THE HOLE IN THE MIDDLE

by Holly Horning

Well, we may just be seeing the first domino fall in the Javy Baez saga.

Baez went on the IL a couple days ago with lumbar spine inflammation.  But this doesn’t appear to be a run-of-the-mill injury.

Baez’s back was so inflamed that doctors could not perform a proper diagnosis so they are waiting for the swelling to go down.  Meanwhile, the team has scheduled a number of consultations for him with a variety of doctors.  He also underwent an MRI.

Javy said that he hopes to return for the 2nd half of the season despite him being put on the 10-day IL.

We are only now learning that Javy has had a history of lower back problems that go back to the Cubs.  It would appear that the Tigers knew this as it is standard protocol when you acquire another team’s player to get their medical records.  But they signed him anyway to a 6-year contract.  He’s now been on the IL at least 5 times due to back problems since joining Detroit.

What is alarming is that he now says that his back problems prevented him from hitting.  That the pain was too great and he couldn’t hit balls to 2 out of 3 ballpark locations.

Now he tells us.

It’s hard to know just how much the current Tigers knew about his condition given medical confidentiality rules.  Often, when players have health problems, they avoid the team doctors and seek their own so their teams don’t know the extent of their issues.

But wouldn’t you like to know if he was playing with a bad back and the Tigers knew that it was the cause of his poor offensive skills?

Wouldn’t you want to know why a team was keeping a player on the roster knowing that he was going to be an anchor because his bad back prevented him from hitting?  Then again, maybe they had to keep him playing because there was no one else with whom to replace him.

It’s still too soon to know the degree of the injury and whether rest and treatment will correct or modify it.  But will it heal enough for Baez to be able to hit?

Of equal concern is his fielding.  Once a plus defender, he’s now one of the worst on the team with a -4 DRS.  Is his back taking a toll on his fielding as well?

However you look at this concern, it’s hard to imagine that Baez can continue to play for the next 3.5 years.  After this season, he’s still owed $73 mill.

Can the Tigers build a foundation and establish a core of players as they say with Baez still on the roster – and playing 1 of the most important positions?

Conveniently, just as Javy goes on the IL, Ryan Kreidler just recently came off of it.  He’s spent the past couple years recovering from 2 hand surgeries to repair broken bones.

He had an exceptional spring training this year both at the plate and in the field.  He earned the starting SS slot but didn’t get it.  Ninety million reasons why.

Unfortunately, his regular season offensive stats are not great. But now he gets the best shot of his career to prove he’s worthy.

Kreidler will share the SS position going forward with Zach McKinstry.  A. J. Hinch was careful not to say he would inherit the position but if he plays and hits well, it could potentially happen.

At least for this year.

The Tigers have to be considering what to do with Baez.  Things are not getting better but they are coming to a head with the back injury.

They will be watching to see how Kreidler and McKinstry do at SS.  And if this works better than having Javy there, it would be logical for Baez to get less playing time when he returns.

I would imagine that the Tigers are lining up options not just for the rest of the year but going forward.  Baez hasn’t been able to make it through a season without going on the IL multiple times with a bad back.  And it’s only getting worse.

Will this be the factor that allows them to more easily cut ties after this season?

Will they decide that the tandem of Kreidler and McKinstry can get them through this year so they can move forward on bringing in a new SS for next year?

To be considered, although a longer shot, could the diagnosis of Baez turn out to be long-term bad news that prevents him from playing regularly or forces a retirement?

Surgery may just force that hand much as it did for Prince Fielder when the Tigers traded him to TX.  He failed to receive medical clearance and had to retire.  The Rangers had insurance on him and got out of almost all of his salary.  Unfortunately, the Tigers didn’t and still had to pay his remaining contract.

Do the Tigers have insurance on Baez?  That also may influence their strategy.

But what’s really interesting is a national article this week revealing that teams “misuse” their Injured Lists.  That players often go on it – or stay on it – when they really don’t need it.  All to give teams roster flexibility, bring up fresh arms and avoid burning options.  The vast majority of players interviewed said their teams did it regularly.

So will the Tigers do it?  Depending upon how well the tandem of Kreidler and McKinstry do, will the Tigers be tempted to keep Baez on the IL even though he could be cleared to play?

It will all be interesting to watch – and we’re going to need to see it play out.

But if the Tigers manage to stay within reach of a playoff spot, let’s hope that they will opt for the best solution, not for who has the biggest paycheck.

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THE BEST COMMENT FROM YESTERDAY’S BLOG:

Once again, so many great comments that we couldn’t select just one….

from McWatt: “Although I love him, I’d trade him at the end of this season for positional talent that would be in the lineup and contribute daily. With Boras as his agent I doubt a reasonable contract extension could ever be negotiated. Jobe and Olson, other arms in the pipeline, a free agent or two, and Fetter working his magic should keep the pitching solid.”

from golions1: “A team that says they can’t afford their best player is a team that isn’t serious about winning. That said, if Skubal suffers another arm injury it’s pop goes the weasel. I voted to keep him but I would quietly guage what he will bring at the deadline, and if it really is an outstanding return, I’d do it and spread the injury risk among several players.”

from midog1: “I would like to see them try for an extension this year before the season ends because this shows Skubal, the team and the fans that the Tigers want him and are trying to build a winner. If Boras prices him out of negotiations, then Boras becomes the bad guy. If they sign him for a number the Tigers can live with, we all win.”

from Sandy Kelly: “I for one would love to keep Skubal (he reminds me a lot of JV). I would like to see them give him and extension with a nice amount of money and see if we can keep him. If that doesn’t work out, then trade him (but we need to make sure we get someone of value who can play now).”

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