TRADING AND TRIGGER TROUBLES

By:  Holly Horning

Baseball experienced its first normal moment in this very strange “season” on Monday. The Detroit Tigers traded Cameron Maybin, for the third time, to the Cubs.

Do you think that when Maybin signs with Detroit, he probably doesn’t unpack his luggage?

The Tigers made 1 trade this deadline in a season of uncertainty. There were rumors of other teams interested in Norris, Jones, Schoop and a few others, but in the end, they had to keep the tradition alive by bidding “adieu” to Cameron.

And maybe, this is all a good thing. Maybe the best trades are the ones you don’t make.

Especially if you’re Al Avila.

On Sunday, I was treated to a double dose of Al’s trading prowess courtesy of MLB Radio and Fangraphs. Enough that it took every bit of energy to keep myself from rolling the car as I was driving home from vacation.

First, a refresher. Here are Avila’s trades so far in his tenure as GM:

– J.D. Martinez traded for Sergio Alcantara, Jose King and Dawel Lugo

– Alex Avila and Justin Wilson for Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Paredes

– Justin Upton for Grayson Long and Elvin Rodriquez

– Justin Verlander, Juan Ramirez and cash for Daz Cameron, Jake Rogers and Franklin Perez (Voted #1 best trade of the last decade in favor of the Astros.)

– Ian Kinsler traded for Wilkel Hernandez and Troy Montgomery

– Leonys Martin and Kyle Dowdy traded for Willi Castro

– Mike Fiers traded for Nolan Blackwood and Logan Shore

– Nick Castellanos and cash traded for Alex Lange and Paul Richan

– Shane Greene traded for Joey Wentz and Travis Demeritte

Granted, there are still a few players with performance records still to be determined. But overall, save one, the other 8 trades Avila made are near or complete disasters.

And it’s not just me saying this. Fangraphs is, as well.

They have written that the teams who acquired players from the Tigers gained a 29.7 bWAR. The Tigers? They got 0.4 bWAR in return.

Yes, you read that right.

Maybe we should be breathing a sigh of relief after Monday’s deadline that Al didn’t trade more players.

Depending upon which media publications you read, most of the local Detroit beat writers claimed that the Tigers weren’t making trades because they wanted to keep the team together for a playoff push.

Al Avila claimed that he wasn’t going to make a trade unless the return was worth it.

Now he says it!

But the national media said on Sunday that, quite frankly, any players the Tigers currently have available would not be worth much on the trading block. Even Jonathan Schoop.

And if you combined player value and this year’s limitations, trading would indeed be a difficult task this year. Due to the inability for scouts to work in 2020 (and forcing teams to go solely on last year’s stats) and the trading pool strictly limited to each team’s 60 player roster.

The former managers/GMs-turned media analysts all agreed that Avila has consistently waited too long or failed to see the market for trading Tigers. They point to Michael Fulmer who should have been traded at least 2 years ago.

The Cubs had offered Javier Baez while the Astros offered Alex Bregman for Fulmer.

Ouch.

Daniel Norris is another one who had other teams interested but injury and his questionable position within the pitching roster has dampened enthusiasm.

And then there is Matthew Boyd. The Tigers have been trying to trade him for almost 3 years now with other teams universally saying that their ask was “prohibitive”. Avila had asked the Yankees for Gleyber Torres. Brian Cashman, their GM, stated that the proposal was beyond ridiculous.

Which brings us to ask which executives within the Front Office are involved in negotiating trades. It has been reported that Avila leans heavily upon a group of long-time associates going back to Pittsburgh and Miami including Dave Littlefield.

Littlefield was the Pirates GM and earned a reputation throughout MLB as a “difficult trading partner” with demands that “were often seen as grossly excessive” per reports in both the Pittsburgh and Chicago papers.

Doesn’t this sound similar to what is going on in Detroit now?

But now, let’s get back to Boyd…..

All of the analysts are in agreement that Boyd has zero value currently to other teams.

At least 3 opportunities to build the roster in which the Tigers over-asked or failed to pull the trigger on time.

And now, they have 3 pitchers who are making a combined $11 million per year. Because of arbitration, they will be earning even more next year.

After this season, they are the team’s most expensive players after Miggy. And it will get very complicated now that Mize, Skubal, Alexander et al are expected to fill the rotation spots going forward. Each of these rookies pulling in a mere $563,500.

Is the team going to continue to pay Fulmer, Norris and Boyd all these millions for mediocre performance? Have they now reached the point where they may simply be forced to give them away or allow them to walk?

Combine these lost opportunities with the significant changes going on in the minor leagues. It is expected that MLB, going forward, will only agree on a maximum of 10 draft rounds. Not 40. The streams of prospects for the Tigers are drying up and the repeated failures by this Front Office to capitalize on trading talent at the right time is now just even more magnified.

And it doesn’t bode well for this rebuild.

The Tigers struck out trying to trade Fulmer, Norris and Boyd. In baseball, three strikes mean you’re out.

Shouldn’t the same rule apply to the decision-makers in the Front Office as well?

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