THE FIRST TEST

by Holly Horning

The expiration date of the Harris Honeymoon is right around the corner.

When the new PoBo was hired at the end of 2022, a grace period was automatically attached to it.  Generally, GMs/PoBos get at least a year – even slightly longer – because they need to get to know their new organization, perform a deep dive into assessing what ails the organization and developing a plan on how to fix it.

Owners give their PoBos/GMs a much longer leash because of the enormity of the job.  The industry standard contract for these people is 5 years.

But fans don’t understand just how much there is to do and start calling out the new guy, often even within that first year.

In general, many fans know that the first year of having a new Front Office isn’t going to be that exciting because everyone is getting up to speed and stabilizing the franchise.  And that was the case with the Tigers’ 2023 season.

But now it’s a year later and fans are expecting to see tangible change.  Something they can point to that will officially make a statement about the capabilities of the new people in charge.  They don’t want to have to sit on their hands for another season.

It’s important for them to see that this new group isn’t at all like the one they just replaced. 

They need to see purpose.  They need to see action.

Right now, that trigger point is upon us.

Even though we were given a head’s up, the Tigers’ concern about the lack of offense is front and center on the radar screen. 

Don’t let those 2 games in Arizona over the weekend fool you.  That’s unusual for any team, even those who have prolific offense.

We knew that this year’s Tigers would struggle offensively.  When you have a lineup that consists of only 2 veterans with the rest either rookies or inexperienced hitters, there are going to be more dry spells than good.

But reality has a way of highlighting the weaknesses even though we were told to expect what we’re seeing.

We just weren’t expecting it to get so ugly.

I’m referring to all those games in which the Tigers were shut out or only managed 1 measly run.  And all of it underscored by the superb and elite performances of 3 pitchers who have little to show for their efforts in the win column.  Tarik Skubal the exception.

This story has hit the national media.  It’s that big.

And it’s turned the lack of offense into Scott Harris’ first crisis that needs solving.

Harris cannot sit back and allow this to continue.  He’s got to find a solution or more likely at least mitigate what is going on. 

But we understand that he inherited a franchise with few viable resources, knowing that he and the new group would have to build them.  The problem though is that it all takes time.

If solving offense issues was easy, the Tigers would have already enacted them.

Just a couple weeks ago, Detroit was sitting above .500 and in 2nd place, just a couple games out of 1st place.  They were among the top 7 best performing teams. 

Now, they been struggling to stay at .500, sit in 4th place and 6.5 games out (through Sunday’s games).  They are currently the 15th best performing franchise.

Their record in May so far shows a win-loss record of .375.

And it all happened quickly.  The question to ask is whether this team will continue to sink at the current rate, whether they can slow or even stop the skid.

The bottom line is that Harris needs this team to put up better numbers than last year.

Ownership and the business side of the organization needs this team to perform better, esp. early in the year because it helps dictate how fast those turnstiles move.

Every team has a couple hitters who struggle at the plate.  But the rest of their lineup is capable of messing with opponents despite the bottom of the order.

In the Tigers’ case, they don’t have enough formidable hitters.  Opponents have an easier time pitching around them and as a result, even the best hitters are being put at a disadvantage because there is no one else to protect them at the plate.

And this is a significant contributing factor to the issue surrounding the team’s starting pitching.  They are getting next to nothing in run support.

Reese Olson is in the national news now because of the tremendous stats he is putting up and yet not even being rewarded with a single win (through Sunday’s games).

Jack Flaherty just got his 1st win in 9 starts.  Ironically, he is within the top 5 in several pitching categories and recently tied a strikeout record set by Max Scherzer.

Only Tarik Skubal has emerged unscathed.

But you’ve got to believe that at least half of the SP staff is concerned.  When you consistently fail to get your teammates to back you, frustration is eventually going to reach your coach and manager.  Clubhouse dynamics may have the potential to change as well.

Eventually, the mental side of the game will change, too.  How many of these guys can continue to take the mound, pitch their hearts out and get little in return?  Every outing is going to take a little piece of their souls.

As we’ve been discussing in earlier Totally Tigers blogs, the options are limited.  The off-season had few solutions in the free agent market and the farm system is doing much better but it’s going to take more than a year or two for it to bear real and consistent fruit.

It’s going to be a process of waiting and watching the younger players develop or waiting until the off-season to bring in new talent.

The question to ask is whether the Tigers can wait.  Again.

This is a separate rebuild than the one under Al Avila, but fans have had the patience of Job and they rightfully should not have to be asked once again to watch this all slowly play out. Been there, done that for far too long.

All of this throws the ball back into Harris’ court. Via that process of elimination, the best option right now may be to start churning that lineup once again.

Ironically, some good results have been seen from previous efforts.  Injuries thrust Andy Ibanez into a bigger role recently and he delivered.  And when Ibanez himself got hurt, Wenceel Perez got called up.

And now he’s one of the team’s best performers.

Two players not on the team’s radar just weeks ago and now several of the biggest contributors.

Are there others?

What talent do the Tigers have in AAA that should be called up?  Harris has emphasized that prospects will get promoted when they are ready to face MLB levels.  They don’t want to set players back in their development if they get called up too soon.

But let’s face it, the risks are marginal right now simply because that offensive bar is set very low in Detroit.

A national article recently identified the 5 prospects who should be promoted right now.  And one of them is Jace Jung.

He was expected to see Detroit at some point this year but quite frankly, can and should the Tigers wait any longer?  Especially if they continue to play under .500 this month?

Jung is hitting well and continues to improve at the hot corner.  But it’s his position that could add an additional benefit in increasing the team’s offense.

Jung plays 3B.  Calling him up would allow Gio Urshela, who is one of the better hitters on the team, to move to SS which he has played off and on for 5 years.

It would also mean that Javy Baez would see less playing time.  As optimistic as I like to be, his “resurgence” last weekend is not expected to last.  Historically, Baez has always been a streaky hitter.  He’s not going to suddenly revert to the player he once was back in 2021.

And even though the season is still young, Baez’s defensive skills have also taken a tumble.  He is now a -2 DRS, down from the -1 and is the Tigers’ 2nd worst defender. Until recently, he was a plus defender.

And it’s no coincidence that the Tigers, their PR people and the beat writers are trying to keep him above water.  We are reading stories that quote A. J. Hinch about playing Baez “a lot.”  Articles about how things are changing with Baez’s hitting.  And even the tv announcers are telling us “all is well.”

None of it really true.  All of it done to protect the player and minimize public criticism.

But everything we’re seeing both at the plate and in the field makes for an easier decision to bring Jung up and to start mixing up the 3B/SS configuration.

But no matter what is done there, the most important thing we need to see is Scott Harris doing something.  Something different in order to get different results.

It may not work out but it’s important to see the Tigers being pro-active.  It’s his first real test as PoBO.

Is he going to allow this concern to fester all season or are fans going to be viewing him as a problem solver?

Does he have ideas?  Can he think outside the box?

Is he actively trying to make this team better?

And does he have a sense of urgency?

What he does – and when he does it – is going to tell us much more about the timeline this Front Office has in mind for making this team competitive.

Don’t see your comment? Comments are limited to a maximum of 3 sentences and must address the day’s topic. Please make sure to check out the other rules for posting under the link at the top of the page in order for your comments to be published.

THE BEST COMMENT FROM YESTERDAY’S BLOG:

from Andy: “I hate to suggest this, but we could use our plethora of strong pitching as a tool to help us trade away Baez—in other words, trade away a couple of pitchers and include Baez in the deal. Teams that don’t want Baez’s contract but do want some pitching might be willing to take both. But we might have to eat part of Baez’s contract.”

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