THE BEST LAID PLANS….

by Holly Horning

It’s times like these that I turn to that great quote by Robbie Burns in To a Mouse:  “The best laid schemes o’mice an’ men.  Gang aft a-gley.”

In other words, no matter how carefully and thoughtfully you plan something out, it may still go wrong.

And that is what’s happening with the Detroit Tigers.

Scott Harris built this year’s roster built upon what was expected to go right.  As it turns out, it was wishful thinking.

A lot of assumptions.

Assumptions that the young talent he inherited would continue to ripen and play at a more experienced level.

Assumptions that a number of positions on the team would be filled.

Assumptions that rookies would start their careers and not struggle mightily.

Assumptions that run production would struggle occasionally.

Everything that could have gone wrong, did.  In spectacular fashion.

Spencer Torkelson hit rock bottom in both hitting and fielding, ranking dead last in OPS and DRS (for 1B) in all of MLB.  Now in Toledo, he’s continued to struggle and not expected to return this year.

After 3 months, Colt Keith is showing increased promise at the plate but his fielding ranks last in MLB for his position.

Javier Baez has fallen completely off the edge in both hitting and fielding.  He mans a position that is ranked last in MLB by a mile and costing this team wins.

Parker Meadows’ hitting went well below .100 before he was sent down.

And it took only a single injury to the team’s best hitter, Kerry Carpenter, for the entire offensive capability to go down the dumper.  That’s how vulnerable this roster is.

Before Sunday’s game, the Tigers had scored a total of 6 runs in 6 games.

In 76 games, they have scored 2 runs or less in 27 of them with a record of 4-23.  That is 35.5% of their games.

Now, in 77 games, they have scored 0-1 runs in 21 of those contests.

That’s not an occasional slump in hitting.

And if the Tigers trade away Mark Canha and/or Gio Urshela, it will only get worse.  Much worse.

Defensive capability is also dropping.  The Tigers now only have 4 positional players with plus defense.

Part of the reason is lack of depth.  Not enough players who can adequately play specific positions.  Too many players forced to play out of position – and commit errors or misplays.

Currently, the only players with singular positions are at catcher and 2B. Nowhere else.

The only defense up the middle is also behind the plate.  Nowhere else.

And the infield?  It’s beyond a mess.  Gio Urshela is the only viable fielder currently and he may be gone in a couple weeks via trade. After this year, he’s also a free agent.

The shortstop position is beyond horrific.  As I blogged last week, it is on a pace to set a historic record within MLB for poor play.  No other team has anywhere near the horrible defensive metrics of this position.

The Tigers have been picking up steam in their descent this year.  And if something isn’t done soon, it will get worse.  Significantly worse.

We’ve often used the definition of insanity in this blog to describe the inaction/inability of this organization historically to pull the trigger.

We excused Scott Harris last year as he was evaluating and taking inventory.  It appears he still is.

And this can’t go on.  It doesn’t matter that there is so much work to do.

It doesn’t matter that the Tigers are saying they still need to develop a foundation and core group of players before they supplement with free agents.

It doesn’t matter anymore that a careful evaluation and acquisition is the only way to move forward.

It’s not Harris’ fault this happened.  Blame it on Al Avila and his incompetent Front Office who took 8 years spinning the team’s wheels.

But now Harris is faced with the pressure of turning this team around.  The speed of fans streaming for the exits has picked up and he must right the ship as efficiently as possible.  He doesn’t have the luxury of taking his time anymore.

The clock that has been ticking has now turned into a bomb.

This is Harris’ first real test as the PoBO.  He’s got to stop over-analyzing and sticking to the strategy developed in the off-season.  Because now, it’s no longer working.

And it’s about to get worse.

It’s time to pivot.  Time to change gears.  Time to mix things up.

Because that’s what competent PoBO’s/GMs do.

Granted, there are limited options at this point.  But the Tigers need to decide if they are willing to end this year with a worse record than that from 2023 as their better players get traded at the deadline and the rest of the roster is likely to implode as a result.

They need to decide if it’s time to see what else is down in Toledo.  It’s never too early to determine what viable pieces you have for 2025.

So far, Wenceel Perez, Andy Ibanez – and to a lesser extent due to a small sample size – Justyn-Henry Malloy have played better than expected.

This roster needs some new additions.  Even if they are young and green.

It also needs subtractions until a suitable time comes along in which these players can be traded.

The #1 priority is DFA’ing Javy Baez – or more likely, keeping him on the IL as long as possible.  At this point, the Tigers are paying him to help lose games.  Literally, anyone would be better.  And it would send a message to the entire team that no one escapes accountability.

Let Ryan Kreidler take over the position full-time and let him gain some experience there.  The Tigers still haven’t had a good long look at his potential.  Maybe playing there for more than a couple games at a time would help him settle in.

Keeping Baez on at this point tells everyone that his salary and trying to avoid acknowledging what a bad signing it was are more important than winning.

The Tigers should also work towards finding long-term solutions for some infield spots.  As it stands now, only the catcher position is guaranteed for next year.  The rest of the slots are question marks for 2025.  It’s unfathomable that after all these years, the entire infield has no real solutions yet.

Doesn’t it make sense that they start working on finding potential answers for the next season now?  Like, right now?

Once Jace Jung gets back from the IL, why not put him back at 2B and move Keith to 1B?  That way, you get to see how well they may work together for next year.

It will also tell the Front Office whether Spencer Torkelson is part of the future – both either short- or long-term.  The Tigers have to make a decision on him and so far, it’s not looking good.  They can’t re-live this year again in 2025.

Remember that quote about insanity?

Overall, Scott Harris has to complete his evaluations on other Avila draft picks this season.  Too many of them continue to disappoint.

Matt Manning has been with the club for 9 years and got demoted this season.  The longer he stays with the team – and the older he gets – any trade value will continue to diminish.

Casey Mize is another.  Four years in Detroit with only 1 full season to show for it and nothing notable seen in his performance.  If we ignore how he fought the Tigers to get more money for this year despite not pitching (except part of 1 game) in 2023, the Tigers have a team-friendly option for next year if he has a break out 2024 season.  The $3 mill salary for next year may just be very appealing and low-risk for another team.

Like Torkelson, Mize’s position also doesn’t look very promising but he’ll be given the rest of the year to see if his recovery time from surgery is successful. 

Mize has already missed 2 years and so far this season, his speed is still down and pitch location has gone missing.  Trading him now maximizes his value before he becomes a rental.

What the Tigers really need is a PoBO/GM who is capable of pulling the trigger sooner rather than later.  Admit the poor draft choices/bad player development, cut your losses and move on.  Quickly. 

Because there is soooo much to do. So much that the 2 years he quoted as being needed before the team can sign free agents is a gross under-evaluation if the same pace of roster assembly is maintained.

The Tigers can’t afford to wait until the season is over to start building their 2025 roster.

Don’t see your comment? Comments are limited to a maximum of 3 sentences and must address the day’s topic. Please make sure to check out the other rules for posting under the link at the top of the page in order for your comments to be published.

THE BEST COMMENT FROM YESTERDAY’S BLOG:

from jkovach10e70ef76b: “I find myself wondering if Chris only really started paying close attention around 2021, beginning with his approval of Bream’s managerial choice, and followed by Hinch’s complaints about poor player development that, imo, led to Littlefield’s demotion and Garko’s hiring. That may also be when he started to doubt the family’s trust in Avila, which led to a rude awakening, and the firing of Al, in 2022. I agree with Holly – that Chris’ story with the Tigers has yet to play out, and that he may actually be trying to fix a mess that was years, even decades, in the making.”

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