but a step nonetheless and it will be a symbol that the Front Office is open to making changes. I’ll welcome that step, no matter how small. – Holly

      Liked by 4 people

  2. Keep the Rays. Give me the Cardinals. Baseball royalty… the most consistent winning tradition for the past two decades with an actual fan base, a decent park, and ownership that does not threaten to leave town.

    Liked by 4 people

  3. I do believe that most of us here have already determined that the dysfunction in the organization comes, as with most companies, from the top down. We all know the solution but it’s out of our hands.

    Liked by 6 people

  4. I am with Spartan – I said this the other day, but I really don’t care who they hire as manager at this point. The organization desperately needs to be fixed from the top down. A coaching staff of Stengel, Anderson, Mack, and McGraw would be fortunate to squeeze a .500 record out of roster assembled by Avila. TB has an organizational philosophy that starts with innovation and the Tigers have Dombrowski’s B team running the show.

    Liked by 7 people

  5. I have a somewhat higher regard for Dombrowski. He is one of the most astute traders I ever saw. He got Carlos Guillen, Placido Polanco, and Max Scherzer for almost nothing in return. Yes, he won with a high payroll, but a lot of guys fail to win with a high payroll.

    Liked by 6 people

    • Two things I really admire about Dave D – he brought a great deal class to the organization and he knew talent. The Tigers went from being a bush league bottom dwelling operation to the World Series in 4 years under his watch. The trades he made for Polanco and Guillen were brilliant. I know he typically got to the World Series with a bloated budget, but he had more hits than misses in my opinion.

      Liked by 3 people

  6. Well, one area I would love to see improve is in the scouting department and international draft. We are very weak in determining future talent. Tampa has boatloads of young guys and I bet they aren’t related to front office staff. We are abysmal in that area, especially after the 1st round. They need to clean house.

    Liked by 7 people

  7. Looks like Holly is endorsing AJ Hinich for the Tiger’s manager. Right background and he went through a similar rebuild with the Astros (although with a better front office.) He certainly uses analytics and latest technology, has been successful developing young players. GO AJ!!!

    Like

    • Hi, Tony – Oh, you should know me better than that! Honor and integrity are at the top of my list for anyone – and the first hurdle. Hinch is not on my list because of the cheating and his inability to control the clubhouse. We’ve already been through the latter with Brad Ausmus and don’t need to see it again. Besides, Miggy would have Hinch for lunch! 🙂 – Holly

      Liked by 3 people

      • I was just trolling you a bit. I also wouldn’t want AJ’s baggage but wonder if CI will ever decide to attempt to fix the situation. All the focus on a new manager seems like misdirection to me. If you really want to change you must start with a new GM with ownership backing to replace anyone in the organization. Or if you think JL’s way is best give him the GM job.

        Liked by 2 people

      • I like your remark Tony, but I doubt if they’ll officially put JL in that slot. That would formally put him in a spot of accountability versus the vague and nebulous special assistant role where he can pull all the strings with Al taking all the heat in his lame way. Unless JL is gone even a strong Friedman-bred hire would stand little chance of surviving in their culture, IMO.

        Liked by 2 people

  8. Great analysis Holly – and great comments as well. The Tiger organization has definitely grown stale and complacent in a less competitive division. But the pervasive influence of Jim Leyland and his cronies is a huge factor. Their stubborn and arcane ways are like a “black hole” whose density has trapped not one, but TWO teams – Detroit and Pittsburgh – in their gravitational field with no chance of escape until the whole thing blows up.

    Liked by 4 people

  9. I am a retired numbers guy Holly (CPA), and I really enjoyed todays blog. It definitely puts a perspective on on things that I haven’t seen before. Do you have help coming up with these ideas? I do know you work full-time. At least I think you do.

    Liked by 4 people

    • HI, Sprocket – Thanks for the kind words. Yes, I work full-time with my own company but I am also head zookeeper at our once-again full house due to the pandemic. Not sure which job is more demanding. As for the ideas, yes, I have no shortage of topics! I have a file folder with about 8 major categories and over 100 ideas. Some of them are a little old now. I guess I need to go clean out the Ausmus folder. 🙂 – Holly

      Liked by 3 people

      • Kudos, Holly, on the zookeeper role. I’m afraid many of us “retirees” can relate to extra duties with our “kids” having to work and our grandchildren unable to attend school. Some of us are working harder now than when we had a career – but that’s what family is for.

        Liked by 1 person

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