A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD?

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by Holly Horning

“Fame is a double-edged sword: It will make you gain status and popularity, but also lose motivation and creativity.” – Mouloud Benzadi

Last week, I wrote a blog on the trend of hungry players filling the Tigers’ roster.

THE HUNGRY HEART

The key takeaway is how these players take nothing for granted and put extra effort into their work in order to succeed.  Players like Kerry Carpenter, Mark Canha, Jason Foley, Tyler Holton, Andy Ibanez and Matt Vierling.

But what about the opposite?  What is the mindset and make up of those players who have always been ranked at or near the top?  The ones who are selected in the first rounds of the MLB draft?

The ones who are given millions of dollars just to sign with their team and have yet to play a single game?

Now that they’ve reached the top rung of the prospect pecking order, are they still hungry?  Are they as hungry as those drafted well beneath them?

Or do they feel that they have reached the summit and can relax a little bit now?

It’s interesting that many Tiger fans have top performance expectations of the team’s #1 draft picks.  An assumption really that these players are “can’t miss” and will automatically perform like a top MLB player. 

But why do we expect that they will be great?  Simply based upon the fact they were chosen first?  That they were the top players in high school or college without having faced the top talent in the game?

If we look at the Tigers’ list of #1 draft picks over the years, it’s not very impressive.  It starts in 1965 and their first pick was Gene Lamont.  (Really can’t make this stuff up.)

Moving forward, the rest of the list is forgettable until 1971 with Tom Veryzer.  He was followed by Lance Parrish in ’74 and Kirk Gibson in ’78.

But then, 32 years go by without a #1 draft pick becoming a top player in MLB.  Not even a solid one. 

It is only in 2004 that the Tigers chose Justin Verlander.

Since then, this has been the track record of #1 draft picks for the Tigers.

2005 – Cameron Maybin (traded in 2007)

2006 – Andrew Miller (traded in 2007)

2007 – Rick Porcello

2007 – Brandon Hamilton

2008 – Ryan Perry

2009 – Jacob Turner

2010 -Nick Castellanos

2010 – Chance Ruffin

2011 and 2012 – no 1st round picks

2013 – Jonathon Crawford

2013 – Corey Knebel (traded in 2014)

2014 – Derek Hill

2015 – Beau Burrows

2015 – Christin Stewart

2016 – Matt Manning

2017 – Alex Faedo

2018 – Casey Mize

2019 – Riley Greene

2020 – Spencer Torkelson

Not very impressive, is it?  Out of 18 selections (starting in 2005), 2 were traded within a year.  Another traded a year later.  Eight were out of baseball within a couple years of making the MLB level. At least 1 of them never reached the MLB level. 

Two had somewhat solid but not great careers with a variety of teams. 

And the remaining 5?  Two of them are struggling to stay in Detroit.  One has been fighting to stay healthy and finally trying to establish a track record after being drafted 6 years ago.  The other has a great amount of concern attached to him right now as he continues to struggle in his third year.

Riley Greene is the only remaining member who is showing better-than-average promise right now.

Granted, the Tigers have had a poor player development system and drafting program ever since Jim Campbell retired.  But many of these players were ranked at or near the top when they were drafted.  Other teams would probably have drafted many of them high up.

So what happened to them all?  Why have only 3 players from 2004 through 2015 meet the expectations of high performance?

Could that billing as a #1 draft player serve as an impediment?

Matt Manning hasn’t yet put it together in 3 years.  A record under .500 and an ERA of 4.23.  This year, he got demoted to Toledo.

Alex Faedo got moved to the bullpen.  His record is 5-11 with a 4.63 ERA after 2 years.

Casey Mize never took off before he got injured.  A 7-13 record and 5.37 ERA until this year.  Will TJ and back surgery end up being the magic bullets that get him back on track?

Riley Greene seems to be the most promising of the lot.  But he’s missed one-third of a season for each of the past 2 years due to injury.  Of course, something he can’t help but he does give us hope that he will continue to grow as a player if he stays healthy.

The last #1 draft pick to get promoted to Detroit is Spencer Torkelson.  We gave him a pass when he got prematurely promoted in 2022.  In 2023, he got off to another slow start, not hitting consistently or for power until late summer.  He finished the season with some nice batting numbers but struggled mightily with the glove.

Now that it’s his third year in Detroit, the concern is back.  He is the only regular player (with the exception of Colt Keith) to not have a single HR.  He has been struggling to stay above .200 in his BA.  He is currently sitting at a -5 DRS and remains as MLB’s worst defensive 1Ber.  He has already been benched twice this season for making multiple costly errors.

Is this simply another slow start?  Is this Tork’s m.o. ?  Will he start to take off soon or was last year an anomaly?

After a full month of games, we’re simply not seeing the progress that a #1 draft pick should be showing in his 3rd year in the majors.  At some point this year, we’re going to know more.  It’s still too early for judgement but the signs so far are not very encouraging.

One has to wonder whether those players not blessed with higher draft selections and required to work harder in order to get noticed used those factors as the key to their success.

Remember the ad for Avis car rentals “We try harder?”  They were the #2 company behind Hertz.  But it wasn’t too long before they became the top company.

Maybe the same thing applies to the hungry player listed above.

Let’s see what happens at the end of this year.  Maybe we’ll learn more about those last 5 #1 draft picks in Detroit and what their futures may hold.

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26 thoughts on “A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD?”

  2. I looked at every 1st round draft from 1979-2003 and it’s amazing to see the # of players who never made the majors or who ended up with a negative WAR. In that span the Tigers did have 3 picks that debuted with the team and had a career WAR greater than 10: Glenn Wilson, Travis Fryman, and Jeff Weaver. I have serious doubts Tork will reach their level.

    Liked by 7 people

  3. The Hall of Fame is full of players who weren’t #1 picks. Watching underrated players emerge is part of the fascination of the game. As that song from “Damn Yankees” says, “You’ve Gotta Have Heart”.

    Liked by 11 people

  4. Much stock is put into potential, durability, pedigree and baseball connections. Many high picks probably are satisfied with the money while the lesser paid players know they have to work harder to be taken seriously as true prospects. Higher drafted players usually get the nod over lower drafted players because of the investment made in them.

    Liked by 5 people

  5. To my untrained eye these 5 still have hunger in their eyes to succeed. All have been noted to be hard workers especially Mize and his long road back. Faedo has seemed to find a niche as a solid 2-3 inning reliever and Tork has been driving a lot of barrels that have died in the CoPa outfield.

    Liked by 3 people

      • I agree Rob but my take wasn’t stat based rather it’s my eye test watching games where he’s just missing more than a few. Maybe he needs to join Wencel and do more push-ups. My feeling is the questionable defense is in his head for prep and approach.

        Like

        • I don’t think he’s strong enough mentally and is succumbing to his poor play. He may break out of it, but defense should never wane even when hitting is sub-par. Poor defense just shows his head isn’t into it.

          Liked by 2 people

      • My “eyeball” test agrees with those stats you provided (thank you). My observation is that he’s not barreling up balls (mostly popups, SO’s and ground balls). Holly is right, his record so far this year is not encouraging.

        Liked by 1 person

  6. To me Torkelson’s 2023 season was just like finding money in a Easter Egg! I have no faith and his body language makes me guess in his mind he thinks to be the new Babe Ruth, but he isn’t and he is far away. His first enemy is his attitude and of course they will not make it public, but I think H&H are seriously planing on trading him.

    Liked by 8 people

    • I’ve been saying this all along, that he is not a Harris guy and Harris will look to trade him. The farm system is loaded with potential 1st basemen.

      Liked by 6 people

      • It’s frustrating to me that the Tigers are giving most of the 1B Toledo reps to Keston Hiura, who will be 28 in August and hasn’t been a more than mediocre MLB player in years while not trying 24 yr old and defensively homeless JHM at 1B.

        Liked by 2 people

  7. This analysis is long over due. Historically its probably the number one executive management weakness. It can’t just be bad luck and the methodology and approach is flawed. 

    Liked by 2 people

  8. Nobody from the 2020 draft has done very well for any team. So while Torkelson has been a disappointment, at least there isn’t a “we could have picked…..” scenario.

    Liked by 2 people

    • I remember when Alan Trammell said that Tork was “the real thing”, right before the 2020 draft. Assuming Torkelson is indeed a bust, this underscores Holly’s comment about these college and high school players never facing the highest level of competition, making it more challenging to truly evaluate who will actually succeed in the majors. Conversely, it’s nice to see Mize turning the corner.

      Liked by 2 people

  9. Holly’s observations make the point of drafting baseball amateurs as in investing in financial markets — there is no guarantee of a positive return. It would be interesting to see, over those 15 years, how many of each draft’s top ten became effective major league players, particularly those drafted after the Tigers. Believe it makes the case as to why Dombrowski was more than willing to trade prospects for proven major leaguers.

    Liked by 4 people

  10. Baseball scouting is such an inexact science. For every Ken Griffey Jr., Chipper Jones and Alex Rodriguez there are probably 300 Torkelsons and Shawn Abners and an even greater number of players such as Ronnie Walden and Mike Rossiter – high picks that never cracked an MLB roster.

    Liked by 2 people

  11. Perhaps they should have scouted the old Industrial Leagues here in Toledo back in the 60’s & 70’s. We may not have had the “Talent of the Major Leaguers” but we sure had “Heart” as defined above. The games were quite entertaining as rules interpretations and umpire judgement calls depended as much on who employed the “Boys in Blue” as it did what Abner Doubleday intended back when the game was developed. 🤗

    Liked by 1 person

  12. I had always assumed college players drafted would get to the majors faster and with more certainty because they were older, more developed and played against higher level competition than high schoolers. Isn’t college level of play similar to low level minor leagues? Except minor leaguers play every day vs 2-3 times a week.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. I think that we as fan tend to project character defects on players who are struggling. My impression is that Casey Mize, Riley Greene, Matt Manning, Alex Faedo and Spencer Torkelson are professionals trying to execute and improve their craft. Most have overcome serious injuries with tenacity and no one within the organization has implied they need to improve their inner drive.

    Liked by 4 people

  15. I think drive and heart are two of the most important traits an athlete can possess (assuming a base amount of talent). Having said that I don’t know how contract correlates to drive and heart. There are many players who make a ton of money and still have the drive to be the best.

    Liked by 1 person

  16. While there’s a .01 percent chance the Tigers decide Spencer Torkelson needs time in Toledo, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Keith and Meadows get a reset. Andy Ibanez is back up and Wenceel Perez is swinging a hot bat. If Urshela comes off the IR, the Tigers can move Vierling to center.

    Liked by 1 person

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