USE IT OR LOSE IT

By:  Holly Horning

It’s the same principle in theory.

You know, the one when you’re renovating your house and get lured into considering adding a fabulous spa-like bathroom with sunken tub or the ornate Italian gourmet stove that resembles the one from your favorite restaurant. You start to think how much they will enhance the quality of your life and decide to add them. But several years later, you realize that they have been largely ignored.

It’s the same with baseball teams. Just because your GM invests in specific resources or tools is no guarantee that they will be used. And if they are, they may not be used properly.

And over the past year+, my thoughts have come back to this theory more and more when it concerns the Tigers and analytics.

Are they actually using them?

And if they are using them, is everyone on board?

Are they using analytics effectively – and correctly?

I have my doubts.

But before we get into all of that, let’s clear up a few misconceptions about analytics.

– Just because you introduce them into your organization, doesn’t mean you are up to speed. It takes years to develop an advanced system. You can’t expect the Tigers, with a system that is barely 3 years old, to have the same level of performance or can compete with another team who has had them for over a decade.

– There is no cookie cutter analytics system. Each team will develop and incorporate elements, tools, machines and software programs that are specific to their needs. The leaders in analytics invent. The followers adopt their methods several years down the road, playing catch up.

– Each team’s analytics department has differing amounts of power and influence. Some simply exist, waiting to be used while others have significant power and the ability to dictate what manager and coaches will do.

– An analytics system doesn’t always offer the best answers or solutions that fit the team’s talent. It’s all about the talent that is running this department and how correctly they see the development and goals of the team.

And just because a team has an analytics department is no guarantee that they will have the most updated research or solutions. Case in point is the Tigers use of the shift this year, boasting about their league-leading 55.5%. The problem is that the teams known to have the best analytics started getting away from the shift as a superior defensive tool 2 years ago.

So what do we know about the Tigers?

We hear from Al Avila talk about the Tigers’ analytics department. But are their reports being followed? Does this department have any real power in the dugout? Or even in the Front Office?

There’s lots of evidence to suggest that their reports aren’t being taken as seriously as they should be.

Let’s review the evidence.

First of all, as teams adopted this tool, many reports were published citing the friction created between the manager and his staff with the geeks who run the programs. More than a couple teams admitted that studies sat on managers’ desks without being shared. And information was not being passed down to the players.

In most cases, it was the older managers who were reluctant to use this resource because the old phrase really is true – that you can’t teach old dogs new tricks. It’s hard to ask someone who was raised with a traditional baseball background to turn his back on the gut instincts he’s used for decades and embrace the cold, hard data.

In the Tigers’ case, Ron Gardenhire is the 5th oldest MLB manager but he’s separated from 3 above him, who are technically “older” by less than a year. Add into this, Detroit’s ranking as having MLB’s oldest coaching staff. Gardy’s top 4 lieutenants are all over 60 with another just about to hit the big 6-0.

The trend continues with the Front Office. Al Avila is MLB’s oldest GM at 62. He is almost twice as old as 6 other GMs who are in their 30’s. Twenty GMs are in their 40’s. Four are in their early 50’s. Avila is the only GM over the age of 60 and is a decade older than those 4 GMs.

Increasingly, this is a younger man’s game to manage given the complicated technology now running teams. An education that many over the age of 50 missed entirely.

How much of analytics does Al understand or support?

But the bigger question is how much does he push this team into fully embracing analytics?

From what we see and read in the media, it’s not encouraging. When you read a story here or there, it doesn’t mean much. But when you read multiple reports that involve the GM, his Front Office, manager and coaches, then it gets very real. And scary.

Here are a just a few of the stories that raise red flags:

– Last month, Ron Gardenhire let it slip that he resorted, for the first time, in allowing the analytics department to determine the batting order. Something that is SOP for most teams these days. But the Tigers analytics suggested that Jeimer Candalerio was the perfect fit for lead-off spot. It lasted all of 2 games. Keeping JaCoby Jones in the 9th spot is a whole ‘nother conversation……

– Justin Verlander gave the infamous interview back in 2018 about how the Astros use of analytics was heads and tails above the Tigers. He claimed that he walked into a new clubhouse with so many resources and levels of information he had never imagined.

– Jim Leyland is, once again, on recent record affirming his dislike of analytics. The same man who sits in the war room during the draft to help Avila make decisions about which prospects to choose. The same guy who was responsible for the signings of both Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison, which didn’t work out at all well. The same guy who is now based in Toledo and in charge of overseeing the young prospects’ development. How can the Tigers say they use analytics when they also rely upon Leyland’s advice?

– And with the news that more Tigers have been increasingly seeking outside hitting instruction (JaCoby Jones, Jake Rogers, Jeimer Candelario, etc.), the national media has written about Lloyd McClendon’s “outdated” hitting instruction of “swinging down” on the ball that flies directly against what analytics now tells us works best.

Analytics is just not used to determine how to play the game. It’s also used to predict a player’s future performance, durability and possible injury chances. And in these 3 cases, the facts don’t support it being used for such.

– Jordan Zimmermann was signed by Al Avila despite stats showing him starting to have problems, including decreasing velocity, a full 2 years (while still with the Nats) before the Tigers signed him.

– All of the Tigers 4 major free agent signings for 2019 (app. $20 mill of payroll) resulted in all 4 players going on the IL for most or all of the season.

– For 2020, Ivan Nova, was signed at age 33 and pitched all of 19 innings before being lost for the year.

Does this sound like a team that is committed to analytics? Or at least committed enough so that they achieve consistent results?

Al Avila wrote a letter to season ticket holders several years ago stating that he was “committed to beefing up (sic) the team’s analytics staff and is committed to using numbers to help it rebuild.”

But then he hired Ron Gardenhire who said “numbers lie a lot” and that he has a hard time believing in “all that stuff” – referring to analytics.

Does it sound like everyone is on the same page?

Does it appear that the analytics department has any real power? And if they do, is that information being passed down in the chain of command so that it reaches the decision-makers and the players?

That’s what it’s really about. It’s not enough to say you have something. You have to have a solid plan for using analytics and ensure that everyone within the organization is on board.

Otherwise, you’ll end up with inconsistent results, a lot of wasted money – and a slower, inefficient rebuild.

Totally Tigers loves your comments!  But please be aware that there are specific rules for posting and that comments may be edited in order to meet our specific requirements.  Responses are only published if they address today’s topic, are respectful and do not exceed the maximum 3-4 sentence response length.  Please become familiar with all of the rules at:  https://totallytigers.wordpress.com/commentsrules/.